FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Helper for 9/19/20
|Fulham at Leeds United||Leeds (-165)||-108||Bamford (-110)|
|Crystal Palace at Manchester United||Man United (-330)||-148||Rashford/Martial (-130)|
|West Ham at Arsenal||Arsenal (-195)||-156||Aubameyang (-175)|
We have three sizable favorites on this three-game slate. The obvious place to start is with Manchester United, a side that's a colossal -330 home favorite against Crystal Palace. United were pretty electric toward the end of last campaign, scoring multiple goals in seven of their last eight EPL matches, including three-plus goals in four of those games. They're definitely on the stacking radar.
Bruno Fernandes ($18; +120 anytime goal odds) is my favorite play on the slate. His arrival transformed this United attack, and in the post-break stretch last season, he turned into highest-floor player in EPL DFS outside of Kevin De Bruyne, scoring at least 14.9 FanDuel points in six of his last seven EPL matches, including three games of 40-plus points. Fernandes creates plenty in open play, but he also handles penalties while taking some free kicks and corners -- giving him a gaudy ceiling in addition to the aforementioned floor.
You can pair him with any member of United's likely front three -- Anthony Martial ($22; -130), Marcus Rashford ($21; -130) or Mason Greenwood ($16; +150). Martial and Rashford have the best goal odds for the Red Devils while Greenwood is a great point-per-dollar play. Martial will probably play in a number-nine role while Greenwood and Rashford serve as wingers.
The best goal odds on the slate -- by a healthy margin -- belong to Pierre Emerick-Aubameyang ($22; -175) for Arsenal's home matchup with West Ham. The Hammers had the EPL's second-worst defense last season by FBRef's expected goals allowed metric, and they shipped two goals at home to Newcastle last weekend. Auba, who takes pens, has multi-goal upside.
With that said, I kind of like the idea of pivoting to Alexandre Lacazette ($18; -105). The goal odds are really nice, and he made the net bulge in a season-opening win at Fulham. Auba did, too, of course, but I think Laca -- who should play centrally if he starts -- may go under the radar a bit given how popular Auba and Man United's stars will likely be. And I'm open to an Auba-Laca stack.
Leeds are the other favorite on the slate. It's hard to give up four goals and impress, but Leeds did just that in their season-opening 4-3 loss at Liverpool. While Leeds should be really fun to watch this year, I would tread somewhat lightly on this slate. The narrative about them performing great against the Reds might get the masses on them, and said narrative may be a little overstated. What Leeds did was finish extremely well, but they created just 0.6 expected goals, according to FBRef, so it's not like they picked apart the champs.
But Leeds defeated Fulham 3-0 last year at home in the Championship, so there's merit in getting exposure to Marcelo Bielsa's side. Patrick Bamford ($16; -110) has the best goal odds on Leeds by a wide margin, and he got a goal in the opener. I also like Pablo Hernandez ($13; +220) at his salary. Hernandez played in a number-eight role versus Liverpool and looked like he had the green light to get forward.
Added time -- Aleksandar Mitrovic ($16; +210) could be a GPP swing play. Most people shopping in this area will opt for Greenwood, but Mitrovic is facing a Leeds team that just allowed 3.3 expected goals and 22 shots to Liverpool. Fulham clearly aren't anywhere close to the caliber of Liverpool, but Mitrovic can get at this Leeds backline. He should be on penalties, too.
Personally, I see very little reason to spend up for defenders on this slate. Among the high-salary options, there isn't much in the way of big-time upside. I'll be saving cash by rostering defenders on Palace and West Ham.
Tyrick Mitchell ($6) started at full-back for Palace in their opening game while Angelo Ogbonna ($11) has the lowest salary among West Ham's expected starting defenders. Check the backlines for these two teams once starting lineups come out.
If I was going to fork over money for one high-priced defender, it would be Leeds' Luke Ayling ($13). He had four goals and four assists last season in the Championship, and his +750 goal odds in this one aren't too shabby for the position.
Added time -- Man United full-backs Luke Shaw ($12) and Aaron Wan-Bissaka ($15) should be able to get forward often versus Palace. Consistent end product is the one glaring weakness for AWB, but he had four assists last year and can be paired with any of United's front three.
I'm not 100% sure who will start in goal for Man United -- David de Gea ($14) or Dean Henderson ($6) -- but it will have a big impact on this slate.
De Gea is the most expensive keeper but would be a fine option given United's win odds and the fact they're -116 to keep a clean sheet. If Henderson gets the nod, whew, he'll be a smashing play at his salary. He was solid last year at Sheffield United and would be a difficult fade even with his likely sky-high roster percentage. Either way, with this game being the middle game of the three staggered starts, you'll have the flexibility to rework your lineup if you've budgeted for Henderson and de Gea gets the call.
Bernd Leno ($13) is a nice play, as well. Arsenal have become a much better defensive side under Mikel Arteta, and the Gunners are a respectable +134 to keep a clean sheet against West Ham.
Leeds are +110 to keep a clean sheet, so Illan Meslier ($11) deserves a long look, too. And if we're still unsure Saturday morning who will be Man United's keeper, Meslier -- playing the the slate's first game -- might be overlooked if the masses choose to wait to see if Henderson gets the start.
Added time -- Of the underdogs, Fulham has the best odds of keeping a clean sheet (+420). I probably won't go here, but Marek Rodák ($9) is worth a thought if you're fading Leeds' attackers.