FanDuel Soccer: Bundesliga Under-the-Radar Plays for Matchday 34
If you have played daily fantasy sports for a while, you know the importance of being contrarian in large-field tournaments. Recognizing which players are going to be drafted by the masses and finding others who you think have a similar point projection but will come at much lower draft percentages can really separate yourself from your opponents.
The same goes for DFS Bundesliga. Even though the large-field tournaments aren't quite as large as they are for other sports, there is still value in identifying quality under-the-radar plays.
This article will discuss FanDuel's main Saturday slate, which starts at 9:30 a.m. EST and features nine matches.
|Saturday, June 27th|
|Bayern Munich at Wolfsburg|
|FC Koln at Werder Bremen|
|Dusseldorf at Union Berlin|
|Hertha Berlin at Mgladbach|
|Hoffenhaim at Borussia Dortmund|
|Mainz at Leverkusen|
|Paderborn at Frankfurt|
|RB Leipzig at Augsburg|
|Schalke 04 at Freiburg|
Matchweek 34 will bring the Bundesliga season to a close, and the final Champions League spots are the only things left to be decided. Paderborn and Werder Bremen will be relegated, and Dusseldorf will take part in the relegation play-off. Bayern Munich are champions once again and will be joined in next season's Champions League by Borussia Dortmund, and two of RB Leipzig, Mgladbach, and Leverkusen.
Leverkusen sits on the outside looking in with 60 points -- 2 points behind Mgladbach and 3 points back of Leipzig. They need a win and help to secure a Champions League spot.
Leverkusen is the largest favorite on the slate, with an implied win probability of 79.59% at home against Mainz. Frankfurt is close behind them with an implied win probability of 76.19% at home against Paderborn, followed by Mgladbach (75.61%) and RB Leipzig (72.97%). The remaining five favorites are slightly less favored and include Werder Bremen (61.54%), Bayern Munich (59.18%), Dortmund (58.33%), Freiburg (54.55%), and Dusseldorf (52.38%).
The increased size of the slate creates a much larger player pool than usual, which should result in flatter draft percentages across the board. Make sure to keep an eye on value plays that emerge as squads with nothing left to play for opt to deviate from their usual lineups.
With all that in mind, here are two players to consider this weekend -- especially for tournament formats -- who may fly under the radar.
Yuya Osako, FWD/MID, Werder Bremen
FanDuel Salary: $16
Frankfurt's strikers will be on a decent amount of rosters this weekend, facing off against a relegated Paderborn side that has conceded 2.6 goals per match over their last six fixtures. Osako and Bremen are in a similar situation facing off against a Koln side that has conceded 2.3 goals per match over the same stretch but should find themselves on fewer rosters. Bremen's implied goal total of 2.11 is the seventh highest on the slate, only slightly behind Dortmund (2.12 goals) and Bayern Munich (2.2 goals).
Osako has been largely disappointing since the Bundesliga resumed, but has turned things around recently with two goals in his last three games. He has 11+ FanDuel points in each of his previous four matches and is averaging 85.8 minutes per game. His strike partner, American Josh Sargent ($15), may see slightly higher draft percentages due to name recognition. Still, Osako has been the far more productive player and is a better bet for large-field tournaments this weekend.
Koln hasn't managed to keep a clean sheet since the Bundesliga resumed, conceding at least one goal in each of their eight matches. While Bremen is in worse form than Frankfurt, their situation this weekend is very similar, and they represent a good pivot to consider for mid-priced attacking options this weekend.
Jean-Philippe Mateta, FWD/MID, Mainz
FanDuel Salary: $12
Mainz is the largest underdog on the slate as the face off against a Leverkusen side that needs a win to have any chance at securing Champions League soccer next season. Leverkusen figure to be one of the most popular sides for rostering this weekend, which should lead to Mainz going overlooked.
While Leverkusen is heavily favored and have the highest implied goal total on the slate at 2.49 goals, their defense has been a weak spot. They have conceded the third-most goals in the Bundesliga over their last six matches, and have only managed to keep one clean sheet since the league resumed. Mainz comes into this one with two wins in a row and three wins in their last four fixtures, including a shock win over Dortmund, and a combined five goals in their last two matches. It is worth targeting forwards on both sides of this clash.
Mateta hasn't been very productive, with just one goal since the league resumed, but he has earned consistent starts as the forward in Mainz's 4-2-3-1 formation. Mateta has the second-best odds to score of anyone on the team, behind only Robin Quaison ($15). His low salary and projected low draft percentage make him a solid value option to include in lineups alongside higher-priced options from more popular sides.