FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Helper for 9/17/22
As always, we're covering FanDuel's main slate, and for this week, that kicks off at 7:30 a.m. EST on Saturday. All betting lines come from FanDuel Sportsbook and FoxBet, and they may change after the article is published.
Manchester City (-310) at Wolves (+850)
Over 2.5 Goals: -172 | Most Likely to Score: Haaland (-160)
Bournemouth (+600) at Newcastle (-220)
Over 2.5 Goals: -122 | Most Likely to Score: Wilson (+110)
Leicester (+550) at Tottenham (-210)
Over 2.5 Goals: -174 | Most Likely to Score: Son/Kane (-125)
With the EPL schedule getting jumbled this weekend, we've got a Saturday main slate that's just three matches and is an all-day slate starting at 7:30 a.m. EST. All three matches start at various times (7:30 a.m. EST, 10 a.m., and 12:30 p.m.), so when the slate first locks for City-Wolves, we won't know starting lineups for any other game.
The betting odds point us in the direction of the three big favorites -- Manchester City, Newcastle, and Spurs. The masses will likely get their four attacking pieces from those three sides.
As is usually the case, City (-310) are the slate's biggest favorites. While it's not a cakewalk matchup at Wolves, City are -278 to score at least twice and +115 to get three-plus goals, both of which are slate-leading marks. Having to deal with a quick turnaround after playing Wednesday night in the Champions League, City might opt to rotate the squad, which could give us some value. Thankfully City are in the slate's first match, so we'll be able to get the City guys we want and budget from there.
Erling Haaland ($24; -160 anytime goal odds/-260 to score or assist) is a robot who won't stop scoring. He's taken almost no time to transition to City's style of play and has tallied 13 goals with an assist through eight combined EPL and UCL starts. He'll have slate-breaking upside every time out this season. Haaland -- who is on penalties -- has been very goal-reliant so far in DFS, but it doesn't matter if he scores at this rate.
After Haaland, Kevin De Bruyne ($20; +170/-170) has City's best goal/assist odds and ripped Wolves to shreds last season with four goals at Molineux. Julian Alvarez ($16; +105/-165) might get a start if City rotate, and he'd be a solid value pick. Riyad Mahrez ($17; +150/-150) and Phil Foden ($19; +185/-110) are plenty viable, as well.
Newcastle are the slate's second-biggest favorite (-220). The Magpies get Bournemouth at home, and the Cherries have struggled in their return to the top flight, allowing the fifth-most (10.3) expected goals (xG), per FBRef, while generating the fewest (2.7). Newcastle should roll, and they're -175 to score at least twice.
Alexander Isak ($18; +125/-140) has the top goal and goal/assist odds among the Magpies' expected starters. He's looked lively since his move to Tyneside and is a proven producer from his time in La Liga with Real Sociedad. Allan Saint-Maximin ($19; +250/-115) -- who is an injury question mark -- doesn't have top-notch goal odds, but he usually shoulders a lot of the creative responsibility for Eddie Howe's side.
Spurs are -210 to win at home versus Leicester. Tottenham were flying in attack at the end of 2021-22. We haven't seen that form from them this season, but they can flash it Saturday versus a Leicester side that has mustered a mere one point through six matches. This match is -174 to go over 2.5 goals, and Spurs are -227 to score two-plus times -- both of which are better numbers than what we see for Newcastle. That makes Tottenham the side I most want a piece of after City.
On a larger slate, the numbers aren't quite there to entice me to stack Harry Kane ($21; -125/-220) and Son Heung-min ($19; -125/-250), but on a three-match slate, it's fully viable. Son has started slowly after his stellar campaign a year ago, totaling zero goals and one assist in EPL play thus far. I think this is the perfect time to buy in, especially if his poor form is going to dampen his popularity at all. We know what kind of ceiling Son has in DFS. Kane is Kane, and he's always a solid play.
Richarlison ($18; +105/-155) has seized a starting role lately, but we could see Dejan Kulusevski ($18; +185/-135) get back into the lineup. I like either as a way to get exposure to Spurs.
Among the underdogs, Jamie Vardy ($16; +200/+140) intrigues me the most. He has the pace to hurt Spurs on the counter, and Tottenham have the worst clean-sheet odds (+140) among the three favorites.
Added time -- Leicester's James Maddison ($17; +420/+230) handles a lot of set-piece work for the Foxes. ... Wolves' Pedro Neto ($13; +600/+330) is a bet-on-talent play who should be an important piece for Wolves on counters versus City. ... Bruno Guimaraes ($12; +320/+145) has decent goal/assist odds for the Magpies and will be on the ball plenty against the Cherries if he's recovered from his hamstring injury.
With three sizable underdogs, we have a few high-floor center-backs to choose from.
Maximilian Kilman ($11) and Nathan Collins ($10) are expected to start at center-back for Wolves and should have their hands full. Leicester doesn't have a defender salaried above $9, so they're a good place to look. I'm most into Wout Faes ($9) and Jonny Evans ($8). Both of Bournemouth's likely starters at center-back -- Chris Mepham ($12) and Lloyd Kelly ($13) -- are salaried up but offer nice floors.
Tottenham's full-backs are very appealing, and three of Antonio Conte's options for the position have sweet goal/assist odds. WhoScored projects Matt Doherty ($9) and Ryan Sessegnon ($10) as the starters, and they're +120 and +250, respectively, to get a goal or assist. Ivan Perisic ($11) is +160 to score or tally an assist, so he's a stellar play if he starts.
Added time -- Joao Cancelo ($13) is +195 to score or assist. He's a high-upside stacking partner with any of City's attackers, especially Haaland. ... Newcastle's Fabian Schar ($14) and Kieran Trippier ($14) sit at the top of the position in terms of salary, and they've been DFS monsters this season, averaging 23.4 and 20.2 FanDuel points, respectively. ... Full-back Jonny ($8) is a salary-saving option from Wolves.
Nick Pope ($12) has the best clean-sheet odds as he's +100 to blank Bournemouth. As mentioned earlier, the Cherries have generated only 2.7 xG this season -- by far the fewest in the EPL. Couple the clean-sheet chances with Newcastle's -220 win odds and Pope's friendly salary, and he is a smashing keeper option.
Ederson ($14) and Hugo Lloris ($11) are the other favored goalies. Ederson is +105 to keep a clean sheet and -310 to win. Lloris is +140 to keep a clean sheet and -210 to get the win bonus. On paper, Ederson is definitely the better of the two, but if salary pushes you to Lloris, I get it.
Added time -- Jose Sa ($6) intrigues me. I think Wolves -- who have conceded the sixth-fewest xG -- put up a good fight, and the matchup with City gives Sa a great chance to see big save volume. He could post a serviceable fantasy score if he makes a handful of saves and keeps City to just a goal or two, and his salary gives you a lot of freedom.