DraftKings Champions League Daily Fantasy Soccer Helper: Tuesday 11/5/19
Matchday 4 in the Champions League always has the reverse fixtures from the last round of games. We'll see the same matchups at the other teams' home stadiums, so we have a better idea of what to expect in these games.
Liverpool won their match at Genk 4-1 and are now hosting them as the biggest favorite at -1300, according to FanDuel Sportsbook. No other team is bigger than a -125 favorite, so Liverpool certainly stand out. How should we attack them and the others on this slate?
Forwards to Target
Mohamed Salah ($10,500): Salah had a goal and an assist in the last game against Genk, and there's no reason to think that isn't repeatable in this game. He is -250 to score at anytime, or about 71% implied odds. Genk have allowed 10 goals in the three games of the group stage so far. They also have underperformed in their domestic league, sitting ninth in Belgium's Jupiler League. With Liverpool being the only overwhelming favorites on the slate, going after their top goal scorer makes sense.
Dreis Mertens ($9,900): Napoli hosts Red Bull Salzburg in what should be an open, high scoring affair. Their last match was a 3-2 win for the Italian side, and all three of Salzburg's games have had both teams score multiple times. Mertens has been priced above his Napoli teammates at the forward position, but it doesn't come for no reason. He leads the club with seven goals in all competitions, including two in the last game against RB Salzburg. He has also been taking corner kicks, giving him 21 crosses in the three games in the Champions League this season. Mertens is a great combination of a player with a floor and ceiling that you can play at forward.
Antonio Candreva ($6,100): Candreva has been an Italian crossing machine for several years. Whether it be from open play or over a dead ball, he will likely be whipping the ball into the box. In a recent league game against Parma, he racked up 20 crosses, per WhoScored.com. His Inter Milan side travel to Germany to take on a banged up Borussia Dortmund team that could be without a few key players. Candreva added a goal in the game these teams played two weeks ago, which is just a bonus to the points he gets when crossing.
Midfielders to Target
All of the players listed at forward are also eligible for the midfield and warrant consideration in both spots.
Hakim Ziyech ($9,300): Ziyech is one of those players who's in play every time he's on a slate. His style of play is so well suited to how you score points on DraftKings, given how he loves to shoot and cross. His floor is ridiculously high -- even in a bad match last time out against Chelsea, he scored 13.6 DK points. So despite going away to Chelsea in this game, he still makes sense as a play. If a safe floor is what you're after, Ziyech is who you can roster for that. He's not just a floor play, though, as someone shooting and crossing as much as him can easily have a breakout game with multiple goals or assists.
Daniel Parejo ($6,800): Valencia are the second biggest favorite on the slate at home to Lille. That's not to say they are huge favorites, though, as the line is just -125. But that's a good enough reason to like Parejo in this spot. He gets two key roles for Valencia that benefit us in fantasy -- corner kicks and penalties. In the last La Liga match, Parejo scored a penalty and took all five of Valencia's corner kicks. It's worth $6,800 to get that combination because the corner kicks will give you some points, and if he converts a penalty, it would give him a good ceiling game that more than pays off that salary.
Defenders to Target
Trent Alexander Arnold ($7,000): Alexander-Arnold is clearly the top play here at defender. Even if Liverpool weren't such big favorites, he would be among the top plays given how many crosses he gets. He leads the Premier League in crosses by 30 over the next closest player. When there is a defender that is as good of a play as Alexander-Arnold is, it's hard not to wonder what his price would be if he was a midfielder. Luckily, he could be considered underpriced at $7,000, and would get a three-point bonus if Liverpool keeps a clean sheet in this match.
Marcos Alonso ($4,700): Alonso's price has drastically changed from where he is normally priced on the Premier League slates to $4,700 in this Champions League game. It's strange that his price would come down after being above $5,000 in every match and putting up a minimum of nine points, and now he is at home as a favorite. We know that Alonso has big fantasy upside from his few years playing in the Premier League. He loves to get involved in the attack and is dangerous on direct free kicks. There probably isn't someone around his price who you can say the same things about. Whatever the reason for the discount, it's an enticing option on the slate.
Goalkeepers to Target
Allison ($5,900): With every other game projected to be pretty tight by the oddsmakers, you can avoid all of that mess and just roster the goalkeeper who is very likely to win and keep a clean sheet. Liverpool have -170 odds to keep Genk off the scoresheet on Tuesday. If you can fit him into your lineup, Allison is a great play at his price just for the safety of the points he is likely to get.
Roman Bürki ($4,500): Bürki is affordable for a goalkeeper who's a home favorite. Inter are not easy opposition, but Dortmund desperately need a win to keep their hopes of advancing to the knockout stage alive. Given his chances of winning, Bürki would be the value play at a goalkeeper position that oftentimes is where you would want to pay down in your lineups.
Nicholas Vazquez is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Nicholas Vazquez also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username hbyanksman. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.