Premier League Betting Guide: Thursday 3/10/22
Which Premier League matches offer betting value on Soccer odd this week?
Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see the most updated numbers. You can also check out oddsFire to get a feel for the line movement of each match.
Wolves vs Watford
Wolves to Win (-120)
Wolves are 12-4-11 this season with a +1 goal differential -- good enough for 8th place in the league table. Wolves are also 2-2-0 against the bottom 4 teams in the league this season, including a 2-0 victory away to Watford earlier in the season.
Watford are all the way down in 19th place with a 5-4-18 record and a -23 goal differential. They rank 19th in the league in expected goal difference (xGD), indicating their poor place in the standings is mostly based on merit and not mere chance.
Wolves should be able to beat Watford again without much issue, and they should be expected to win this match.
Norwich vs Chelsea
Chelsea -1 with No Push (-130)
This game projects to be a massive mismatch with third-place Chelsea facing last place Norwich. The Blues are 15-8-3 this season with a +35 goal difference and a +20.5 xGD. They rank third in points, goal difference, and xGD. The Blues have won three straight games by a combined score of 7-0, and they already beat Norwich 7-0 at home earlier this season.
Norwich are the worst team in the league with only 17 points from 27 matches. They are also last in xGD by a wide margin (-28.5) -- 9.6 goals behind 19th ranked Watford. Norwich have also lost their last four games by a combined score of 12-2 with each loss coming by at least two goals.
Norwich have the worst defense in the league (58 goals allowed in 27 matches), and Chelsea are the bronze medal once more in goals scored (53), so Chelsea should have no problem running up the score on this last-place squad.
Southampton vs Newcastle
Newcastle to Win (+280)
Newcastle’s overall stats this season are not very impressive.
They are in 14th place with only 28 points in 26 games, but they have completely turned their season around in the last month or so, going 5-1-0 in their last six matches and going unbeaten in their last eight.
Southampton are having a decent season at 8-11-8, but they are in ninth place and far from an unstoppable powerhouse. The Saints have a -2.3 xGD this season, which also ranks 9th in the league, indicating they are a true mid-table side.
The odds here implied that just 26.3% of the time, Newcastle will catch a favorable bounce or two. That's just far too low between two mid-level clubs.
