FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Helper for 6/24/20
|Bournemouth at Wolves||Wolves (-180)||+104||Jiménez (-110)|
|Everton at Norwich||Everton (-110)||-126||Calvert-Lewin (+100)|
|Sheffield United at Manchester United||Man United (-200)||+102||Rashford (-130)|
|Aston Villa at Newcastle United||Newcastle (+130)||+110||Gayle (+200)|
|Crystal Palace at Liverpool||Liverpool (-410)||-142||Salah (-140)|
This slate gives us three big favorites -- Liverpool, Wolves and Manchester United. Per a study I did this spring, Liverpool are the only team you should feel great about stacking as the threshold we're looking for is a side with implied win odds of at least 70% (a -233 line).
I'm not going to spend too much time on the Reds. They are the late game, so make sure you leave yourself a little wiggle room in your lineup. You know who their big guns are, and everyone in their starting lineup will be an appealing play. I do want to mention Jordan Henderson ($12; +550 anytime goal odds), Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain ($14; +280) and Gini Wijnaldum ($11; +500) as cheap and likely lower-owned ways to get exposure to the Reds if they're in the starting XI.
Wolves and Man United are the other two sides that are installed as a hefty favorite, though both matches have ugly odds to go over 2.5 goals.
For Wolves, Raúl Jiménez ($19; -110) and João Moutinho ($15; +550) are great options, and both should be popular. I like the idea of pivoting to Diogo Jota ($17; +155), who created two chances and put two shots on goal last weekend. If Jota doesn't start, Pedro Neto ($13; +195) would probably take his place, and he'd be a smashing point-per-dollar option. Adama Traoré ($13; +260) was a one-man wrecking crew in a substitute appearance this past weekend, and if you stack Wolves, Traoré's crossing prowess makes him an ideal stacking partner if he's back in the starting lineup.
With Manchester United, we were all wondering who would be on penalties for them now that they're operating with a full deck of cards. That got answered in their first game back -- *raised hands emoji* -- as Bruno Fernandes ($20; +150) took a spot kick when both Paul Pogba ($16; +220) and Marcus Rashford ($21; -130) were on the pitch. That cements Fernandes as one of the best DFS plays in the EPL as he adds pen duties to his other set-piece work. Oh, and he's lighting it up in open play.
I expect Fernandes and Rashford to be in a lot of lineups, so Anthony Martial ($18; -105) could be a savvy GPP play as a contrarian pivot off those two. Martial started in a number-nine role in United's first game back and nearly scored a goal. The Red Devils get a boost in their matchup with Sheffield United as Blades keeper Dean Henderson -- on loan from Man United -- can't play against his parent club.
Lastly, I want to touch on Everton, who are playing at a Norwich side that was in shambles at the back last weekend versus Southampton and has been a great team to pick on in DFS most of the season. This could be a fantasy-friendly fixture, and it has the second-best odds to go over 2.5 goals (-126). With Man United, Liverpool and Wolves likely to hog ownership, the Toffees may slip through the cracks despite being in a favorable spot. I'll be taking a long look at Richarlison ($18; +120), Dominic Calvert-Lewin ($17; +100) and Gylfi Sigurdsson ($14; +220).
Added time -- Someone from Newcastle could be a GPP difference-maker in the Magpies' home clash with Aston Villa, a side that's allowed the most expected goals in the league, per FBRef. I'm not sure if I can talk myself into a Newcastle attacker with so many other top-notch forwards/midfielders in really sexy spots, but if I do, Allan Saint-Maximin ($14; +340) would probably be the guy I'd land on. ... Teemu Pukki ($16; +130) just flopped at high ownership his last time out and figures to be very low-owned. While Norwich are underdogs, Everton failed to keep a clean sheet against Palace, Watford, Newcastle and West Ham before the break.
Among all players on the slate, Trent Alexander-Arnold ($15) is fifth in points per game. No one else in the top five is cheaper than $20. TAA -- who is +600 to score a goal -- is a DFS loophole, and he should bomb in crosses like usual in a cushy matchup with Palace. The only blemish here is that he'll likely be chalk, but he might be just pretty popular -- rather than crazy popular -- with all of the great high-priced forwards/midfielders on the slate.
Lucas Digne ($12) is in a smash spot against Norwich. He's been credited with at least two chances created in four of his past seven matches, and he's gone for at least 14 FanDuel points five times in that span. The floor is nice, and he can post a ceiling game in this dream matchup.
Crystal Palace, Bournemouth and Sheffield United offer us high-floor plays on defense. All three sides are sizable underdogs, so their back lines will be busy. If any of these teams start a cheap center-back, that defender needs to be on our radar. Sheffield United looks like they'll be a great source of value with John Egan suspended and Jack O'Connell doubtful.
Jonny ($9) should be in store for another solid output for Wolves. He's gone for 14.7, 19.0, 22.3 and 20.6 FanDuel points over his last four. I'm not sure why he's so cheap, and the salary is awfully handy on this slate.
Added time -- Danny Rose ($12) hasn't created much since moving to Newcastle, but that could change against Villa. ... Andrew Robertson ($12) was left out of the squad in Liverpool's first game back. If he's back in the starting XI, he's capable of getting an assist -- he has seven on the year -- versus Palace and will get forward plenty.
The three most expensive goalies are the keepers for the three favorites -- Alisson ($15), David De Gea ($14) and Rui Patricio ($13). You can make a strong case for any of them. I'd lean Alisson just because I'm thinking a lot of people won't have the coin to pay up for him, and he's got a really nice shot at a clean-sheet win.
Jordan Pickford ($11) will probably see a good amount of ownership as a cheap goalie with good win odds. While this Everton squad is capable of a clunker, they're coming off a good defensive display in a clean sheet against Liverpool. If I get the feeling Pickford will be chalk, I'll pass, but he does check some boxes.
Martin Dubravka ($10) isn't for the faint of heart as there's gobs of risk here. There's also a decent ceiling, though. The Magpies are +135 to win, and the second-most likely scoreline (+700) is a 1-0 Newcastle win. But Villa to win 1-0 is +900. Using Dubravka could go really well, or it could be a disaster. If I use him, I'll look to pair him with a Newcastle attacker.
Added time -- Well, while making a case for Dubravka, I kind of also made one for whoever Villa starts in goal. In their first two games back that has been Ørjan Nyland ($7). At +110 to see more than 2.5 goals, this match isn't a bad place to look for a clean sheet. ... If you fade one of Liverpool (don't), Man United or Wolves, you should at least consider using the goalie they're facing as a correlation play. They're all dirt cheap, though the floor is scary low for each.