Premier League Betting Guide for Matchweek 30
Which Premier League matches offer betting value on Soccer odd? Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.
Arsenal vs. Liverpool
Liverpool to win +120
Liverpool have had an extremely disappointing season and their overall record of 13W-7D-9L puts them in seventh place and on the outside of the Champions League picture. However, Liverpool still clearly has top talent, led by Mohamed Sarah and Sadio Mane, and their +16.4 expected goal differential is third-highest in the league.
Liverpool faces another underachieving team in Arsenal who are 12-6-11 to start the season. The Gunners are in ninth place in the table with a modest +6.0 expected goal differential and they are clearly not quite on Liverpool’s level. Liverpool beat Arsenal 3-1 in their previous EPL matchup earlier this season.
Liverpool may be having a down year but they are still one of the top teams in Europe and they will provide a difficult challenge for Arsenal. Liverpool should be able to take all three points in this one, and at plus odds, they are a quality bet.
Southampton vs. Burnley
Burnley to win +270
Burnley and Southampton are both having disappointing seasons, as they both sit just above the relegation zone. These teams appear to be extremely even on paper, as they are tied on both points and goal difference after 29 games.
Neither team is in good form, as they have both only won one of their last five games, so there is really not much separating these two sides. Southampton gets an edge in expected goal difference by 6.8 goals, but every other major category is extremely tight.
Given the even nature between the two sides, Burnley to win seems like a good betting opportunity at +270. The betting line should be much more even in this match and getting Burnley at almost 3-1 is a good wager.
Aston Villa vs. Fulham
Aston Villa to win +125
Aston Villa are 12-5-11 to start the season and they appear to be well on track for a top-half finish in the league this year. They are +9 in goal difference and +3.3 in expected goal difference, so they are in the top-half of the league in these key categories as well.
Fulham are having a poor season but they are looking to claw their way out of the relegation zone and they are only two points behind Newcastle for 17th place. Fulham are 3-3-9 against teams in the top half of the league this season, including a 3-0 loss to Villa back in October.
Villa are clearly the superior team in this matchup and Fulham has struggled against better competition this season. Villa should be able to win this game and it is a good play at plus odds.
