FanDuel Soccer: Champions League DFS Helper for Wednesday 4/6/22
Real Madrid (+290) at Chelsea (+105)
Over 2.5 Goals: +114 | Most Likely to Score: Lukaku (+190)
Bayern Munich (-190) at Villarreal (+490)
Over 2.5 Goals: -170 | Most Likely to Score: Lewandowski (-170)
Well, this is no secret -- Bayern Munich are the squad to load up on. They are -190 to win at Villarreal and are listed at -210 to score at least two goals. No other side is better than +110 to get two-plus goals.
Stacking Bayern will be chalky, but it looks like chalk we need to swallow. Whenever the German giants are in a good spot, it usually leads to Robert Lewandowski ($22; -170) being incredibly popular. This slate will be no different, as Lewa will almost surely be the most popular player, possibly garnering a draft percentage near 80%. He's a slate-best -170 to score, and no other player has goal odds better than +160.
Fading Lewandowski, who will be on penalties, is scary, but whenever a player in a sport as random as soccer can be is going to see a draft percentage that high, I lean toward fading the chalk. Plus, Lewa can be very goal-or-nothing in DFS (31 goals and just 1 assist in the Bundesliga), and Bayern have several other high-upside players we can roster.
That puts me on Leroy Sane ($20; +220), Thomas Muller ($19; +210) and Kingsley Coman ($18; +200), and I'll build around two of them. While they don't have nearly as good of goal odds as Lewandowski does, they are all quality plays who won't be quite as popular as Lewa. Muller has 7 goals and 16 assists in 27 Bundesliga starts. If Serge Gnabry ($17; +160) gets in the lineup, he's a great option, as well.
We can also look to Joshua Kimmich ($15; +850) and Leon Goretzka ($14; +390) as creative forces in Bayern's midfield. Kimmich takes nearly all of the team's corners. Goretzka isn't a lock to start, but he returned last weekend. Both are modest-salaried ways to get exposure to the slate's go-to side.
The Chelsea-Real Madrid match is just +114 to go over 2.5 goals, and Chelsea are a slight +105 home favorite with +110 odds to score at least two goals. These two teams met in last year's semifinals, and Chelsea beat Real Madrid, 2-0, in the match at Stamford Bridge.
Kai Havertz ($17; +210) has the best goal odds among Chelsea's expected starters. Romelu Lukaku ($16; +190) comes in with better goal odds and is awfully appealing at his salary if he starts in the number-nine role. Mason Mount ($18; +290) handles some set-piece and corner work for the Blues. Hakim Ziyech ($15; +290) and Christian Pulisic ($16; +280) are fine plays at easy-to-like salaries.
Karim Benzema ($19; +220) is the standout play for Real Madrid, a side that is -220 to score at least once. He's got 24 goals with 11 assists in La Liga play and takes penalties. Vinicius ($17; +360) is a pivot off Benz. He has 14 goals and 6 assists in 26 La Liga starts.
If Villarreal score -- they are -230 to get at least one goal -- and you roster the goal, it could be big. Gerard Moreno ($15; +230) has the best goal odds for Villarreal, a side that sits third in La Liga in expected goals, per FBRef. Moreno has bagged eight goals with two assists in just 13 domestic league starts. Winger Yeremi Pino ($11; +500) is one of my favorite value options. He has the talent to hurt Bayern on the counter and has been a quality performer for Villarreal this season, notching six goals and four assists in La Liga.
Bayern full-backs Benjamin Pavard ($12) and Lucas Hernandez ($10) aren't that hard to get to, and they should have plenty of chances to bomb forward. Both make for nice stacking pieces alongside Bayern attackers.
Pavard has created at least one chance in each of the last 10 matches in which he's played the full 90 minutes. Hernandez has been credited with five chances created across his past three matches at left-back.
Chelsea's Marcos Alonso ($13) and Reece James ($15) are +700 and +550, respectively, to score a goal. James' +550 number is excellent for a defender.
Villarreal's probable starters at center-back are Pau Torres ($12) and Raul Albiol ($11). They offer solid floors at respectable salaries in a match in which Villarreal will likely spend a lot of time defending.
Manuel Neuer ($13) laps the field in terms of win odds (-190), and Bayern are +166 to keep a clean sheet. On the negative, Bayern have kept a clean sheet just once over their past five matches in all competitions, and they failed to blank RB Salzburg in either leg in the Round of 16. Neuer is still a solid play, though, if you have the salary to get to him.
Edouard Mendy ($11) might wind up as the most popular keeper if the masses aren't scared away by Chelsea shipping four goals at home to Brentford last weekend. Oddsmakers have given Mendy the top clean-sheet odds (+158), and the Blues are +105 to win. At a salary that's $2 less than Neuer's, Mendy checks a lot of boxes.
Despite being underdogs, Thibaut Courtois ($9) and Gerónimo Rulli ($7) have some appeal as salary-saving options. Rulli will get save volume against Bayern, and if he can limit them to just one or two goals, he can post a solid FanDuel output. Courtois should be fairly busy, as well, and it's not crazy to think that Real Madrid could pull the upset. He's a top-class keeper who is capable of shutting out anyone if he's on. Real Madrid are +300 to keep a clean sheet.