FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Helper for 12/19/20
|Fixture||Favorite||Over 2.5 Goals||Most Likely
|Manchester City at Southampton||Man City (-220)||-194||Aguero (-135)|
|Arsenal at Everton||Everton (+145)||-118||Calvert-Lewin (+125)|
|Fulham at Newcastle||Newcastle (+160)||+122||Mitrovic (+115)|
Manchester City are the only even somewhat sizable favorite on the slate as they're -220 to win at Southampton. The other two matches should be pretty even affairs.
Even though City clearly aren't clicking right now -- coming off a 1-1 draw at home to West Brom -- and Southampton are in really good form, we should feel good about City's ability to create plenty of chances in this match. Their -250 odds to go over 1.5 goals is a slate-best clip by a mile, per FanDuel Sportsbook. And while I doubt City's recent meh form will temper their popularity all that much, their stars might not hit their usual through-the-roof draft percentages.
It sounds like Sergio Aguero ($20; -135) isn't going to start. If he does, he's got the slate's best goal odds, but if he's on the bench once again, we will likely see Ferran Torres ($17; +160) or Gabriel Jesus ($20; -110) in a number-nine role. The salary is getting up there for Kevin De Bruyne ($24; +140), but he has by far the best floor/ceiling combination on this slate. Raheem Sterling ($21; -110), Riyad Mahrez ($18; +150) and Phil Foden ($14; +180) all have juicy goal odds, as well. I'll absolutely have exposure to City and will stack them in some lineups, but I won't have lineups with three City attackers.
The other two games are tough to get a read on. For the Arsenal-Everton fixture, the Gunners have been in miserable form, but oddsmakers have it being a tight one, listing Everton as a slim +145 favorite. It's a similar story for Fulham-Newcastle as the Magpies are +160 favorites. You can make a case for players from all of these sides, and I'll sprinkle in players from each.
Everton have the best over 1.5 goal odds (+114) of these four sides. Dominic Calvert-Lewin ($21; +125) carries the top goal odds on the Toffees. He's got 11 goals in 13 EPL starts. That's really good. The bad is that DCL is very reliant on goals for fantasy production, and he doesn't take penalties. He's yet to record an assist in league play and has scored more than 2.6 FanDuel points in only one of the four matches in which he didn't net a goal. Richarlison ($19; +190) has decent goal odds and has put up two goals and three assists this season, making him a viable pivot from DCL.
The second-best over 1.5 goal odds belong to Arsenal. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang ($19; +150) has tallied only three goals in 13 EPL starts, but he's got a long track record of putting up quality numbers. He'll also be on penalties and scored a goal midweek against Southampton. There's a chance he slips through the cracks a bit on this slate. If Bukayo Saka ($11; +500) starts again for the Gunners, he's an attractive value pick. Saka was a bright spot midweek and has created at least one chance in five straight matches.
Don't overlook this Fulham-Newcastle match. While it absolutely wind up 0-0, there's some attacking talent on these sides, and the defenses aren't very good. Newcastle just got run ragged in a 5-2 defeat at Leeds on Wednesday and now have a short turnaround for this one. I definitely want pieces from this game.
Fulham's Aleksandar Mitrovic ($13; +115) has the best goal odds in this match and has seen his salary slashed. Taker of two penalties this season, Mitrovic is a smashing play if he starts. The problem is he hasn't started in three straight games and is part of the last match of the slate, so if you've got him in your lineup and he doesn't start, you could be in a bind. But I'm willing to roll the dice on him and pivot to Jonjo Shelvey ($10; +370), Jeff Hendrick ($12; +500) or Ivan Cavaleiro ($14; +280) if Mitrovic is on the bench.
I also really like Newcastle's Callum Wilson ($18; +120) and Fulham's Ademola Lookman ($17; +360) from this game. Wilson has the second-best goal odds in the match and has taken all three of the Magpies' EPL spot kicks this year. With seven goals and three assists, Wilson checks a lot of boxes and is at home against a Fulham defense that has shipped 22 goals in 13 league games.
Lookman, meanwhile, is averaging 18.6 FanDuel points for the campaign, and he's posted at least 18.2 FanDuel points in four of his last five matches. The exception was a goose egg at Manchester City, and I'll give him a pass for that since Fulham were completely outclassed in that match and saw just 31% possession.
Added time -- Danny Ings ($17; +140) has a difficult matchup with City, but the goal odds are there. City, though, have permitted just one goal in their last seven matches across all competitions, and it was an own goal off a freak deflection. ... Joelinton ($16; +260) has 18.9 and 49.1 FanDuel points in two of his past three, and the matchup with Fulham is pretty great.
This is the worst main slate of the season for attack-minded defenders. City's Joao Cancelo ($15) and Benjamin Mendy ($10) are the only full-backs who offer legitimate attacking upside, and Mendy is far from a lock to start. Cancelo is averaging 18.6 FanDuel points per game this season and has produced at least 15.8 points in every start but one. Per FBRef, his clip of 0.18 expected assists per 90 minutes ranks fourth on City among players who have logged at least four starts this season.
Southampton's Jan Vestergaard ($14) has a solid floor. He scored 14.1 FanDuel points at Sheffield United two games ago via defensive actions, and he should be very busy against City.
Newcastle are short-handed at the back and will likely give us some low-salary options, with Matt Ritchie ($6), Emil Krafth ($7) and Jamal Lewis ($8) listed as probable starters. Krafth and Lewis have played at full-back some of late while Ritchie has been a wide midfielder. If Ritchie starts in that role on Saturday, he'd be a stellar play as it would give him a better chance to get in on an assist or goal. His +500 goal odds are really good for a defender.
Added time -- Fulham's Joachim Andersen ($9) has averaged 13.7 FanDuel points per game over his last five while getting every single point from defensive work. That includes a 23.3-point game against Brighton. He should be good for a decent floor at Newcastle.
Ederson ($14) is $3 more than any other keeper. If you go with the Brazilian, what you're paying up for is the significant win odds (-220), which top the slate. But his +144 clean-sheet odds are also a slate-best mark, and as I mentioned earlier, City have kept six clean sheets in their last seven matches. As is usually the case with Ederson, he probably won't have much save volume to fall back on if he does concede.
No other keepers have noteworthy win odds, so it's really wide open after Ederson.
The second-best clean-sheet chances (+144) are with Newcastle's Karl Darlow ($10), and considering his salary, he's very enticing. He did just concede five goals, which may scare away people, but he's a slight favorite and will have some save volume as he's made 17 total saves across his past five matches.
On the flip side of that game, Fulham's Alphonse Areola ($8) has the third-best clean-sheet odds (+210). He's had to make four, five and four saves in his past three outings, and that should keep him from a total dud even if he doesn't get the clean-sheet or win bonus. But neither of those are that far-fetched against Newcastle. If you don't use Wilson or any Newcastle attacker, Areola makes sense as a correlation play.
Added time -- Maybe I should embrace the volatility, but I have a tough time rostering Bernd Leno ($9) or Jordan Pickford ($11) on this slate because I have no idea what to expect from the Arsenal-Everton matchup. If you think Arsenal continue their slide, Pickford can be a GPP swing play. Priced between Darlow and Ederson, he might see a low draft percentage.