FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Helper for Saturday 8/14/21

As always, we're covering FanDuel's main slate, and that kicks off at 10 a.m. EST on Saturday. All betting lines come from EPL odds, and they may change after the article is published.

Slate Overview

Positional Breakdown

Forwards/Midfielders

It's been a long time (since COVID halted the 2019-20 campaign), but we're back to the usual EPL schedule, which gives us more 10 a.m. EST kickoffs and larger slates. I think it's a lot more fun for DFS to be able to have most of the games play out at once, and there's no doubt that the larger slates have an impact on how we should build lineups. In my eyes, the biggest change is that it'll somewhat lower the draft percentages on the most popular plays, and it makes stacking less appealing than it is on smaller slates, though it's still a viable strategy in the right situations -- something I did a study on a little while back.

This slate revolves around the two big favorites -- Chelsea and Liverpool. You're going to want a piece -- or pieces -- of both. The Blues are -380 favorites at home versus Crystal Palace, and Liverpool are -340 to win at Norwich. Both are plenty stackable.

I'm sure no EPL side is more ready to turn the page on 2020-21 than Liverpool are. Even though the Reds ultimately got third, they struggled in attack for most of the second half of the campaign and just seemed off for much of the year. A season-opening match with promoted Norwich gives Liverpool a chance to get off on the right foot, and Jurgen Klopp's side is a slate-best -105 to score at least three goals.

Mohamed Salah ($23; -190 anytime goal odds) has the Reds' top goal odds and will likely handle penalties. Salah figures to be the slate's most popular player. Sadio Mane ($20; +100) will likely start while one of Roberto Firmino ($18; +140) or Diogo Jota ($17; +135) round out the Reds' front three. Jota was an elite producer when healthy last season, generating a team-high 0.73 non-penalty goals per 90 minutes across his 19 appearances (12 starts). He's my favorite play of the slate if he starts. Thiago ($10; +600) is unlikely to make the net bulge but should be on the ball plenty and rack up chances created.

With Chelsea, they're absolutely spoiled for attacking options -- even with new signing Romelu Lukaku not playing in this one -- and check in with the slate's second-best odds (+135) to score three-plus goals. The Palace-Chelsea match, however, is only -130 to go over 2.5 goals, so that puts Chelsea a tick below Liverpool for me, although this is still a smash spot for the Blues.

The tricky thing with Chelsea is sifting through all of their quality players and finding a way to land on the right ones. Despite their stature as lopsided favorites, the Blues have no one with better than +100 goal odds, and that +100 number belongs to Tammy Abraham ($14; +100), who is unlikely to start and may not be on the team by the time this match kicks off. Among likely starters, Timo Werner ($21; +145) has the top goal odds. Werner wasn't at his best last season, but he was the side's leader or co-leader in both goals (12) and assists (12) across all competitions.

Mason Mount ($18; +320) and Kai Havertz ($16; +175) are listed as projected starters. Havertz came on toward the end of last year and carries at a modest salary. His DFS outlook is better if he's playing centrally. Mount does most of his DFS damage via chances created, something aided by his role on corners. We'll have to see if he keeps that gig this season as Chelsea's full-backs pilfered some corners as last campaign progressed.

We shouldn't sleep on Leicester, who are -145 to win at home against Wolves. I won't stack the Foxes, but they're worth getting exposure to. Jamie Vardy ($19; -105) has sublime goal odds and may get lost in the shuffle a bit among the high-salary stars from Liverpool and Chelsea. James Maddison ($15; +220) will be busy on set pieces, per usual.

Everton are the only other side that has implied win odds better than 50% as the Toffees are -110 to beat Southampton. Dominic Calvert-Lewin ($19; +185) has team-best goal odds for Everton. Either Richarlison ($18; +190) or Moise Kean ($14; +185) will likely start alongside DCL. Richarlison had a busy summer with Brazil but is reportedly an option for Saturday. James Rodriguez ($15; +290) should be on our radar, as well. Hitting on an Everton goal could be big for GPPs as they'll probably be the least popular favorite.

