World Cup Betting Guide for Saturday 11/26/22: Could Demark Upset France?

After a 4-1 win in their first match, France is a heavy favorite over Denmark. Could there be an upset?

We all know that the World Cup doesn’t come around every year, and that can make for some difficult projecting.

Team qualifying samples are small, injuries are crucial, and opponent adjustments must be made before projecting out World Cup matches.

Thankfully, we have ways to do that, and numberFire’s World Cup betting model offers up game-specific projections for each stage of the World Cup.

All World Cup odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Here are the best bets for World Cup action on Saturday, November 26th.

(Note: all records are listed in win-loss-draw format rather than win-draw-loss. All expected goal data from FBRef.)

Tunisia (+115) vs. Australia (+260)

Draw odds: +220

Neither team here is better than 30th in the FIFA world rankings. Australia is 38th, and Tunisia is 30th. Neither played particularly tough qualifying schedules, either.

Tunisia played Denmark to a 0-0 draw in their opening match of the World Cup, a surprising score given a total of 2.3 expected goals (1.4 to 0.9 in favor of Denmark -- to clarify).

Australia scored an early goal on France but ultimately succumbed 4-1 in one of the more accurate portrayals of the expected goal battle (4.0 to 0.5) we saw in the opening days of World Cup action.

This should be one of the lower-scoring games we see on the weekend, thus making the under (2.5) an interesting play even at -158 odds. The true under odds on 2.5 goals, per my model, should be -180.

Poland (-135) vs. Saudi Arabia (+400)

Draw odds: +260

Is Saudi Arabia for real? They bested Argentina 2-1 in a World Cup shocker to open play on Tuesday. However, the expected goal data told an incredibly different story: 2.2 to 0.1 in favor of Argentina.

As for Poland, they drew 0-0 with Mexico and had an expected goal output of 0.9 while allowing one of 0.7 to Mexico.

There's a big gap in FIFA rankings between the two sides (Saudi Arabia is 51st, and Poland is 26th) -- and in adjusted qualifying goal differential (Poland is 15th among World Cup teams at +1.73, and Saudi Arabia is 29th at +1.12).

Once again, the under (2.5) looks promising at -138 odds. The true odds by my model should be -160, and neither team put forth a strong offensive showing in the opening round.

numberFire's model also loves Poland (-135) as a four-star play.

France (-135) vs. Denmark (+380)

Draw odds: +260

France survived an early "scare" by Australia and ended up winning 4-1 against the Socceroos, thanks to 4.0 expected goals.

Denmark couldn't convert on 1.4 expected goals and wound up in a scoreless draw with Tunisia, who is 30th in the FIFA rankings.

Notably, numberFire's model loves Denmark and has them ranked higher (9th) than France (10th), and that's not reflected in the FIFA world rankings, which have France 4th and Denmark 10th.

It's also not reflected in the betting odds with Denmark as a +380 underdog. Therefore, the model here is actually backing Denmark's moneyline (+380) while giving them a 35.8% win probability.

But the best bet available is Denmark +1.0 (+100). Our algorithm has that as a five-star play.

Argentina (-190) vs. Mexico (+550)

Draw odds: +310

Can Argentina bounce back? The oddsmakers say so and consider them -190 (around 65.5%) to beat Mexico, who is +550 (or 15.4% likely for a win).

Despite besting Saudi Arabia 2.2 to 0.1 in the expected goal department, Argentina lost their opener and now needs to make up ground.

numberFire's model thinks Argentina is 63.7% likely to win but doesn't indicate spread or moneyline value in this matchup.

Instead, it's the under (2.5) that has the most value. These teams combined for 2.2 and 1.6 expected goals in their openers; the long-term data suggests under 2.5 should be a good bet at -118 odds.