FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Helper for 8/20/22
Nottingham Forest (+320) at Everton (-110)
Over 2.5 Goals: +100 | Most Likely to Score: Rondon (+195)
Southampton (+300) at Leicester (-120)
Over 2.5 Goals: -152 | Most Likely to Score: Vardy (-115)
Aston Villa (+190) at Crystal Palace (+145)
Over 2.5 Goals: +108 | Most Likely to Score: Edouard/Mateta (+180)
Brentford (+190) at Fulham (+145)
Over 2.5 Goals: -106 | Most Likely to Score: Mitrovic (+115)
Arsenal (-240) at Bournemouth (+650)
Over 2.5 Goals: -124 | Most Likely to Score: Jesus (+115)
Personally, I'm always fond of main slates that don't have many big-six sides. We get one of those on Saturday as Arsenal are the lone big-six side in action.
We have to start with the Gunners, who are a slate-leading -190 to score at least two goals. Playing at promoted Bournemouth, Arsenal are the biggest favorite of the slate, and their -240 moneyline price hits the -233 threshold we're after when looking for teams to stack. Arsenal have certainly looked the part so far, netting six goals through two matches, including four in a win over Leicester last weekend.
Gabriel Jesus ($22; +115 to score) has the Gunners' best goal odds and is -150 to score or assist. Coming off a two-goal outing in the aforementioned match against the Foxes, Jesus will surely be chalky, and with his anytime goal odds not at an elite clip, Jesus is someone I'll strongly consider fading as long as it seems like he'll be popular, which I'm sure he will be. With that said, he has as good of a ceiling as anyone on the slate.
I like the idea of stacking Arsenal's Gabriel Martinelli ($20; +190) and Bukayo Saka ($19; +160) instead. Both have solid goal odds and have split corners duties this season. Martinelli has bagged a goal in both matches, totaling 33.3 and 24.3 FanDuel points. He'll likely be a popular play but probably not as popular as Jesus is. Saka has been quiet thus far but is -145 to score or assist. He's one of my favorite plays of the slate.
You can also lump Martin Odegaard ($18; +310) and Emile Smith-Rowe ($250) into the group of stackable Arsenal forwards/midfielders, and they won't see the lofty draft percentages of the Gunners who we've already rattled off. Odegaard is +105 to get a goal or an assist while Smith-Rowe is +135. It's likely just one of them gets into the starting lineup.
The only other team better than -115 to score twice is Leicester. The Foxes are -120 to win at home versus a Southampton side that has permitted 3.6 expected goals (xG), per FBRef, the second-most in the league through two matches. It's a continuation of what we saw in 2021-22, when the Saints allowed the sixth-most xG.
Jamie Vardy ($20; -115) is still the go-to forward for Leicester, and he carries the slate's best goal odds. He's yet to put a shot on goal this season but can bust out in this spot. He'll also be on penalties, which aids his fantasy outlook. At -185 to score or assist, Vardy is an excellent pick.
James Maddison ($19; +200) is the other top play from Leicester. He's +100 to score or assist and handles a lot of set-piece work for the Foxes. He's averaged 26.3 FanDuel points per game this campaign and got a goal last time out.
Southampton (-115 to score at least twice) and Everton (-110) are worth a look, too, and both offer some nice value options.
Everton are -110 to win at home against promoted Forest, a side that has surrendered the most xG (4.1) in the league through two rounds. The Toffees will be desperately seeking three points in what should be one of their softest matchups of the year. Anthony Gordon ($16; +260), Demari Gray ($13; +350) and Dwight McNeil ($15; +440) have been operating as a front three. Gray is easy to like at his salary.
The Leicester-Southampton match is a slate-best -150 to go over 2.5 goals, so the Saints' side is live, as well. Che Adams ($15; +240) is a viable mid-salaried forward. James Ward-Prowse ($18; +400) is a much better DFS play than his goal odds might have you believe thanks to his set-piece duties. JWP has already flashed his ceiling this year, creating four chances and scoring a goal in Matchweek 1 en route to 35.9 FanDuel points in a tough matchup at Spurs.
Added time -- Among the players I haven't yet mentioned, Aleksandar Mitrovic ($18; +115) is the one I'm most into. Fulham host Brentford in what looks like a fairly even contest, and with a salary that puts him in the range of Arsenal's and Leicester's studs, Mitrovic could slip through the cracks on this slate. ... Eberechi Eze ($15; +430) might be headed toward a breakout year as a playmaker for Palace, who are home to Villa in another pretty even affair. ... Sticking with Palace, Odsonne Edouard ($15; +180) has the match's top goal odds and comes at a modest salary. ... Danny Ings ($17: +230) has Villa's best goal odds.
Oleksandr Zinchenko ($15; +330 to score or assist) looks like the best upside play. Arsenal's new left-back went off for 29.7 FanDuel points in the opener, notching an assist. He's a nice +330 to score or assist at Bournemouth, though he won't be someone I prioritize.
Leicester's James Justin ($8; +420) and Timothy Castagne ($12; +350) are stellar choices against Southampton, and Justin is someone I'll have a lot of. The Foxes' three-at-the-back formation, assuming that's what they go with again, gives these two chances to push forward down the wings, and the Saints can be open at times defensively. I like both, and you can pair either with Vardy.
Everton have deployed Vitalii Mykolenko ($10; +420) and Nathan Patterson ($9; +250) at full-back in each of their first two fixtures. While neither has found much attacking joy in matches against Villa and Chelsea, they can get forward more against Forest. Patterson's goal or assist odds are very enticing for $9.
Added time -- Antonee Robinson ($10) is a serviceable value target. Playing full-back for Fulham, Robinson should have chances to get forward at home against Brentford, and he's shown well so far this season, averaging 14.4 FanDuel points. ... At times in the past, Lucas Digne ($11; +380) has been salaried up with the top-shelf attacking full-backs. He is a bet-on-talent play at this $11 salary. Despite a middling matchup at Palace, Digne is +360 to score or assist.
Aaron Ramsdale ($14) and Jordan Pickford ($12) stand out at keeper.
Ramsdale has the best win (-240) and clean-sheet (+104) odds. Both of those numbers lap the field. He deserves to be the highest-salaried option. Bournemouth have mustered a mere 0.6 xG so far despite scoring twice.
Pickford has a nice matchup, too. At home against Forest, Pickford is +158 to keep a clean sheet -- by far the second-best odds. However, he's only -110 to win, which takes a little of the shine off his outlook. Forest have generated the fourth-fewest xG (1.7).
On the opposite side of the Forest-Everton clash, Dean Henderson ($8) can hit as a value target. Everton have been blah in attack, tallying just 1.9 xG so far, so this shouldn't go horribly wrong for Henderson. And playing behind a suspect Forest defense, Henderson should see gobs of save volume just about every single match this year. He's amassed 11 saves through two weeks.
Added time -- The Palace-Villa game has some quality attacking talent but also has the worst over 2.5 goal odds (+108), so it's a decent place to look for a clean sheet. Vicente Guaita ($10) and Emiliano Martinez ($10) are +205 and +250, respectively, to post a clean sheet. ... Marek Rodak ($11) recorded a clean sheet last time out at Wolves, and he's +225 to repeat that at home versus Brentford. ... Salaried between Pickford and Ramsdale and with Leicester conceding six times through two matches, Danny Ward ($13) could go overlooked a bit, but Leicester are the slate's second-biggest favorite (-120).