FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Helper for 7/8/20
|Fixture||Favorite||Over 2.5 Goals||Most Likely
|Burnley at West Ham||West Ham (-105)||+110||Haller (+155)|
|Newcastle at Man City||Man City (-900)||-270||Jesus (-210)|
|Wolves at Sheffield United||Wolves (+115)||+178||Jiménez (+160)|
|Liverpool at Brighton||Liverpool (-175)||-128||Salah (-110)|
Almost everyone is going to stack Manchester City, and they should. City are -900 to beat Newcastle, and the most likely scoreline, per FanDuel Sportsbook, is City to win 3-0 (+550). City to win 4-0 is only +850.
I'm not going to go through every good option on Man City because it's all of them. Just know that Kevin De Bruyne ($22; +145 to score anytime) is as close as there is to an unfadeable player in EPL DFS as he's scored at least 19 FanDuel points in eight of his last nine starts, with the lone exception being a respectable 12.3-point day. Lock him in, and hope that you hit on the right City players around him. Gabriel Jesus ($18; -210) and Raheem Sterling ($19; -145) have the best anytime goal odds on the slate.
Liverpool are an interesting proposition on this slate. They're surely going to be popular as -175 favorites at Brighton, but the Reds have been pretty blah since clinching their league title. Is their recent poor form a reason to go lighter on Liverpool than we normally would in this situation, or should we be willing to overlook the lackluster form and load up on the Reds in a spot where maybe they won't see as much ownership as usual? I lean toward the latter.
Mohamed Salah ($21; -110) and Sadio Mane ($21; +110) have the best goal odds on the Reds, and they have to be on our radar, per usual. I really like Roberto Firmino ($15; +185) as a cheaper and possibly under-owned way to get exposure to the champs. While the Brazilian is a better real-life player than DFS asset, he's been unlucky this year going by FBRef's expected goals model. The owner of eight goals and seven assists in EPL play, Firmino has been credited with 12.9 expected goals. He's due for a big game.
West Ham have found some good form at the perfect time as they're distancing themselves from the bottom three. A home match with a depleted Burnley side gives the Hammers a great chance to continue their solid form, and they're -105 to win.
The match is just +110 to go over 2.5 goals, so I'm be looking for just one West Ham attacker if I go here. The in-form target is Michail Antonio ($18; +200), who has been playing in a number-nine role of late. The goal odds aren't that sexy, but he's got two goals and an assist over his last two, totaling seven shots (four on target) in that span. One reason for caution with Antonio is a possible return of Sébastien Haller ($5; +155), which could push Antonio out wide, hurting his fantasy outlook. And if Haller does start, he'd be easy to like at his dirt-cheap price.
Added time -- The Wolves-Sheffield United match looks all sorts of ugly for DFS attackers. It's +178 to go over 2.5 goals, and it's -156 for just one team to score. But on a four-match slate, you have to at least consider someone from this game, and it could be a chance to get Raúl Jiménez ($19; +160) at low-ish ownership. Jiménez has 15 goals and 6 assists in 32 league starts -- including two goals in four matches since the restart -- and will be on penalties. Wolves are slight +115 favorites. ... I will also have Wolves Diogo Jota ($15; +240) and the Blades' Oliver McBurnie ($17; +270) on my radar. Both could be big-time GPP swing plays if they get a goal.
The first thing I'm going to do for this slate is check the starting defenders for Newcastle and likely plug in the cheapest two. Whoever the Magpies start in defense will be busy as they figure to get bombarded by Man City. I'll gladly take the 10 or so points they should offer and build the rest of my lineup from there. These two teams played at Newcastle recently in the FA Cup, and City had 75% possession. There's no reason this one will be different.
If you want to take a different route, you could use City's Benjamin Mendy ($14). The Frenchman has emerged from the break finally looking like the player Man City spent big on a while back. If he starts, he'll basically be playing as a left-midfielder against Newcastle. He makes for a good stacking partner with any of City's attackers.
Trent Alexander-Arnold ($15) and Andrew Robertson ($12) are always worth a look. TAA's set-piece duties give him a huge ceiling, and while he hasn't been in good form lately -- zero chances created last time out -- he can have a blow-up game at any point.
Added time -- Brighton's defenders are enticing for the same reason Newcastle's are, and the Seagulls could offer us a little more value depending on who they start. ... Matt Doherty ($14) should be low-owned, and he's been a baller in DFS this season, averaging 13.5 FanDuel points per game. He had scored at least 13.2 FanDuel points in eight straight prior to a 5.2-point dud last time out. He can be a difference-maker in GPPs if he hits, though the matchup with Sheffield United is a tough one.
Ederson ($13) has by far the best win odds on the slate. Will the masses be willing to pay up for him? I'm not sure. And using him means you can roster just three City defenders/attackers, so there's an opportunity cost here. At the end of the day, though, Ederson is the best keeper option on the slate. He's pretty much a mortal lock for the win bonus, and just one team to score in this match is -166, so the clean-sheet odds are amazing, too.
Alisson ($14) has solid win odds, as well, but his clean-sheet chances aren't nearly as great as Ederson's as both teams to score is -132 in the Brighton-Liverpool fixture. That makes him scary as he's unlikely to see enough save volume to really pop off if he gives up a goal.
On the flip side, Alisson probably won't be very popular given that Ederson is cheaper, and if you buy into Liverpool no longer caring too much about the rest of this season, maybe he will actually see save volume. He was pretty busy at home versus Villa last time out, making four saves in a clean-sheet win.
West Ham's Łukasz Fabiański ($11) should see lots of ownership with the Hammers a slight favorite. He's not easy to trust since we've seen this West Ham team implode on a couple of occasions. But the win odds necessitate that we have Fabiański on our radar, and Burnley haven't scored more than one goal in a game in their past six outings.
Added time -- The Sheffield United-Wolves match is a great place to look for a clean sheet, so Dean Henderson ($9) and Rui Patrício ($12) are both in play. Figuring out which side will get said clean sheet is the tough part. The Blades to win 1-0 is +800. Wolves to win 1-0 is +500. You can make a case for either, and neither guy should be popular, making this a fun spot to go in GPPs.