FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Helper for 9/10/22
As always, we're covering FanDuel's main slate, and that kicks off at 10 a.m. EST on Saturday. All betting lines come from FanDuel Sportsbook and FoxBet, and they may change after the article is published.
Wolves (+950) at Liverpool (-340)
Over 2.5 Goals: -188 | Most Likely to Score: Salah (-120)
Aston Villa (+185) at Leicester (+145)
Over 2.5 Goals: -122 | Most Likely to Score: Vardy (+115)
Brentford (+200) at Southampton (+130)
Over 2.5 Goals: -122 | Most Likely to Score: Toney (+160)
Brighton (-125) at Bournemouth (+390)
Over 2.5 Goals: +112 | Most Likely to Score: Welbeck (+210)
Tottenham (+650) at Manchester City (-270)
Over 2.5 Goals: -205 | Most Likely to Score: Haaland (-165)
Three big-six teams are on this slate, and two of them -- Manchester City and Spurs -- play each other. That match offers gobs of firepower on each side, but I want to open up with Liverpool.
The Reds are in a real funk right now, and they just got drubbed 4-1 midweek at Napoli. Despite that, they're the slate's biggest favorite, listed at -340 to win at home versus Wolves. If you want to find reasons to fade or go light on Liverpool, you can, but the betting numbers say we need exposure to the Reds as Liverpool are -303 to score at least twice and +110 to go over 2.5 goals.
Mohamed Salah ($22; -120 to score/-240 to get a goal or assist) has the top goal odds on Liverpool. Even in the midst of what has felt like a quiet start to the season, he's bagged two goals with a pair of assists through four EPL matches.
Elsewhere for Liverpool, Diogo Jota ($19; +105/-170), Roberto Firmino ($18; +140/-150), Luis Diaz ($19; +155/-125) and Darwin Nunez ($21; -110/-200) all makes sense depending on who starts. Of that group, Nunez is the one I'm most interested in if he gets into the lineup, and he's a fun pivot off Salah, who figures to be popular. Nunez has sparkling goal and goal-or-assist odds, and he could provide the jolt the Reds' attack needs.
City and Spurs have played some super exciting matches in recent years, and this one should be much of the same as it's a slate-leading -205 to go over 2.5 goals. Each side gives us multiple high-upside options.
Despite the tough matchup, City are -270 to win, -278 to get at least two goals, and +110 to net three-plus. The +110 odds to score at least three times are the same as Liverpool's, and if it seems like the Reds are going to be a chalk stack, I want to load up on City.
We're barely into the season's second month, and I'm already running out of things to say about Erling Haaland ($23; -165/-270). His anytime goal odds pace the slate -- as do his goal-or-assist odds. He's scored 10 times in six EPL matches and just bagged a brace midweek in UCL action. He'll likely be chalk all season long, but if he's going to score at this kind of clip, you almost have to make room for him in your lineup.
City have several other enticing plays -- including Kevin De Bruyne ($20; +175/-170), Riyad Mahrez ($16; +150/-150), and Phil Foden ($18; +185/-110) -- who can be used instead of Haaland or stacked alongside him. Mahrez, if he starts, is my favorite play on the slate once you factor in salary. His $16 salary reflects his slow start, but at -150 to score or assist, Mahrez can be a constant threat versus Spurs.
On the Tottenham side, Son Heung-min ($17; +220/+130) is typically prime Messi whenever he faces City. He and Harry Kane ($19; +220/+145) have the ability to sting City on the counter, something they did repeatedly at the Etihad a year ago. Both come in with a little lower salary than usual, too, but Spurs are an ugly +260 to score two-plus times.
Outside of Liverpool and City, Brighton are the team I want to make sure I get a piece of. They are hitting the road to square off with Bournemouth. The Seagulls are losing manager Graham Potter to Chelsea, per reports, which is certainly a huge blow to the club. But oddsmakers still have Brighton at -125 to win and -105 to score at least twice -- both of which are the third-best marks on the slate.
The tricky thing with Brighton is that it's always tough to pin down where their goals may come from, which is evident by the fact that no one on their team is better than +210 to score. On the flip side, that typically keeps their draft percentages fairly low. Danny Welbeck ($16; +210/+140), Leandro Trossard ($17; +300/+145) and Pascal Groß ($18; +480/+125) are Brighton's standout options.
