FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Helper for 3/13/21
|West Brom at Crystal Palace||Crystal Palace (+120)||+128||Zaha (+155)|
|Burnley at Everton||Everton (-115)||+104||Calvert-Lewin (-105)|
|Manchester City at Fulham||Man City (-320)||-134||Aguero (-125)|
Everyone is going to stack City, and it's easy to see why. Pep Guardiola's bunch offers huge upside at Fulham as City are -320 to win and -215 to go over 1.5 goals, per FanDuel Sportsbook. Fulham have been playing well, but they gave up 3.0 expected goals (xG) to City in the reverse fixture, per FBRef, and City haven't been too shabby themselves of late, netting multiple goals in 18 of their past 22 games across all competitions.
Anyone who starts at forward or midfielder for City needs to be on our radar. With a Champions League game coming up midweek and the EPL crown all but sealed, City could rotate the squad. It wouldn't be surprising to see Sergio Aguero ($16; -125) get a rare start as he works his way back to full fitness. He has the slate's best goal odds and is at a decreased salary but has made just three starts all year. Kevin De Bruyne ($23; +150) will likely garner the slate's highest draft percentage if he starts, and you don't need me to tell you how much of a monster he is in DFS.
In all, City have seven players who are +160 or better to score. I'm not going to list all of them, but you can make a strong case for using anyone who is in whatever starting XI City roll out. The common lineup build on this slate will be to lock in two -- maybe three -- City attackers as building blocks.
Elsewhere, my simulations see more goals in the Burnley-Everton matchup than oddsmakers do, and the difference is how my model views Burnley. FanDuel Sportsbook gives them implied odds of 26.2% to score two-plus goals while my sims hand the Clarets a 35.4% chance to go over 1.5 goals. I have Everton scoring two-plus goals 49.7% of the time, which is basically right in line with their over 1.5 line of +100.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin ($19; -105) and Richarlison ($21; +185) will likely be the most popular non-City players, and with Everton likely to be sans James Rodriquez (out) and Gylfi Sigurdsson (doubtful), DCL and Richarlison are by far the best goal threats for the Toffees.
DCL is tied for the second-best goal odds on the slate. While it's easy to be enamored with his goal-scoring chances, he is a guy I usually fade when he's expected to be chalky because he's extremely reliant on goals for FanDuel points (zero assists on the season) and doesn't take penalties. He hasn't scored a goal in four straight outings and has put up more than 5.2 FanDuel points just once in that span (13.6).
Richarlison has six goals and three assists in EPL play this campaign, and there's a good chance he takes penalties if Sigurdsson is sidelined. I prefer him over DCL. Also, Bernard ($8; +390) could be thrust into a starting role and would be a nice value cog who can free up salary for City's studs.
Burnley's attack has been brutal all season, scoring just 20 times in 28 league games. But Everton are the league's eighth-worst defense by xG allowed, and like I mentioned, my model does fancy Burnley's chances to get a goal more than oddsmakers do. Using a Burnley forward is a way to be unique on a slate where the masses may get all four of their attackers from City and Everton. Chris Wood ($17; +185) and Jay Rodriguez ($16; +250) could start up top for Sean Dyche's crew. They carry the best goal odds on the team. Rodriguez is the only Burnley player to take a pen this season other than Ashley Barnes, who is out.
Matheus Pereira ($15; +330), Wilfried Zaha ($18; +150) and Eberechi Eze ($11; +300) all entice me from the West Brom-Palace matchup. This match is -- on paper -- the worst fantasy clash on this slate, so none of them will be too popular.
Zaha returned from injury for Palace's last outing but was miserable in a half versus Spurs. He does, however, boast match-high goal odds and is capable of lighting up a West Brom side that has allowed seven more goals than any other team. Pereira, who has penalty duties, has been a shining light for the Baggies this year, and Palace have given up the third-most goals in the league. Eze -- and the whole of Palace -- benefits from Zaha's return and carries a lot of set-piece responsibilities.
Added time -- My simulations like Fulham's chances to score more than oddsmakers do, which I'll highlight in the keeper section. Almost no one is going to use a Fulham attacker, so hitting on a goal from the Cottagers would be huge. Josh Maja ($12; +300) is my preferred Fulham dart throw. ... Mbaye Diagne ($15; +250) has the top goal odds among West Brom's probable starters and is a pivot off Pereira.
Lucas Digne ($14) and Joao Cancelo ($15) stand out at the high end of the defender pool.
Cancelo has been immense this year in his full-back/midfield role. He doesn't have an assist since January 26th, but he's due for one as he has generated nine shot-creating actions over his past three matches. His +750 goal odds are a slate-best mark among defenders.
Digne should have plenty of chances to bomb forward versus Burnley. He's a fun stacking piece with DCL or Richarlison. With it looking like James and Sigurdsson will be out, Digne should assume more free kicks and corners, and in open play, the Toffees may rely more on his crossing. Digne has produced nine shot-creating actions over his last three games and has posted at least 18.4 FanDuel points in three of his last four.
I love Patrick van Aanholt ($8) at this salary and in this matchup. Rarely will Palace's full-backs have more opportunities to get forward than they will in a match versus West Brom. Prior to his injury last season, van Aanholt was thriving and was usually salaried near the top of the position. He hasn't captured that form yet this year, failing to create a chance since January 30th, but this is a great spot for him. He's a core play for me.
Fulham's defenders should have to dig in and do a lot of work versus Man City. That makes them high-floor plays. Tosin Adarabioyo ($11) is averaging 15.1 FanDuel points per game for the season and scored 18.2 solely from defensive actions in the reverse fixture. Antonee Robinson ($10) had 14.3 FanDuel points -- all from defensive work -- in the earlier date with City.
Added time -- The salary keeps inching downward for Burnley's James Tarkowski ($11), who is averaging 14.5 FanDuel points this campaign. He's scored between 10.8 and 11.7 FanDuel points in four straight matchweeks. ... Oleksandr Zinchenko ($10) may be the cheapest starter on City, and he's created exactly two chances in four consecutive starts.
Per usual, Ederson ($14) has the top win odds (-320) as well as the best clean-sheet odds (-116), so his position-high salary is warranted. It should be the same old story with him -- he has a good chance to get both goalie bonuses but likely needs to get the 10 FanDuel points for a clean sheet to get to 15-plus points, because he won't have much in the way of save volume. That's where I get a little weary of Ederson on this slate.
City have failed to keep a clean sheet in four straight matches after doing so in 11 of their previous 15 across all comps. And my simulations have Fulham getting shut out just 38.1% of the time. While that is still a slate-high clip, 38.1% comes out to a line of +162, which is quite a ways off from the installed line of -116, which implies odds of 53.7%.
Jordan Pickford ($12) checks a few boxes. Everton are the second-biggest favorite (-115), and they also have the second-best clean-sheet odds (+132). Burnley have been woeful all season going forward, failing to score in half of their last 10 outings.
The West Brom-Palace match is a slate-low +128 to go over 2.5 goals and is a nice place to roll the dice on a clean sheet. Palace are +144 to blank the Baggies, so Vicente Guaita ($10) isn't a bad option. Sam Johnstone ($9) is +245 to keep a clean sheet. If you use an attacker from this game, pairing him with his team's goalie makes sense.
Added time -- Alphonse Areola ($7) has been solid this year for the Cottagers and should be busy. He could have a fine fantasy day if he keeps the damage to a goal or two. ... Nick Pope ($8) is a good keeper but is tough to trust behind a Burnley defense that hasn't been as stout as they were in recent seasons. I'll go here only if I'm fading Everton's attackers.