Added time -- Aston Villa are +120 to win at promoted Watford. New signing Danny Ings ($18; +100) profiles as a fun leverage play. The goal odds are there, and he won't be too popular. ... Brighton-Burnley isn't going to attract much attention, but Chris Wood ($17; +185) and Neal Maupay ($16; +200) make some sense if you want to go off the beaten path. ... James Ward-Prowse ($16; +420) will be a focal point for Southampton in midfield and typically handles a lot of set pieces.

Defenders

We have some high-upside full-backs available to us. Trent Alexander-Arnold ($15) leads the way at the position in terms of salary as well as upside. The Reds should see a lot of the ball at Norwich, and TAA thrives in these kinds of matches as Liverpool rely on him to be a playmaker. His +650 goal odds are tops among defenders, and he could handle more corners than usual with Andy Robertson out. Trent is a great piece for Liverpool stacks.

Whomever Chelsea starts at full-back -- likely Ben Chilwell ($13) and Reece James ($14) -- will offer good ceilings. The Blues' full-backs will have chances to get forward against a Palace team that figures to sit deep. Chilwell had four goals and seven assists across all competitions last season while James finished with a goal and five assists. Both fit well as a part of Chelsea stacks.

Despite all those good choices, given all the attacking talent on the slate, I'm more apt to look to save salary at defender.

Konstantinos Tsimikas ($5) is a sweet value option as he will likely start in place of the injured Robertson. It's fair to question his upside, but Tsimikas will probably get forward some, is only $5 and could get a clean-sheet bonus.

The rest of the lower-salary defenders I'm into are high-floor guys on underdogs -- Ben Gibson ($9), Maximilian Kilman ($6), Conor Coady ($9), Cheikhou Kouyate ($8) and Marc Guehi ($7). Guehi and Kouyate should be bombarded at Stamford Bridge. I'll be heavy on them.

Added time -- Lucas Digne ($13) isn't going to be chalky like the three high-salary full-backs we touched on, and he checks a few boxes. He averaged 15.1 FanDuel points per game last season, and he'll take some free kicks and corners. ... Ricardo Pereira ($14) was a beast prior to his knee injury and is in a decent matchup with Wolves. ... Villa full-backs Matt Targett ($11) and Matty Cash ($14) were quality DFS plays last season and are in a nice spot at Watford.

Goalies

The goalie salaries are pretty spot on. Edouard Mendy ($14) is the highest-salaried keeper, and he's got the best clean sheet (-142) and win (-380) odds. Chelsea were excellent defensively last year once Thomas Tuchel arrived, and there's no reason to think they'll be any different this year. The lone concern with Mendy is he offers very little save volume, but he checks every other box.

Alisson ($13) is +110 to keep a clean sheet and -340 to win, both of which are the second-best clips on the slate. While Liverpool stud center-back Virgil van Dijk starting would boost Alisson's clean-sheet chances, even without VVD and Robertson, this team is capable of blanking Norwich.

With Leicester +112 to record a clean sheet and -145 to win, Kasper Schmeichel ($12) is my favorite point-per-dollar play at keeper. Schmeichel had a great Euros with Denmark, and he's at home against a Wolves side that lost its manager and is expected to be sans Pedro Neto, although Raul Jimenez is back. Wesley Fofana is a big miss for the Foxes, but I still like Schmeichel, who should get more save volume than Mendy and Alisson do.

You can also make a strong case for Jordan Pickford ($11). He's another keeper who had a good summer, playing well for England, and the Toffees are taking on a Saints side that sold Danny Ings, its best attacker. Everton are +150 to keep a clean sheet and -110 to win. I'm not sure I will go here much, but he's a fine play, especially at his salary.

Added time -- Robert Sanchez ($10) is +152 to keep a clean sheet, so he's not a bad shout. Brighton permitted the third-fewest expected goals last year, per FBRef, and they're up against a Clarets attack that produced the fourth-fewest expected goals. ... Emiliano Martinez ($11) continued his rise this summer as he helped Argentina lift a trophy. He's a talented keeper in a good spot as Villa are at Watford, but he's only +178 to keep a clean sheet. Not a bad dart in tourneys, though.