FanDuel Soccer: 2 Bundesliga Under-the-Radar Plays for Matchday 28 (5/27/20)
If you have played daily fantasy sports for a while, you know the importance of being contrarian in large-field tournaments. Recognizing which players are going to be owned by the masses and finding others who you think have a similar point projection but will come at much lower ownership can really separate yourself from your opponents.
The same goes for DFS Bundesliga. Even though the large-field tournaments aren't quite as large as they are for other sports, there is still value in identifying quality under-the-radar plays.
This article will discuss FanDuel's main Wednesday slate, which starts at 9:30 a.m. EST and features five matches.
|Wednesday, May 27th|
|Hertha Berlin at RB Leipzig|
|Paderborn at Augsburg|
|Mainz at Union Berlin|
|Schalke at Dusseldorf|
|FC Koln at Hoffenheim|
Matchweek 29 is highlighted by RB Leipzig, who is the largest favorite on the slate by a wide margin, with an implied win probability of 76.2% at home against Hertha Berlin. Augsburg is the next closest favorite, with an implied win probability of 52.4%, as they play host to the side currently on the bottom of the table, Paderborn. The remaining three matches are all projected to be tight contests, with less than 0.4 implied goals separating the six teams involved, according to Rotowire.
With Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund in action on Tuesday, and no other top-seven side in action on this slate, ownership will likely focus heavily on Leipzig. Timo Werner ($23) figures to be the highest-owned player on the slate by a wide margin, coming off a 70-FanDuel-point performance against Mainz last Sunday. His odds to score (70.59%) are more than 18 percentage points above the next closest player and more than 26 percentage points above the closest non-Leipzig player.
As is usually the case with tournaments, a projected highly owned forward, especially one largely dependent on goals, is worth considering fading. However, the lack of options in great spots makes doing so on Wednesday a little riskier.
With all that in mind, here are two players to consider this weekend -- especially for tournament formats -- who may fly under the radar.
Patrik Schick, FWD/MID, RB Leipzig
FanDuel Salary: $14
Yussuf Poulsen's inclusion in the starting 11 relegated Schick to a bench role for his last two games, but now that the Poulsen is sidelined for the foreseeable future with an ankle injury, Schick should regain his spot on Wednesday. Since arriving from Roma in September, Schick has put together a decent season, contributing seven goals and two assists in 16 league appearances.
The 24-year-old usually operates as the lead striker in Leipzig's 3-4-2-1 formation or alongside Werner in a 3-1-4-2. Either formation would set him up for success against a Hertha Berlin side that has played well on the road this season but is still conceding an average of 1.54 goals per match away from home. Leipzig, meanwhile, have the third-most home goals in the league this season with 33, an average of 2.54 per match. Schick has also performed better at home, with four of his seven goals and both of his assists coming within the confines of the Red Bull Arena.
While Schick's low salary and position on the largest favorite on the slate will increase his individual ownership, he represents an alternative to Werner for tournaments. Opting for Schick over Werner should create a differentiated lineup. Schick is unlikely to fly under the radar in the traditional sense, but including him and fading Werner, while risky, allows for the creation of a contrarian lineup that maintains exposure to the largest favorite on the slate. It also frees up the salary that allows for the inclusion of additional high-priced options that Werner lineups will likely have to forego.
Sebastian Andersson, FWD/MID, Union Berlin
FanDuel Salary: $16
Andersson has had a quiet return to action since the Bundesliga resumed play, but he has put together productive stretches of performances this season. Prior to the league's suspension in March, Andersson had scored in three consecutive matches, and he opened the league in August by scoring in three of his first four matches. In between those runs, he scored two braces, producing FanDuel point totals of 58.6, and 44.4, with the later performance coming against Mainz in their first meeting this season.
Andersson's underwhelming player after the restart creates an opportunity to roster him at low ownership at home against a Mainz side that has conceded the most away goals in the league this season, an average of 2.6 per match. He has the second-best odds to score of any non-Leipzig player on the slate and fifth-best odds overall. Berlin has struggled in front of goals this season, but that may not matter facing a Mainz side that has kept just one clean sheet on the road all campaign.
Andersson's ownership should be further reduced due to the other options in his salary range. Leipzig's Christopher Nkunku ($16) will likely be the most popular selection in this price range, given his role on free-kicks in a plus matchup, and Dusseldorf's Erik Thommy ($17), coming off a good performance against Koln, should also soak up some ownership. Prior to the break, Andersson would have been in the mix, but his slow start should allow him to fly under the radar on Wednesday.