Premier League Betting Guide: Matchweek 3
Which Premier League matches offer betting value on Soccer odd this week?
Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see the most updated numbers.
Leicester vs. Southampton
Southampton and Draw -110
Leicester finished 12 points ahead of Southampton last season, but while the Saints are not a dominant force in the EPL, they are a tricky team to earn 3 points against.
Last season Southampton went 9W-13D-16L, giving them a 57.9% win/draw rate on the year despite their 15th-place finish. On the other hand, Leicester won only 14 games last campaign, giving them a 36.8% win rate. Both stats indicate a draw/win seems likely for Southampton in this fixture.
So far this season, Leicester and Southampton have had almost identical starts, both going 0-1-1. Both teams have conceded six goals, and Leicester has scored four, compared to three for Southampton. Expect this to be a tight game with a high chance of a draw.
Everton vs Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest and Draw -125
Everton were legitimate relegation candidates last season, finishing with 39 points in 38 matches, only 4 points ahead of the relegation zone. Everton won 11 games (28.9%) last year, and they have started this season 0-0-2. There is no denying they are a below-average team, and with Dominic Calvert-Lewin out, the Toffees really shouldn't be expected to win against anyone.
Nottingham Forest are a promoted side, but they've started the season 1-0-1, nabbing a surprising win against West Ham last weekend. Their win was not a fluke, either, as they outshot the Hammers, 6-5, in shots on target.
Forest can keep their momentum going in what is a good opportunity for them to get a result against lowly Everton.
Manchester United vs Liverpool
Manchester United and Draw +130
Manchester United are off to an abysmal start this season, losing each of their first two games -- including a 4-0 beatdown at the hands of Brentford last weekend. However, United’s -5 goal difference is unkind, as their expected goal (xG) differential, per FBRef, is only -0.9. United have shipped six goals but conceded an xG of just 3.3. On the flip side, they've scored only once despite amassing 2.5 xG.
Obviously, this is still not where United want to be, but their poor start is not quite as awful as fans are making it out to be.
Last season, United went 10-5-4 at home, giving them a 78.9% win/draw rate. Liverpool are a top team, but the Reds are struggling, as well, posting a 0-2-0 record against Fulham and Crystal Palace, two sides that project to finish in the bottom half of the table this season.
United are having serious issues, but playing in front of their home crowd in a derby match against a side that's also out of form, the Red Devils are capable of getting a result.