FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Helper for 11/6/21

As always, we're covering FanDuel's main slate, and that kicks off at 11 a.m. EST on Saturday. All betting lines come from EPL odds, and they may change after the article is published.

Slate Overview

Wolves (+200) at Crystal Palace (+145)
Over 2.5 Goals: +132 | Most Likely to Score: Jimenez (+165)

Burnley (+1100) at Chelsea (-380)
Over 2.5 Goals: -146 | Most Likely to Score: Havertz (+115)

Norwich (+480) at Brentford (-165)
Over 2.5 Goals: +104 | Most Likely to Score: Toney (-105)

Newcastle (+470) at Brighton (-170)
Over 2.5 Goals: -104 | Most Likely to Score: Maupay (+125)

Positional Breakdown

This is a smaller slate with just one elite side in Chelsea, and it's the Blues who are the lone big favorite. They are the obvious side to stack, so let's start with them.

Chelsea are -380 to win at home against Burnley. No other side is better than -170 to win. The Blues are -270 to score at least two goals and a not-too-bad +125 to net three-plus. All of that is very good and should have you excited about getting a piece -- or pieces -- of Chelsea.

The bugaboo is that it's kind of hard to know where we should focus with Timo Werner out and Romelu Lukaku looking doubtful. But oddsmakers are fully aware of the Blues' injury woes and are still backing them big time, so we should, too.

The top goal odds on Chelsea belong to Kai Havertz ($20; +115), but Havertz doesn't have a goal in league play since August 28th. His heading ability should come in handy versus a Clarets side that is likely to sit back in a low block. Christian Pulisic ($16; +145) could make his return to the starting XI and netted a goal in his lone start this year prior to getting hurt. Mason Mount ($19; +220), Callum Hudson-Odoi ($18; +195) and Hakim Ziyech ($17; +200) all need to be on our radar if they start. Of the three, I like Hudson-Odoi the most. He's created four chances with a goal over his past two league outings.

After Chelsea, Brighton are in the next-best spot, sitting at -170 to win at home against Newcastle. If he gets back in the lineup, Neal Maupay ($17; +125) has the match's top goal odds and has a chance to snap out of his rut in a date with a Magpies side that has conceded 23 times in 10 matches. Leandro Trossard ($18; +360) will likely be next to Maupay in a front two, assuming Brighton revert back to their usual formation after switching it up against Liverpool. Trossard's goal odds are ugly for a guy with a salary that high, but that should cause him to see a lower draft percentage than Maupay does.

Brentford are in a dope matchup, too. The Bees are taking on Norwich in a battle of promoted sides. While Norwich won the Championship last year and Brentford needed to navigate the promotion playoffs to get up, it's Brentford who are thriving in the top flight and check in at -165 to win Saturday. They're also -135 to score at least two goals.

Brentford's Ivan Toney ($18; -105) might be the best all-around play on the slate and has the top goal odds. Toney has been a very solid DFS producer despite scoring only two EPL goals thus far as he's averaging 16.4 FanDuel points. Toney -- who will be on penalties -- put up 24.2 FanDuel points without a goal or assist against Leicester two matches ago, and we could get a true ceiling game from him versus Norwich.

With all that said, Toney is sure to be chalk, so you can pivot to Bryan Mbeumo ($14; +185) if you want to be different. Mbeumo should be back in the lineup and starting alongside Toney in a front two, and he's got the same number of goals this year (two) as Toney. The salary is handy, and Mbeumo won't be as popular as Toney is. Mbeumo profiles as a fantastic contrarian play.

Added time -- The Wolves-Palace match has some firepower but is a yucky +132 to go over 2.5 goals. It's hard to outright pass on a game on a four-match slate, though, so Raul Jimenez ($20; +165), Odsonne Edouard ($17; +185) and Wilfried Zaha ($16; +185) need to at least be on your radar. ... I don't mind taking a shot on Teemu Pukki ($16; +240) at Brentford. ... Jorginho ($10; +280) has decent goal odds at a lowly salary due to his role on pens.


With Chelsea's starting attackers in flux, a great place to get a piece of the Blues is via full-backs Ben Chilwell ($15) and Reece James ($13) as they should both get forward a lot against the Clarets, a side that is usually content to concede crosses into the box.

Chilwell and Marcos Alonso ($14) have split time at left-back this campaign, and both have excelled in DFS when they've played. Chilwell is averaging a massive 33.2 FanDuel points per game in four starts and hasn't gone for fewer than 14.9 FanDuel points. Alonso -- who is +420 to score anytime -- is averaging 23.5 FanDuel points per game and is a great play if he gets the nod.

As for James, he's been immense since taking back over at right-back, scoring 33.6 and 62.9 FanDuel points thanks to three goals in that span. The goal-scoring ways won't last, but he also created five chances over those two outings, which is something he can maintain.

On the other side of that match, Ben Mee ($10) and James Tarkowski ($13) should be extremely busy for Burnley. Tarkowski is averaging 16.0 FanDuel points per game and -- oddly enough -- has scored exactly 14.3 in each of his three matches versus big-six sides. Mee's salary is depressed because he's recently been out injured, and he offers a decent floor, too, although it's not as high as Tarkowski's.

Brighton's Marc Cucurella ($9) and Tariq Lamptey ($6) are in a nice spot at home against Newcastle. Budgeting for Lamptey to start in the late game is a roll of the dice because he hasn't started an EPL match yet this season, but he's listed as a projected starter and could thrive versus the Magpies. Cucurella is a safer bet to start and has created seven chances over Brighton's last two matches that weren't against either Manchester City or Liverpool.

Added time -- Conor Coady ($7) is always a value option from Wolves. There's almost no upside barring a goal from a set piece, but he should be good for 5 to 10 FanDuel points at his low salary. ... Max Aarons ($9) scored at least 17.0 FanDuel points in three of his first four starts this season but has cooled considerably since. The Canaries' right-back has a not-too-shabby matchup with Brentford and is capable of a good output.


Edouard Mendy ($13) is the top play as well as the highest-salaried option. The Blues have -- incredibly -- conceded just three goals through 10 matches, and two of them have been penalties. So, yes, one open-play goal allowed in 10 matches (a deflected goal against Man City nonetheless). Chelsea are -380 to beat Burnley at home and -128 to keep a clean sheet, both of which are slate-best marks by a good distance. Mendy is a priority for me.

There are other viable options, however, if you want to pivot off the likely popular Mendy.

Brentford's Alvaro Fernandez ($12) and Brighton's Robert Sanchez ($12) are quality choices.

Fernandez is stepping in for the injured David Raya, and the Bees are +108 to keep a clean sheet and -165 to win against Norwich. Sanchez is -170 to win and +124 to blank Newcastle. Of the two, I prefer Sanchez, but both are viable. The negative is that they're just $1 less than Mendy, so if you go with either, it's basically solely to avoid the chalk keeper.

Added time -- The Palace-Wolves match is a fine place to hunt for a clean sheet as it's a slate-worst +132 to go over 2.5 goals. Palace's Vicente Guaita ($11) is +180 to keep a clean sheet while Wolves' Jose Sa ($9) is +225. Palace are slight +145 favorites to win. ... Nick Pope ($7) is a bet-on-talent punt. It's terrifying because Chelsea could score a bunch, but if Pope is under siege and makes, say, seven saves while conceding three goals, that's good for 13.5 FanDuel points, a serviceable output at this salary.