DraftKings Champions League Daily Fantasy Soccer Helper: Wednesday 12/11/19
Today is the last day of the group stage for this edition of the Champions League. These slates are some of the best in daily fantasy soccer, so let's enjoy it and make some money while we can. Be sure to check on the starting lineups around an hour before kickoff as some of the teams cannot change their group position and therefore could rotate their squad in a meaningless game.
Forwards to Target
Neymar ($10,700): Neymar is projected to start by WhoScored.com despite Paris Saint-Germain already winning their group. If that's the case, he is easily the top play at the forward position. He is the rare combination of a player who scores lots of goals and also takes corner kicks. His floor is also raised due to his ability to draw fouls, having drawn 4.5 per game in Ligue 1 this season. With PSG -750 favorites over Galatasaray, the bookmakers don't seem to think that they will be taking it easy even if they have essentially nothing to play for. Neymar is a -250 favorite to score at anytime, equivalent to about a 71% chance of scoring in this game.
Álvaro Morata ($7,700): Morata is underpriced as a forward on a big home favorite. Atletico Madrid are -600 to beat Lokomotiv Moscow and need a win to make the knockout round. Morata is their leading goal scorer with seven goals in all competitions. Atletico have been well underperforming their expected goal numbers in La Liga this season, scoring about 10 fewer than the metric suggests they should. If they can get things firing in the right direction in this match, Morata could easily benefit. He has tied for the best goal scoring odds on the team with -125, so if they are able to create the same chances they have been, Morata should have the opportunity to score.
Vinícius Júnior ($6,400): With Real Madrid being locked into the second spot in group A, there could be some squad rotation. If that's the case, we could see talented young Brazilian Vinícius Júnior get a chance to play. He is in the projected lineup from WhoScored after making his first appearance in a month on Saturday. Real Madrid are away to Club Brugge in this game, who have allowed nine goals in the five group stage games. If Vinícius Júnior's reputation is to be believed, he could be Real Madrid's next superstar and is worth getting in on early.
Midfielders to Target
Kerem Demirbay ($6,900): Demirbay has proven to be a high floor option in the group stage this season. He has 24 crosses in his three starts, being Bayer Leverkusen's main corner kick taker. Leverkusen are facing a tough opponent in Juventus, but the Italian side has already clinched the top seed in the group. For this reason, Leverkusen are -105 favorites to win. Demirbay also didn't seem to be affected by tough matchups against Atletico Madrid anyway, scoring 12 DraftKings points without a goal or assist. With Leverkusen needing a win to have a chance of advancing, they could push forward a lot and give Demirbay more opportunities to shoot and possibly get on the score sheet himself.
Giorgos Masouras ($5,300): Masouras is underpriced for a set piece taker on a favored team. With Olympiakos as -210 favorites at home against Red Star Belgrade, Masouras has a good chance of paying off his salary. He has scored at least 9.6 DraftKings points in his four starts, and he was not favored in any of those games. He is a good play to get in other high-priced options on the slate.
Luka Modrić ($4,800): Modrić could step into some corner kicks with Toni Kroos set to miss this game. Modric has taken over the set pieces when Kroos has sat in the past, and that makes him a good value if he were to do it again. The 2018 Ballon d'Or winner also can step forward from his midfield role and shoot, with two goals from his ten La Liga appearances this season. He has the floor that we look for when trying to roster a value player, making him worth considering in all formats.
Defenders to Target
Kieran Trippier ($6,200): Trippier has been up to his old tricks in the Champions League this season. He has 26 crosses and 11 shot assists in the three games he's started this season. He gets at least a good share of Atletico Madrid's corner kicks, but will split some with Koke. Trippier has all the attacking prowess we look for in an expensive fullback but comes in at a price discount compared to what we've seen in the past. Atletico Madrid have clean sheet odds of -260, so there's a good chance for Trippier to get the three-point bonus.
Ferland Mendy ($3,800): Another Real Madrid fill-in that we can target is Ferland Mendy. Starting left back Marcelo will miss this game, giving Mendy the go ahead to start. Mendy has been in the dog house since joining Real Madrid and now has his chance to prove himself. In his last appearance in the Champions League, he got five crosses in just 48 minutes on the pitch. Mendy fits the exact profile of a full back we would like to play and comes in a very cheap price.
Goalkeepers to Target
Jan Oblak ($5,800): Oblak is worth rostering given how likely it is that Atletico Madrid win and keep a clean sheet. Paying up for the safety the Oblak offers is the main benefit when deciding to spend at the top of the salary range for a keeper.
Wojciech Szczęsny($4,400): While underdogs on the road, it still shouldn't be a surprise to anyone if Juventus were able to pull out the win. Szczęsny has been a good keeper for Juventus, keeping two clean sheets and winning four matches in a row in the group stage. Juventus are always hard to score against and just lost their first match of the year on Saturday. Playing Szczęsny is a bet on his team being strong, and even if he doesn't get the win, he likely won't blow up and ruin your lineup given how defensively sound they will be.
Nicholas Vazquez is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Nicholas Vazquez also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username hbyanksman. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.