FanDuel Soccer: Champions League DFS Helper for Wednesday 3/9/22
As always, we're covering FanDuel's main slate, and that kicks off at 3 p.m. EST on Wednesday. All betting lines come from Soccer odd, and they may change after the article is published.
Sporting (+1800) at Manchester City (-750)
Over 2.5 Goals: -240 | Most Likely to Score: Mahrez (-120)
PSG (+170) at Real Madrid (+145)
Over 2.5 Goals: -170 | Most Likely to Score: Benzema (+125)
Despite not being in Wednesday's headline match, Manchester City are clearly the team we need to load up on for DFS.
City are -750 to win at home against a Sporting side they mauled 5-0 in Portugal in the first leg. City are listed at -150 to score at least three times while none of the other three sides on the slate are better than -110 to score at least two goals. The chalk lineup build will most definitely include multiple City attackers, and you can make a case for going all out and using four City forwards/midfielders. The only hesitation I have is that City could let their foot off the gas in this leg since the job is already done. That could show itself via squad rotation or in a more conservative approach. At the same time, it wouldn't surprise anyone if City posted another 5-0 win.
As is usually the case with Man City, they offer several viable plays. In all, there are 12 City players who are listed at +195 or better to get a goal. Anyone who starts in the forward line is a strong play, and their midfield is plenty viable, as well, including whoever plays in the holding role.
Riyad Mahrez ($17; -120) carries the best goal odds on the team, with his duties on corners and penalties boosting his outlook. I'm going to be super interested in Jack Grealish ($17; +165) if he gets into the lineup. His slow start to life at City may keep the masses away, but he's upped his game of late. Kevin De Bruyne ($20; +170) and Mahrez scored twice apiece last weekend.
The other clash -- Real Madrid hosting PSG -- is pretty evenly matched after a 1-0 PSG first-leg triumph. Real Madrid are slim +145 favorites and are -110 to score at least twice while PSG come in at +100 to score two-plus goals. You can argue for players on either side in a match that could end up being pretty open -- especially if PSG score first and Real Madrid have to chase the tie.
In the first leg, Real Madrid did very little going forward, registering a horrific 0.1 expected goals (xG), per FBRef. Madrid will surely offer more in attack at the Bernabéu, and Karim Benzema ($19; +125) has the match's top goal odds. Benz is by far the best play for Real Madrid. Vinicius ($17; +210) and one of Marco Asensio ($15; +270) or Rodrygo ($16; +270) will start on the wings.
On the PSG side, they generated an impressive 2.6 xG in the first leg but needed a late moment of magic from Kylian Mbappe ($20; +140) to put one into the net. Mbappe -- who appears to be on track to play after an injury scare -- has been outstanding this season, and his pace on the break should give Real Madrid huge issues.
Lionel Messi ($19; +175) is always worth a look. Dropping deeper and deeper as he ages, Messi's goal return hasn't been very good in his first season in Paris, but he's still a remarkable passer and handles a lot of set-piece work, including pens. He's got 10 assists in 15 Ligue 1 starts and totaled seven shot attempts and seven chances created in the first leg. With the Ligue 1 crown in the bag, PSG's season hinges on this match, so Messi could turn it on for a vintage performance.
Neymar ($18; +175) is a quality play, too. He was excellent off the bench in the first leg and possesses a big-time ceiling whenever he plays.
Almost no one is going to play a Sporting attacker, so hitting on a Sporting goal could be huge. The problem, of course, is that they probably won't score. Sporting are -128 to get blanked, and they mustered 0.1 xG at home in the first leg. Nuno Santos ($12; +450) has the best goal odds on the team and has tallied five goals with five assists in 16 domestic league starts.
I'll mostly be trying to save salary at defender, and that's where City comes in handy.
Kyle Walker is suspended, and Joao Cancelo has been ruled out. That likely means we'll see Oleksandr Zinchenko ($11) in the Man City lineup, and he is a standout play if he starts. He is +175 to score, which is an incredible number for a defender, and he's easy to love at the salary.
Sporting center-backs would seemingly have solid floors against City, but that didn't come to fruition in the first leg as none of their three starting center-backs scored more than 5.2 FanDuel points. Still, Goncalo Inacio ($10) is a decent play at a modest salary.
Achraf Hakimi ($9) offers attacking upside for PSG and is expected to be able to suit up. As I mentioned before, Marcelo will likely be forced into action at left-back for Real Madrid, and that should work in Hakimi's favor when the PSG right-back is able to get forward. Hakimi is a respectable +600 to score and works as a stacking partner with one of PSG's front three.
The best win and clean-sheet odds -- by a mile -- belong to Ederson ($14). He's -128 to keep a clean sheet and -750 to win. The negatives are his salary ($3 more than any other expected starter) and a lack of save volume, but he can get 17.0 FanDuel points with a clean-sheet win.
Deciding between Thibaut Courtois ($11) and Gianluigi Donnarumma ($10) in the other bout is a tough call. Neither has good clean-sheet odds (+320 for Courtois and +350 for Donnarumma) or win odds. While Courtois was fantastic in the first leg, I lean toward Donnarumma. The PSG goalie should be fairly busy with Real Madrid needing to score.
There's a ton of risk in using Sporting's Antonio Adan ($6). He could easily put up negative FanDuel points (had -6.5 in the first leg), but if he can keep the damage to two or three goals, he can finish with a serviceable output. The $6 salary really helps.