FanDuel Soccer: Premier League Helper for Matchweek 30
As always, we're covering FanDuel's main slate, and that kicks off at 11 a.m. EST. Lineups will be announced at 10 a.m. EST. All betting lines come from FanDuel Sportsbook, and they may change after the article is published.
|Fixture||Favorite||Over 2.5 Goals||Most Likely to Score|
|Crystal Palace at Bournemouth||Bournemouth (+130)||+118||Wilson (+140)|
|Burnley at Manchester City||Man City (-650)||-240||Agüero (-240)|
|Arsenal at Brighton||Arsenal (+130)||-116||Aubameyang (-120)|
|Sheffield United at Newcastle||Sheffield United (+140)||+156||Mousset (+180)|
|Southampton at Norwich City||Southampton (+155)||-138||Pukki (-135)|
|Chelsea at Aston Villa||Chelsea (-160)||-160||Batshuayi (-110)|
Manchester City are the epicenter of this slate. The Sky Blues are monster -650 home favorites versus Burnley, per FanDuel Sportsbook, and the match is -240 to go over 2.5 goals -- both of which are slate-best marks. Even though City's stars will be chalk, I'd much rather stack two or three players from City than fade them in this spot. The pricing reflects City's expected dominance as three of the four most expensive players come from Pep Guardiola's side.
As long as Kevin De Bruyne ($22) and Sergio Agüero ($23) are starting and deemed fit, they'll be smashing plays. Agüero is a slate-best -240 to score anytime, while KDB is averaging an astounding 27.9 FanDuel points per match. The Belgian has created at least two chances in seven straight matches -- aided by his corner and set-piece duties -- and he's scored at least 10 FanDuel points in all but one EPL match this season. Dude is unreal.
Raheem Sterling ($18) allows you to get exposure to the slate's big favorites while possibly dodging some ownership. Sterling is in poor form, failing to make the net bulge in 12 straight matches across all competitions. The anytime goal odds (-120) are still nice, though, and Sterling is too good -- and too big a part of such a sublime attacking team -- for this goal drought to carry on much longer.
My favorite non-City attacker on this slate is Teemu Pukki ($17). The Norwich-Southampton clash should be pretty open (-138 to go over 2.5 goals) and evenly matched (Saints are +155 to win). Pukki -- who should be on pens -- has the best goal odds (-135) of anyone outside of Agüero and Gabriel Jesus ($23). It's desperation time for the Canaries in their fight to stay up, so if they fall behind, expect them to send bodies forward, which is perfect for fantasy. Southampton conceded three goals to West Ham in their last away fixture.
On the flip side of that game, Danny Ings ($16) is -110 to score anytime and is facing a Norwich defense that's given up 26 goals in 14 home matches. Ings has been in a good spot in each of the last three matches and hasn't done much, so maybe he won't be all that popular despite the friendly matchup.
Callum Wilson ($18) has a lot going for him, as well, as the Cherries are slight favorites (+130) at home versus Palace. Bournemouth are scrapping to avoid the drop, and this is a winnable match for them. Teams in this situation don't always provide good DFS plays since they may opt to take a more conservative approach, especially when they get a lead. But Bournemouth have netted seven goals across their last three home league outings, and while Wilson has been goal-or-nothing in DFS lately, he could get one here.
Added time -- With Chelsea a favorite, Olivier Giroud ($15) -- if he starts -- and Willian ($19) are enticing. I'm probably not touching any attackers from the Sheffield United-Newcastle United matchup, which is an ugly +156 to go over 2.5 goals. The Arsenal-Brighton fixture could see goals (-116 to go over 2.5), so it's not a bad place to look. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang ($22) is -120 to score and shouldn't see too much ownership.
Marcos Alonso ($15) is a top play at defender. We haven't dug into Chelsea yet, but they're the slate's second-biggest favorite (-160 to win at Villa). Aston Villa own the league's worst defense, one that has conceded 56 goals in 28 games. In a relegation fight, Villa won't have any choice but to open up if they get behind, which could leave them vulnerable to Alonso and the Blues' counter attacks. The Spaniard has been in good form, scoring three times and creating six chances over his past three EPL matches.
Man City haven't gotten too much attacking presence from their full-backs this season, but João Cancelo ($11) could blow up against Burnley if he gets the start. City will dominate possession, giving their full-backs chances to get forward, and Cancelo has recorded eight crosses across his last two matches in all competitions. Plus, the clean-sheet odds are good, too, for any of City's defenders. If Cancelo doesn't start, it'll likely be Kyle Walker ($11) in there, but Walker doesn't do nearly as much attacking.
Ben Mee ($12) and James Tarkowski ($13) offer high floors for Burnley in a match in which they'll likely be under siege at the Etihad. The same can be said for Charlie Taylor ($10).
Lastly, Jack Stacey ($9) is a cheap full-back on a favored Bournemouth side. Prior to the Cherries' match at Liverpool a week ago, Stacy had been credited with five chances created and six crosses in his previous two outings. In addition to being able to get forward against Palace, Stacey might notch a clean sheet, as the Eagles have tallied a mere 26 goals in 29 EPL matches.
Added time -- Emerson ($12) and Reece James ($12) have attacking upside if either of them get into the Blues' starting XI. Benjamin Mendy ($14) could be a nice GPP play as an under-the-radar way to get access to City's attack. He's not a lock to start, though.
Ederson ($15) has the best win odds as well as a really good shot at a clean sheet -- you'll just have to pay up to get him. He can get at least 17.0 FanDuel points from a clean-sheet win, but the floor is low if Burnley manage to score since Ederson probably won't have much save volume to fall back on (only the win bonus). With that said, at -650, the implied win odds are 86.7%, and three of the four most likely scorelines involve a City clean sheet.
I'm probably going to be looking for a cheaper option at goalie, and that leads me to Aaron Ramsdale ($10) and Dean Henderson ($11). Henderson is behind a rock-solid Sheffield United defense, one that's allowed just 25 goals in 28 matches. Meanwhile, Newcastle are tied for the fewest goals in the league (25). Ramsdale is at home against a Palace squad that has totaled just 26 goals this season, and he's tied for the third-best win odds (+130) on the slate.
We need to mention Karl Darlow ($8), who will likely get the nod for Newcastle with Martin Dubravka out. Priced at the minimum, Darlow will be opposite Henderson. The Blades have been stellar this season, but it's mostly due to their defense. In attack, they've put in just 30 goals in 28 matches. Defensively, Newcastle have been stout at home, allowing only 12 goals in 14 matches, tied for the fewest in the EPL. This fixture is not a place to look for attackers, but it makes sense to pick a goalie from it.
Added time -- Kepa Arrizabalaga ($9) looks to have won back the number-one role at Chelsea, and he's priced like he's still the backup. While Kepa will be popular, I'm not sure I love him this week as the Blues have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their past six road matches in all competitions.