Premier League Betting Guide for Matchweek 6
Which Premier League matches offer betting value on FanDuel Sportsbook this week?
Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see the most updated numbers. You can also check out oddsFire to get a feel for what the betting public is doing for each match.
Everton vs. Norwich
Everton to win -170
Norwich are off to an abysmal start this season, as they are 0W-0D-5L with a -12 goal differential and a -6.3 expected goals differential (xGD), placing them last in the league in each category. Norwich have lost games to Arsenal, Watford, and Leicester, who are all off to slow starts this season and have a combined 3-0-9 record against teams outside of Norwich.
Everton are 3-1-1 this season with a +3 goal difference and a +2.3 xGD after 5 games. Everton finished last season 17-8-13, and they went 4-0-2 against the three relegated teams, so they had good success against the bottom teams in the league last year.
Everton should expect to win this game, especially at home, and even at -170, this is a good betting opportunity.
Arsenal vs. Tottenham
Tottenham to win +210
Arsenal have gotten off to a slow start again this season at 2-0-3. The Gunners have won their last two games, but they have faced last place Norwich and 19th place Burnley, yet they still only managed to win each game 1-0. Even last week against Burnley, the Gunners were outshot 18-13, so it is not as if they are playing great at the moment. Rather, they are squeaking out wins against very weak competition.
Tottenham have their own issues, as they lost each of their last two games 3-0, but they did win their first three matches, including a 1-0 victory over Manchester City to start the season. Overall, Spurs are still ahead of Arsenal on xGD, goal difference, and points this season despite their recent slide, so getting them to win at more than 2-1 is a potential steal.
Crystal Palace vs. Brighton
Brighton to win +155
Brighton are coming off a bizarre season where they finished in 16th place despite having a +13.9 xGD, which was the 5th best in the league. Crystal Palace finished in 14th last season, but had a -25.0 xGD, ranking them 18th in the category.
While xGD is not a tell-all stat, this massive disparity shows that Crystal Palace were likely much luckier than Brighton last season. This year, Brighton has found much better luck, going 4-0-1 to start the year despite a -0.5 xGD. Palace are 1-2-2 with a -1.0 xGD, and they look on track to be a lower half EPL team again this season.
Brighton have proven they can win against mediocre opponents early this season, and they should have a good chance to continue that trend with another win over Palace on Wednesday.