FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Helper for 4/30/22
As always, we're covering FanDuel's main slate, and that kicks off at 10 a.m. EST on Saturday.
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As is usually the case when Manchester City are on a slate, they're the team we most need exposure to. Playing against a Leeds side that has -- per FBRef -- conceded the second-most expected goals (xG) in the EPL, City could score a handful, and with Pep Guardiola's bunch in a title race, we don't need to worry about them taking their foot off the gas, even with a crucial Champions League match on deck.
Kevin De Bruyne ($21) has upped his game of late, which is saying something considering the high level at which he almost always operates. KDB has totaled seven goals and five assists across his last 10 games in all competitions. When he's putting the ball in the net at this kind of clip in addition to creating a high amount of chances like usual, De Bruyne offers a floor/ceiling combination that is unrivaled. He's the best DFS asset in the EPL right now.
Anyone else who starts for City is worth a look. My favorite options are Riyad Mahrez ($20), Phil Foden ($18) and Raheem Sterling ($19). There is no doubting the red-hot form of Gabriel Jesus ($18), but after his massive 105 -- yes, 105 -- FanDuel points last weekend in a four-goal outburst, he'll likely be over-rostered.
After City, Villa look like the best of the rest as they are at home versus Norwich. Villa haven't been playing well, but a home matchup with Norwich is the best get-right remedy the EPL can offer. The Canaries have allowed the most goals (69 in 33 matches) and most xG (64.7) in the league. Villa won 2-0 in the reverse fixture and could run rampant at Villa Park.
Ollie Watkins ($17) and Phillipe Coutinho ($20) are high-upside plays on Aston Villa, and you can make a case for Jacob Ramsey ($12) and Emi Buendia ($11) as value targets. At a salary up with Man City's stars, Coutinho might slip through the cracks a bit.
The rest of the slate is full of fairly even matchups -- Brighton at Wolves, Palace at Southampton and Burnley at Watford. Of those three, the game with the best chance to turn into a fun DFS environment is the Palace-Southampton fixture. The Saints have been pretty brutal defensively of late, shipping 23 goals across their last nine outings. Villa got four past them while Newcastle, Watford, Burnley and Brighton all netted two goals apiece in that span -- so it's not like they've been cut open by just the elite sides.
Wilfried Zaha ($18) and Conor Gallagher ($17) are the top plays on Palace, but Michael Olise ($14) has my attention as a low-salary play who fits alongside City stacks. On the Southampton side, James Ward-Prowse ($19) has been stellar this season, and Armando Broja ($14) comes in at a modest salary.
Added time -- Hwang Hee-Chan ($14) has cooled after a quick start to the season, but he created three chances last time out en route to 19.2 FanDuel points. ... Teemu Pukki ($15) could get a goal for Norwich. It's not like Villa's been all that great defensively. ... Wout Weghorst ($16) should start up top for a Burnley side that's in good form and has a nice matchup at Watford.
Leeds' defenders are normally good DFS plays, and that's mostly held true since Marcelo Bielsa was sacked. They'll have rock-solid floors against City. Diego Llorente ($10) and Liam Cooper ($11), the likely center-backs, interest me most. They each have totaled at least 15.0 FanDuel points in three straight and should be extremely busy on Saturday.
Joao Cancelo ($15) offers the most attacking upside among defenders. He's averaging 17.8 FanDuel points per game for the campaign and should be full-go after missing the midweek UCL match this week. He's a great stacking partner for any of City's attackers.
Oleksandr Zinchenko ($9) might get another start for City and is easy to love at this salary.
Villa full-backs Ashley Young ($7) and Matthew Cash ($13) will have chances to get forward against Norwich. The same can be said for Palace's Tyrick Mitchell ($10) in his matchup at Southampton.
Added time -- Southampton's Romain Perraud ($7) is a value option who should be in the lineup for the injured Valentino Livramento. ... Hassane Kamara ($14) has become one of the more consistent producers at defender, scoring at least 14.7 FanDuel points in five consecutive matches, although he probably won't be quite as active against Burnley.
Ederson ($14) is the guy if you want to target a goalie with a good chance to notch a win and clean sheet. He allowed a goal last time out to Watford, which resulted in a 7.5-point day, but he'd kept a clean sheet in four of six matches before that. With Emiliano Martinez ($12) in such a good spot and at a lower salary, Ederson might not be super chalky.
Speaking of Martinez, he checks a lot of boxes. The matchup with Norwich is elite, and he's at home. My only reservations are that Martinez will likely be the most popular goalie on the slate and Villa have just one clean sheet over their last five matches. He's undoubtedly in a great spot, though.
Jose Sa ($11) makes some sense, too. Wolves are home to a Brighton side that create chances but struggle to score goals.
Added time -- Robert Sanchez ($10) is a sneaky-good play. Brighton usually put out a good defense in front of him, and Wolves have been blanked in two straight games. ... Both Ben Foster ($10) and Nick Pope ($9) make sense in the Watford-Burnley fixture. Either team would love a 1-0 win, and these attacks are both in the bottom three for the year in goals scored.