Premier League Betting Guide: Matchweek 1
Which Premier League matches offer betting value on Soccer odd this week?
Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see the most updated numbers.
Newcastle vs. Nottingham Forrest
Newcastle to Win -160
Newcastle had a mediocre season last year, going 13W-10D-15L and finishing in 11th place in the table. However, the Magpies finished the season strong with a 12-1-5 record in their final 18 matches.
They will look to build on this momentum and put together a more complete season this year, and they start off with a favorable matchup at home against newly promoted Nottingham Forrest.
Nottingham gained promotion via the playoff, as they finished 4th in the Championship last season. Forrest are listed at +110 to get relegated this season, tying them with Fulham for the second-best odds.
The expectation is clearly for Forrest to be a bottom-tier team, and Newcastle should expect to earn the full three points in their season opener.
Leeds vs. Wolves
Leeds to Win +130
Wolves finished seven spots ahead of Leeds in the table last season, but Leeds actually finished ahead in xGD (expected goal difference) at -23.0 compared to -24.4 for Wolves. Both teams were towards the bottom of the league in xGD, with Wolves in 18th and Leeds in 17th, indicating that Wolves may have overachieved last season.
In addition, Wolves did not add much to their roster this offseason with their main acquisition being Nathan Collins from Burnley, who only appeared in one league game last season. Leeds, on the other hand, added Brenden Aaronson, Rasmus Kristensen, Marc Roca, and Tyler Adams, all of whom could feature in the starting lineup for the opening game.
Leeds and Wolves were about even last season in terms of expected goal difference, and Leeds have the advantage of home field and a more active offseason. They should have a good chance to pull off the win in this game.
Bournemouth vs. Aston Villa
Aston Villa to Win +100
Bournemouth are newly promoted from the Championship last season, and they are widely expected to be the worst team in the league. FanDuel odds have Bournemouth at -210 to be relegated, well ahead of the next highest odds of Nottingham Forrest and Fulham (+110). Bournemouth also have the longest odds to win the EPL title at +100000!
Aston Villa are not a great team, as they went 13-6-19 last season. However, Villa did have success against the bottom-five teams, going 6-2-2 in those matches. Bournemouth certainly figures to finish bottom-five based on preseason expectations.
Seven of Villa’s 13 wins came away from home last season, so playing on the road should not be a major barrier. Villa are the better team, and they should win here.