FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Helper for 8/6/22
Nottingham Forest (+490) at Newcastle United (-160)
Over 2.5 Goals: +102 | Most Likely to Score: Wilson (+115)
Southampton (+800) at Tottenham (-290)
Over 2.5 Goals: -162 | Most Likely to Score: Kane (-140)
Wolves (+220) at Leeds (+130)
Over 2.5 Goals: +106 | Most Likely to Score: Bamford (+150)
Aston Villa (+100) at Bournemouth (+270)
Over 2.5 Goals: +100 | Most Likely to Score: Ings (+175)
Chelsea (-160) at Everton (+470)
Over 2.5 Goals: +102 | Most Likely to Score: Havertz (+190)
The season's first main slate gives us three sizable favorites in Tottenham (-290), Chelsea (-160) and Newcastle (-160).
Spurs figure to be super popular, and they're the only side that fits the criteria we're seeking when looking for teams to stack. Their match has by far the best over 2.5 goal odds (-162), and they are -250 to score at least twice. No other side is better than -135 to score two-plus goals.
Harry Kane ($21; -140 anytime goal odds) and Son Heung-min ($22; -135) are the obvious Spurs pairing to stack, and both should be very chalky. The star duo accounted for a combined 40 goals and 24 assists two campaigns ago and 40 goals with 16 assists last season. There's no reason to expect them to be anything other than outstanding again this year.
Facing a Saints side that allowed the sixth-most expected goals (xG) last year, per FBRef, Son and Kane could go nuts. They have the best goal odds on the slate. Of the two, I side with Kane due to his penalty duties, although he's usually more popular than Son.
Dejan Kulusevski ($17; +175) is a way to get in on the fun with Spurs while also saving some salary and dodging some chalk. Kulusevski joined mid-season last year and hit the ground running, totaling five goals with eight assists. He's one of my favorite plays on the slate.
Newcastle was playing excellently over the second half of last year, and they start this season with a soft home matchup versus Forest, a promoted side. From January 15th on last year, Newcastle lost to only one side outside of the big six (Everton). With the exception of games against City and Liverpool, the Magpies scored at least one goal in each of their last six matches. They are big home favorites in this one.
Callum Wilson ($18; +115) has the top goal odds for Newcastle and is the likely first choice on pens. Bruno Guimares ($15; +190) and Allan Saint-Maximin ($15; +240) are good options, as well, and I'm intrigued by Joelinton ($13; +260), who found a groove last year in midfield. He gets you exposure to one of the slate's favorites, and the salary helps you stack Tottenham.
Chelsea -- who are in the lone match with a late start -- might not be as popular as Newcastle are, and that makes the Blues super appealing at Everton in a match in which they could cruise if they're at their best. Goodison is always a tough road game, but Chelsea have vastly superior talent to the Toffees.
Chelsea's projected front three, according to WhoScored, are Kai Havertz ($19; +190), Raheem Sterling ($20; +230) and Mason Mount ($20: +290). Mount's goal odds aren't good for someone with a top-shelf salary, but he is typically very active on set pieces. He finished with 11 goals and 10 assists last year.
Attackers from any of the other sides should fly under the radar. Of the rest, Danny Ings ($16; +175) and Ollie Watkins ($17; +185) stand out for Villa, who are +100 to win at Bournemouth, another promoted squad. Watkins totaled 11 goals and two assists last season, though Bournemouth permitted the fewest goals a year ago in the Championship (39 in 46 matches).
Added time -- Sticking with Villa, Phillipe Coutinho ($19; +195) is a high-upside pivot who won't be popular given who else is in his salary range. Coutinho netted five goals with three assists in 16 starts with Villa last campaign. ... Patrick Bamford ($16; +155) has the best goal odds in the Leeds-Wolves match. No one else is better than +270 to score. ... Daniel Podence ($14; +420) is a decent value pick from Wolves. Leeds allowed the second-most goals in the league in 2021-22.
Kieran Trippier ($14), Ivan Perisic ($13) and Chelsea's full-backs have to be on our radar as high-upside defenders.
Trippier started well with Newcastle last year before getting hurt. At home versus Forest, he should have plenty of chances to bomb forward, and he's also their main corner and free kick taker. That's a lot of checked boxes.
Perisic isn't a lock to start, but if Antonio Conte turns to him at wing-back, Perisic is a smashing play. He's actually a pristine +170 to score a goal. I'll have plenty of him if he starts, and he would be a great stacking partner with Kane or Son.
Two of Reece James ($15), Ben Chilwell ($15) and Marcos Alonso ($14) will likely start for Chelsea. They have great ceilings at Everton and should have a lot of opportunities to push forward. James is my favorite play of the bunch. He averaged 17.2 FanDuel points per game last season and amassed five goals with nine assists.
Southampton's Jan Bednarek ($13) and Mohammed Salisu ($13) are high-floor plays who should be under siege at Tottenham.
I'll be on the lookout for high-floor plays with lower salaries. That's where Forest could come in handy. Scott McKenna ($10), Joe Worrall ($8) and Moussa Niakhate ($11) are listed as projected starters at center-back in Forest's three-at-the-back formation. They should be active at St. James' Park, and I'll sacrifice some upside at defender to get the attackers I want.
Added time -- James Tarkowski ($15) was usually a high-floor play when he was at Burnley. It should be the same story for his first game at Everton as the Toffees figure to spend a lot of time without the ball. ... Matt Targett ($12) will probably be opposite Trippier for Newcastle and offers a respectable ceiling in a friendly matchup. ... Leeds' defenders used to be solid plays in Marcelo Bielsa's system. I don't know if that'll be true under new management. Still, Robin Koch ($8) will be among the lowest-salaried starters.
The goalies for the three favorites profile as the best plays.
Hugo Lloris ($14) has the slate's best win (-290) and clean sheet (+110) odds. He ended last season with three straight clean sheets, and Lloris can get another in the home matchup against the Saints. With that said, Southampton is OK going forward, racking up the 11th-most xG last year.
Nick Pope ($13) and Martin Dubravka ($13) are battling it out for the number-one role on Newcastle. Whoever starts against Forest is a good option. Newcastle are +114 to keep a clean sheet and -160 to win -- both of which are second-best on the slate.
Chelsea's Edouard Mendy ($12) is my favorite keeper play. Not only is he the lowest-salaried of the big favorites, he's probably the best real-life goalie of the bunch. On top of that, with Richarlison gone and Dominic Calvert-Lewin hurt, Everton's attack is pretty toothless at the moment. Mendy is +122 to blank the Toffees and -160 to win.
Added time -- Emiliano Martinez ($11) is +178 to keep a clean sheet at Bournemouth and +100 to get the win bonus. He's easy to like at the salary, but I'd prefer to find the extra $1 for Mendy. ... Jose Sa ($10) and Illan Meslier ($10) are fine dart throws at a clean sheet in a Wolves-Leeds match that is a slate-worst +106 to go over 2.5 goals. Both attacks look pretty meh on paper. Wolves' defense is a lot easier to trust than Leeds'.