FanDuel Soccer: EPL Under-the-Radar Plays for 9/26/20
If you have played daily fantasy sports for a while, you know the importance of being contrarian in large-field tournaments. Recognizing which players are going to be popular and finding others who you think have a similar point projection but will be much less popular can really separate yourself from your opponents.
The same goes for DFS EPL. Even though the large-field tournaments aren't quite as large as they are for other sports, there is still value in identifying quality under-the-radar plays.
This article will discuss FanDuel's main Saturday slate, which starts at 10:00 a.m. EST and features three matches.
|Saturday, September 26th|
|Everton at Crystal Palace|
|Chelsea at West Brom|
|Southampton at Burnley|
Matchweek 3 is another short slate featuring a single big-six side in Chelsea. The Blues are the largest favorite on the slate with an implied win probability of 66.7% on the road against West Brom. Everton (47.6% implied win odds) and Southampton (43.5%) round out the slate as slight home favorites.
Despite their recent two-goal defeat to Liverpool, Chelsea will likely be the most popular side this weekend. The Blues are the only clear-cut favorite, and the salaries for their stars are very reasonable, with only Timo Werner ($22) above $18. But Chelsea's implied win probability is far from ironclad, and they are worth considering fading on this short slate.
Crystal Palace and Everton have both started the season in excellent form, while Burnley and Southampton have managed to find the back of the net but have no results to show for it. There are enough capable options from the remaining sides to fade Chelsea, although doing so is risky with the Blues in an excellent matchup against a West Brom side that has conceded eight goals through two league matches thus far.
With all that in mind, here are two players to consider on this slate -- especially for tournament formats -- who may fly under the radar.
Chris Wood, FWD/MID, Burnley
FanDuel Salary: $15
Burnley's match against Southampton figures to be the fixture that goes overlooked this weekend, with the big-name players of Chelsea and Everton drawing interest to their matches. While these two sides are winless, the potential for a high-scoring match is there. Both sides have struggled defensively to start this campaign, with Burnley conceding four goals to Leicester City in their opener, and Southampton allowing six combined goals to Crystal Palace (one) and Tottenham (five) over their first two. Both sides have also been productive in the final third, with Burnley putting two goals past Leicester City and Southampton doing the same to Tottenham.
Wood may see slightly increased popularity as a midrange value option, but he is more likely to fly under the radar as the lead striker on a road underdog. The presence of James Rodriguez ($16) in his salary range should lower Wood's popularity, and Mason Mount ($16) would likely add to that if the Chelsea midfielder gets the start. Wood likely won't be viewed in the same positive light as those two despite scoring a goal and producing 27.6 FanDuel points in Burnley's first fixture.
With several high-priced forwards likely to be popular, Wood offers similar upside at a decreased salary and less expected popularity. Consider pairing him with Dwight McNeil ($14) and including an attacking option from Southampton, as well.
James Ward-Prowse, FWD/MID, Southampton
FanDuel Salary: $16
Far from an unknown name, JWP's popularity should be decreased this weekend due to the presence of James Rodriguez. At the same salary as Rodriguez, JWP is a solid pivot in large-field tournaments. As noted above, this match between Southampton and Burnley figures to be the least popular of the three fixtures, a feeling that should be enhanced by its position as the last game of the day.
Through two matches, Ward-Prowse has created three chances, drawn three fouls, produced three tackles, and taken five shots (three on goal). He has also sent in 12 crosses and is the primary option on set pieces, adding to his floor. He lacks the goal-scoring upside that Rodriguez has operating as a forward in Everton's 4-3-3 formation, but JWP is a central component to Southampton's attack and is well worth consideration on a short slate.
Danny Ings ($20) makes for a good stacking partner with JWP, and Ings is coming off a 2-goal, 40-FanDuel-point performance against Tottenham. On the other end of the salary range, whoever gets the start alongside Ings between Che Adams ($15) and Shane Long ($13) makes for an interesting option to form a contrarian stack in a game that could see fireworks on both ends.