FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Helper for 8/27/22
Everton (+270) at Brentford (+100)
Over 2.5 Goals: +104 | Most Likely to Score: Toney (+135)
Leicester (+650) at Chelsea (-240)
Over 2.5 Goals: -148 | Most Likely to Score: Havertz (+150)
Bournemouth (+2200) at Liverpool (-900)
Over 2.5 Goals: -280 | Most Likely to Score: Salah (-160)
Leeds (+310) at Brighton (-115)
Over 2.5 Goals: -114 | Most Likely to Score: Welbeck (+200)
Crystal Palace (+1500) at Manchester City (-600)
Over 2.5 Goals: -245 | Most Likely to Score: Haaland (-210)
Fulham (+850) at Arsenal (-320)
Over 2.5 Goals: -220 | Most Likely to Score: Jesus (-115)
Last week, we were hurting for stars on a main slate that lacked big-six sides. This week, with four big-six teams in action, we've got too many top guys from which to choose -- to the point where some good players in nice matchups will slip through the cracks. That makes this a really fun slate.
Liverpool (-900 to win), Manchester City (-600), Chelsea (-240) and Arsenal (-320) are all sizable favorites, and I'm guessing the vast majority of lineups will get their four attackers from these squads.
The Reds are struggling, but I'm not expecting that to lower their popularity at all. They're in an ideal bounce-back spot at home against a Bournemouth side that is in the midst of a brutal run of games. The Cherries gave up four to City in Matchweek 2 and three to Arsenal last weekend. And then they went to pens midweek in cup action. They're probably tired, and they'd be up against it even if they were 100%.
With so many good options available, it should spread out draft percentages. If there's one mega-chalk play, it'll be Liverpool's Mohamed Salah ($23; -160 anytime goal odds/-340 to score or assist). It feels like Salah has been quiet to start the year, yet he's bagged a pair of goals. If the Reds nuke Bournemouth, Salah will surely be involved.
With Diogo Jota expected to be out, Roberto Firmino ($19; +110/-195) and Luis Diaz ($19; +120/-170) should again make up Liverpool's front three alongside Salah. You can make a strong case for them, and I'll be tempted to stack them while fading Salah. I just hate swallowing chalk on a large slate where we should see a bunch of goals. With that said, maybe Salah won't be as popular as I think due to this next guy being at the same salary.
Man City are the other team I will make sure I get exposure to. Palace aren't a pushover, but City are an eye-popping -600 favorite. Erling Haaland ($23; -210/-350) has the slate's best goal odds -- as well as the top goal or assist odds. He and City haven't yet fully adjusted to each other, and he's still netted three goals in three games. Haaland is going to get so many chances this season, and he offers monster upside every time he's out there.
As usual with City, they have a slew of other quality plays who you can pair with Haaland or stack instead of him. Kevin De Bruyne ($22; +140/-220) and Phil Foden ($20; +155-/135) are superb picks, while Ilkay Gundogan ($18; +210/+130) got a boost in salary, which likely dings his popularity a good bit. Rodri ($11; +750/+410) is the only low-salary expected starter for City, but his odds of scoring or assisting are not good. Julian Alvarez ($15; -120/-210) would be a much-needed source of value if he starts.
Arsenal haven't yet dropped points, and a London derby versus Fulham puts them in an appealing spot. Fulham have started well, but they've also conceded two goals apiece to Liverpool and Brentford. The Gunners should find joy.
Gabriel Jesus ($21; -115/-210) appears headed for a breakout campaign after his move this summer. Gabriel Martinelli ($19; +155/-135) has looked like an improved player so far, too. But I have the most interest in Bukayo Saka ($17; +125/-190). The goal or assist odds are outstanding, and the salary is easy to like. Plus, he's been fairly quiet thus far, so he might not be very popular.
Of the four big favorites, Chelsea are the side I'm least interested in due to their current form. But the masses will likely feel the same, and the Blues can flip a switch and toast a struggling Leicester while coming in at low draft percentages. They're a great GPP target. It's just hard to know who to lock in on for goals.
Kai Havertz ($17; +150/-115) and Raheem Sterling ($18; +180/-120) have the Blues' top goal odds, but those odds pale in comparison to the odds for the top attackers on the other big-six sides on this slate. Mason Mount ($19; +230/-105) hasn't taken a free kick and is splitting corner duties. That makes him a tougher-than-usual sell right now. Jorginho ($14; +340/+200) is a dart throw at a penalty goal.
Added time -- Ivan Toney ($18; +135/-130) won't be popular, and this is a delicious home matchup for him against the Toffees. Toney will be on pens and is one of my favorite plays on the slate. I love the idea of stacking him with the Bees' keeper. ... The Leeds-Brighton match is going to be a fun watch in real life but might not be great for DFS. Danny Welbeck ($15; +200/+135) has the match's top goal odds among expected starters. If Neal Maupay ($12; +165/+105) starts, he would be in a lot of my lineups... Playing at an out-of-form Chelsea, Jamie Vardy ($16; +220/+155) makes sense as a GPP play.
I love using high-floor center-backs on from underdogs as a way to pinch pennies at defender and have as much salary as I can for attackers. There are plenty of underdogs on this slate.
Bournemouth, Palace, Fulham, and Leicester should see wave after wave of attacks. Among those teams, Adam Smith ($9), Daniel Amartey ($7), Jonny Evans ($8), Joel Ward ($9), and Marc Guehl ($10) all fit the bill and are salaried at $10 or below.
If you want to take the opposite route and roster high-upside full-backs, there is quite a crop from which to pick.
Trent Alexander-Arnold ($15; +105 to score or assist), Andrew Robertson ($13; +135), Reece James ($15; +166), Joao Cancelo ($14; +160), and Oleksandr Zinchenko ($13; +260) are going to spend gobs of time in attacking positions with their teams likely to dominate the ball. They're excellent plays if you can find the salary.
Added time -- Kyle Walker ($7) is just +500 to assist, so there's a reason his salary is where it is. But using one of him or John Stones ($8) frees up salary, and they could get a five-point clean-sheet bonus. ... Joe Gomez ($8) is the same kind of option from Liverpool. If they don't get the clean-sheet bonus, they won't produce much in all likelihood. They're salary-saving punts. ... Ben Chilwell ($11) is +230 to score or assist if he finds his way into Chelsea's left-back spot.
The keepers with the best chances of getting a win bonus are Alisson ($15), Ederson ($14), Aaron Ramsdale ($13), and Edouard Mendy ($12). These four also have the best clean-sheet chances.
On the negative, salary is super precious on this slate, and if I want the best attackers I can get, which I do, then goalie is one of two places I can save. Secondly, all four figure to be lacking in save volume, so if they concede a goal, they won't have much of anything to fall back on outside of the win bonus.
So, in short, I'll be looking elsewhere for a keeper in most of my lineups while acknowledging those four at the top plays.
David Raya ($11) is the best of the rest in my eyes. He's at home against an Everton side that have mustered only two goals thus far. The match has the worst over 2.5 goal odds (+104). Raya should be fairly active, too; he's had to make 13 saves already through three matches.
Added time -- Robert Sanchez ($11) checks some boxes. Leeds should force him into action, and he's playing behind a stout Brighton defense, one that's conceded just 2.6 expected goals thus far, per FBRef. ... Of the keepers who are huge underdogs, Vicente Guaita ($6) is the one I can most stomach. While using any keeper against City could backfire massively, Palace are decent defensively, and we know City gives Guaita the potential for colossal save volume. If he can keep City to two or three goals, he likely produces a respectable score at a basement-level salary.