Of the remaining players, Jamie Vardy ($17; +115/-135) piques my interest the most. Leicester have been brutal thus far, but they're in a nice home matchup with Aston Villa. Vardy's -135 goal-or-assist odds are really nice, and Villa have conceded the sixth-most expected goals (xG), per FBRef.
Added time -- Ivan Toney ($18; +160/-105) is coming off a truly sublime hat trick, and the Brentford-Southampton match is -122 to go over 2.5 goals. ... On the other side of that one, Che Adams ($17; +190/+100) has solid goal-or-assist odds for the Saints. ... With Leicester struggling, Villa are worth a look. Philippe Coutinho ($13; +220/+100) is an excellent value option. ... Leicester's Harvey Barnes ($13; +270/+125) is another sweet value target. ... If Vardy doesn't start, which was the case last weekend, Patson Daka ($14; +155/-105) or Kelechi Iheanacho ($16; +165/+100) need to be on our radars.
I like the idea of using one of Liverpool's full-backs -- either Trent Alexander-Arnold ($15; +140 to score or assist) or Andrew Robertson ($11; +175).
Alexander-Arnold's +140 goal-or-assist odds are top-shelf for a defender, and if Wolves pack things in defensively, Liverpool will likely rely on him as a key creative force. Robertson splits corners with Alexander-Arnold, and while he doesn't have the same upside as his teammate, Robertson is easy to love at this salary.
Solly March ($12; +240) is off to a great start this season. He's averaging 13.9 FanDuel points per match and has cleared 19.5 points in half of his six outings. He chips in defensively and has been very involved going forward, putting eight shots on goal, which leads all EPL defenders. He will have chances to get forward at Bournemouth. If Brighton's new manager changes the system from three at the back, that would ding March's outlook.
Tottenham's Eric Dier ($10) is one of my favorite plays at the position. He offers almost zero attacking juice but should be extremely busy at City. He scored 11.7 FanDuel points at Chelsea earlier this year, and I think his floor is a touch higher in this matchup. I'll gladly take 12 to 14 points and spend more salary on attackers.
Nathan Collins ($10) and Maximilian Kilman ($11), Wolves' center-backs, also offer high floors. Playing at Anfield, they should be under siege.
Added time -- If Tariq Lamptey ($7) gets a start, he's someone I'd use in a lot of lineups. He's +300 to score or assist and would have appealing upside at Bournemouth. ... Joao Cancelo ($14) has to be on our radar in every City match. He's +190 to score or assist, and while I prefer Liverpool's full-backs, Cancelo has elite upside every time out. ... Luke Thomas ($7) could find some attacking joy against Villa and comes at a bargain-basement salary.
Alisson ($14), Ederson ($13) and Robert Sanchez ($12) have the best win odds as well as the best clean-sheet chances.
Alisson is -340 to win and +105 to blank Wolves -- both of which are slate-best marks. Ederson is -270 to win and +125 to record a clean sheet. Sanchez is +135 to keep a clean sheet and -125 to win. You can make a strong case for any of them.
With City facing a top-six foe and Liverpool struggling, the masses may opt to take Sanchez for the salary savings and matchup. That makes a lot of sense. However, I don't like swallowing chalk at keeper, so if I get my goalie from this trio, I'll go with Ederson or Alisson.
The rest of the position is wide open. Outside of the aforementioned three, Gavin Bazunu ($11) has the best clean-sheet odds (+220). Southampton are at home to Brentford, and the Saints are slight +130 favorites.
Added time -- Brighton will likely create a lot of chances, but their attackers aren't that great. That makes Bournemouth's Neto ($8) a decent option at his value salary. The Cherries-Seagulls match is a slate-worst +112 to go over 2.5 goals. ... Jose Sa ($6) will probably be under barrage at Anfield, giving him lots of potential save volume. If you're fading Liverpool due to their form, you could lean all the way into it and plug in Wolves' keeper. ... Hugo Lloris ($7) figures to be busy at City, and he plays behind a defense that has conceded the third-fewest xG thus far. He's not a bad dart throw.