Premier League Betting Guide for Matchweek 23
Which Premier League matches offer betting value for this week on FanDuel Sportsbook? Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.
Watford vs Tottenham
Watford +1 (no push) -155
Watford are 8 points below Tottenham in the league table but they should expect to have a good chance to at least draw in their matchup on Saturday.
Spurs are a poor away side this season at 2W-4D-5L which is only an 18% win rate. Tottenham got off to a hot start under new manager Jose Mourinho, but they have gone 1-1-3 in their last five matches and are far from a dominant team, especially with Harry Kane’s injury.
On the other side, Watford are actually somewhat decent at home with a 3-4-4 record. Certainly, nothing to write home about but their win/draw rate is still 63.6%, which is better than the implied betting odds of 60.8%.
Tottenham are clearly the better team but Watford should be able to at least draw and they have favorable odds to do so.
Arsenal vs Sheffield United
Sheffield United +1 (no push) -105
Sheffield United is 4 points ahead of Arsenal in the standings and they are 5 goals ahead on goal difference. In addition, they are 2 places ahead of the Gunners in WhoScored.com’s team rankings.
At this stage in the season (22 games out of 38 played) this can no longer be considered a fluke. Yet, despite this, Sheffield United remain underdogs against a team that they have proven to be better than throughout the course of the season.
Arsenal are 2-7-5 in their last 14 league games. This is a long stretch of futility against all levels of competition and there is no reason to believe they will get a win against the 6th place team in the standings. Sheffield United +1 is perhaps the most enticing EPL bet of the weekend.
Burnley vs Leicester
Leicester to win -115
Leicester are miles ahead of Burnley from a talent perspective and this is demonstrated in the 21 point gap between the two sides in the league table. To paint the picture more clearly, Leicester has all but locked up a top 4 spot, while Burnley are battling for relegation.
Home field advantage gives Burnley a chance but even so, Burnley is 5-0-6 at home this season, meaning they lose 54.5% of their home games. Meanwhile, Leicester are 7-1-3 away winning 63.% of their away matches, making them the 3rd best away team in the league.
The implied odds for Leicester win based on the -115 moneyline are 53.5%. This gives Leicester bettors a slight edge if we look at the home and away form of both sides.