FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Helper for 5/7/22
As always, we're covering FanDuel's main slate, and that kicks off at 10 a.m. EST on Saturday.
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We've got a fun six-match main slate, and there are games at three different time slots. It should be fun, but it does make for extra work Saturday on our end -- and it adds the element of there being four starting lineups we won't know prior to the 10 a.m. EST games locking.
Tottenham, Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United are all on the slate, so there's no shortage of headline names. Chelsea are home to Wolves, United are at Brighton and Liverpool host Spurs.
Chelsea are the side in the best spot. Wolves have had another solid campaign, but they've struggled defensively in the back half of the season. Wolves have permitted at least 1.4 expected goals (xG), per FBRef, in 10 of their last 13 matches. They shipped 2.7 xG in their last match against a big-six side (Arsenal) and have conceded three goals apiece to Leeds and Brighton in recent weeks. In short, Wolves are there for the taking, and Chelsea has the talent to net a few goals.
Kai Havertz ($18), Timo Werner ($17) and Mason Mount ($20) have been starting up front for the Blues. Mount handles some set-piece work, boosting his floor and ceiling. He paces Chelsea in both goals (10) and assists (9) in EPL play.
We need exposure to the Reds, as well. Despite an exhausting schedule, Liverpool will be full-go as they try to track down Manchester City for the league title, and even if they rotate some in attacking spots, whoever the Reds bring into the lineup will be a quality player who is a strong option. Spurs are no pushover and have a ton to play for, too, but Liverpool are just too good, especially at Anfield.
Three of Mohamed Salah ($21), Luis Diaz ($18), Sadio Mane ($19) and Diogo Jota ($19) figure to start in the front three. All of them are excellent choices. Salah is typically mega chalk on every slate, but given his meh recent form, the larger slate (plenty of viable alternatives) and the tougher-than-usual matchup, he might not be crazy popular. Liverpool are capable of throttling anyone at Anfield.
Between Spurs and United, I don't have too much interest in either. If I had to grab a player from one of these two sides, I think I'd opt for Harry Kane ($19) or Heung-min Son ($20) from Tottenham. They've shown time and again they can be lethal on the counter. Spurs probably won't have much of the ball at Anfield, and these two might be able to get through Liverpool's high line a few times. I don't think I'll go here much, though.
Crystal Palace are in a really great matchup at home versus Watford. The Hornets just lost a back-breaking match to Burnley last weekend and are all but certain to be back in the Championship next season. They've allowed 69 goals in 34 league outings, including multiple goals in five consecutive matches.
Conor Gallagher ($17) and Wilfried Zaha ($18) will be deservedly popular picks from Palace. Don't sleep on Jean-Philippe Mateta ($14) and Michael Olise ($14), though. Both guys come at friendly salaries and shouldn't see as high of a draft percentage as Zaha and Gallagher do.
Added time -- Ollie Watkins ($18) and Philippe Coutinho ($19) are savvy plays from Villa, who are at Burnley. While the Clarets are in the midst of a hard-to-believe run, Villa should be able to create chances. ... James Ward-Prowse ($18) has been a standout performer for Southampton, and their match with Brentford could turn into a fantasy-friendly affair. ... On the flip side of that one, Ivan Toney ($17) has shown a huge ceiling and should go mostly overlooked on this slate.
The bigger a slate is, the more I'm drawn to low-salary center-backs who offer solid floors -- because I want to spend salary on the good attackers.
On this slate, Eric Dier ($8) and Ben Davies ($9) fit that bill. Spurs figure to absorb a lot of pressure at Anfield. Dier got 16.7 FanDuel points -- all from defensive actions -- at Brentford two matches ago. He could push for that kind of output again, making him a superb value choice.
Wolves' center-backs Conor Coady ($8) and Willy Boly ($8) are the same kind of plays as said Spurs' duo. There's almost no upside barring a goal on a set-piece, but Boly and Coady possess nice floors in a match at Stamford Bridge against the Blues.
Lucas Digne ($11) is a modest-salared full-back who offers attacking juice. Digne a surprise inclusion to Villa's lineup last weekend after it seemed like he might be done for the year. He proceeded to post 20.5 FanDuel points, the most for any defender on last Saturday's main slate. Digne is a full-back who is typically salaried up with the elites at the position, and in a match at Burnley, he'll have chances to get forward.
Added time -- Christian Kabasale ($7) might be the lowest-salaried starting defender. Watford's back-line is active in any matchup, so he could get close to double-digit FanDuel points at Palace. ... Sticking with the value theme, Tariq Lamptey ($7) is worth a look if he gets into Brighton's lineup. ... If you want attacking upside, Chelsea's Marcos Alonso ($15) and Reece James ($14) are good options, as always, and Liverpool's Trent Alexander-Arnold ($15) is averaging 22.7 FanDuel points per game for the campaign.
Goalie draft percentages might be really spread out on Saturday because there aren't any true smash spots.
On paper, Edouard Mendy ($14) is in a good situation at home versus Wolves. But Chelsea have been extremely difficult to trust in recent weeks, and their typically excellent defense has kept only one clean sheet in their last four matches.
Alisson ($13) is probably my favorite play, although I say that without much conviction. The matchup with Spurs isn't a cakewalk, but I think the Reds are just the much better side. Liverpool have conceded fewer than 1.0 xG in five straight matches in all competitions, and the Reds have allowed just 22 goals in 34 matches this league campaign.
If there is a chalk keeper, Vicente Guaita ($12) might be it. The matchup is certainly there as he's home to Watford, a side that has been blanked in 8 of their last 15 matches. Guaita makes a lot of sense; I just hesitate a bit if it seems like he's going to be popular.
David Raya ($12) checks a few boxes, too. Brentford aren't 100% out of the woods yet in terms of relegation, so they'll be up for the home matchup with Southampton. The Saints have scored more than one goal just one time across their last 10 matches in all competitions. The Bees have kept clean sheets versus West Ham and Spurs in their past two home matches.
Added time -- I could see either keeper in the Brighton-United match -- Robert Sanchez ($9) or David de Gea ($11) -- panning out, and I could also see each having negative points. United are capable of imploding in any matchup while Brighton have mostly been in solid form of late. I prefer Sanchez of the two. ... Nick Pope ($10) has a clean sheet in two of his last three outings.