DraftKings Soccer: EPL DFS Helper for 10/16/21
The international break is over, and now we’ve got a five-game Saturday slate. Here are the games, with odds via EPL odds:
|Aston Villa (+130)||+220||Wolves (+230)|
|Norwich (+280)||+230||Brighton (+105)|
|Leicester City (+240)||+260||Manchester United (+110)|
|Manchester City (-850)||+850||Burnley (+2100)|
|Southampton (+125)||+250||Leeds (+210)|
Forwards to Target
Phil Foden ($9,700): Phil Foden is now eligible at forward and also is the highest salaried player at the position. The odds make it clear that this is a slate where you’ll want a lot of Man City. Some digging into the peripheral stats of these two clubs might make it an even better spot than at first glance.
Foden and City will face Burnley, who present one of the best matchups for daily fantasy, particularly for DraftKings scoring. Burnley love to sit back and let their opponents have the ball, which the Citizens already do in most matches anyway. City lead the league in possession rate, and Burnley sit 19th in the same metric, according to WhoScored.com. Burnley allow 20 crosses per game after having allowed 21 per contest last season, and with Manchester City averaging 26 per game, Burnley will likely have a tough time slowing them down.
Foden has only started two games for City this season, but with Fernan Torres, Gabriel Jesus, and İlkay Gündoğan all likely to miss this game, there should be a place for him in the starting lineup. That's especially true if you consider his performance last time out against Liverpool, as he had a goal and eight crosses. He also has been taking more set pieces than normal, cutting into Kevin De Bruyne's share of them.
With the way City are playing this season, it's a bit of a fool's errand to try to predict who will score the goals. So just rostering some of them who could potentially contribute to a few goals is a good strategy.
Danny Ings ($6,100): One of the best value plays when comparing salary to goal-scoring odds is Danny Ings. Ings started off the season with goals in his first two matches for Aston Villa. Since then, he's had just two assists in five games. The fixtures have not been kind to Ings over that time period, having played away against Tottenham, Chelsea, and Manchester United. He could get back on track in this match against Wolves. It also helps that Ings has been taking penalties for Villa, which gives him another route to score in this match.
Jadon Sancho ($5,500): Sancho hasn't shown much since joining Manchester United, but this is a bet-on-talent type play for a low salary. He's only two months into his Premier League career after being one of the best players in the Bundesliga for the past three seasons.
Sancho faces a Leicester team that has not been good to start the season, having just eight points in their first seven matches. They are also bottom five in shots allowed and crosses allowed. It's a great buy-low spot on Sancho, as he likely will not be popular on this slate.
Others to Consider: Cristiano Ronaldo ($8,900), Raheem Sterling ($7,500), Neal Maupay ($7,300)
Midfielders to Target
Kevin De Bruyne ($10,200): The season has started out a bit slow for Kevin De Bruyne, but he seems to be on track to the usual KDB that we know. He had a great outing in the game against Liverpool, with a goal and five shots.
We know that we'll want to target Manchester City players on this slate, and even if he hasn't been producing the same kind of floor statistics so far this season, KDB is still the main player to target. He has regained set-piece duty and should have a majority in this game.
With Manchester City likely controlling the play, De Bruyne will likely be able to rack up crosses, shots, and shot assists. Last season, he averaged 6.6, 3.6, and 3.6 per 90 minutes in those respective categories. That's over 11 points before any goals or assists even factor in, making De Bruyne the highest floor player on the slate.
Stuart Dallas ($5,700): Dallas has shifted from being a defender to a midfield role for Leeds United. Leeds have struggled this season, with just one win in seven matches. However, they are one of the best teams to use in fantasy, as they have a possession rate of 59% and also have the seventh-most crosses per game in the league.
Raphinha has been the main fantasy target for Leeds, but he seems unlikely to play, as he just played in Brazil for their national team on Thursday. Dallas had been taking some set pieces with Raphinha in the lineup and could get even more with the Brazilian out. This would make Dallas a standout value at midfield this week.
João Moutinho ($4,900): Old reliable João Moutinho is certainly in play for this slate. He's been Wolves' main set-piece taker once again this season. Wolves have been able to create more chances than their results have indicated, as they average the seventh-most shots in the league per game. This would help Moutinho get shot assists, but he also has the chance to create more corners. When Moutinho is under $5,000, he always makes for a good play with a high floor.
Others to Consider: Jack Grealish ($9,100), Mohamed Elyounoussi ($6,700), John McGinn ($5,300)
Defenders to Target
Luke Shaw ($5,500): It's not a vintage week to use a defender with a high salary. Luke Shaw looks like the best option if you have the salary. He has usurped Bruno Fernandes as the main corner kick taker for Manchester United. Shaw has at least nine DraftKings points in his last five league matches besides one where he went off due to injury. He has games with 11 and 16 crosses, something that most defenders on this slate are not capable of under normal circumstances. A $5,500 salary for a full back with set pieces who plays on one of the better teams on the slate is a good value, making Shaw one of the best plays at defender.
Matt Targett ($4,600): Targett is one of the better attacking defenders available on this slate. He's had eight crosses in two of his last three games and has 31 crosses overall. Only Shaw has more crosses among defenders on this slate. Targett has been deployed as more of a left midfielder instead of a defender, allowing him to play higher up the pitch and get crosses into the box. He stands out at just $4,600 on a slate where you may need to save at the position.
Marçal ($4,100): Marçal is a similar play to Targett, as he's a left midfielder listed as a defender. He even has 31 crosses, just like Targett. He comes in for a $500 discount from Targett because he hasn't produced any ceiling games of late, but he offers a similar floor. Marçal is one of the lowest-salaried defenders who is a viable option this week.
Others to Consider: João Cancelo ($5,700), Joël Veltman ($4,700), Valentino Livramento ($4,500)
Goalkeepers to Target
Zack Steffen ($5,800): With Ederson returning from Brazil late in the week, we get a chance to play an American keeper for Manchester City. We also get a $100 discount off of Ederson. The matchup is fantastic with Burnley only scoring five goals so far this season. Man City have only allowed six shots per game, so the risk in them conceding a lot of goals is so low. City's clean sheet odds are -140, so playing Steffen and getting at least 10 points makes sense if you have the salary.
Tim Krul ($4,300): If you are looking to save at keeper, Tim Krul is a good option. Despite not having a win this season, he has been decent this season. He has at least five saves in three of his last four matches. We know that Brighton have struggles scoring goals but often get a lot of shots. This is often the recipe for a keeper to have an outlier performance. If Norwich happen to win or keep a clean sheet in a draw, Krul could be a slate winner at keeper.
Nicholas Vazquez is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Nicholas Vazquez also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username hbyanksman. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.