3 FanDuel Premier League Under-the-Radar Plays for Matchweek 11
If you have played daily fantasy sports for a while, you know the importance of being contrarian in large-field tournaments. Recognizing which players are going to be owned by the masses and finding others who you think have a similar point projection but will come at much lower ownership can really separate yourself from your opponents.
The same goes for DFS Premier League. Even though the large-field tournaments aren't quite as large as they are for other sports, there is still value in identifying quality under-the-radar plays.
This article will discuss FanDuel's main Saturday slate, which starts at 11:00 a.m. EST and features seven matches.
|Saturday, November 2nd
|Newcastle at West Ham|
|Wolves at Arsenal|
|Southampton at Manchester City|
|Burnley at Sheffield United|
|Liverpool at Aston Villa|
|Norwich at Brighton|
|Chelsea at Watford|
The 11th main slate of the season features four elite sides in Arsenal, Manchester City, Liverpool, and Chelsea. To no one's surprise, Manchester City is the largest favorite on the slate with an implied win probability of 90.5% at home against Southampton. Behind them is Liverpool, with an implied win probability of 74.4% on the road against Aston Villa, followed by Chelsea, with an implied win probability of 62.3% at Watford. Arsenal rounds out the big-six sides with an implied win probability of 56.5% at home against Wolves.
Of the non-big-six sides, Bright is the largest favorite, with an implied win probability of 58.3% at home against Norwich. West Ham is right behind them, with an implied win probability of 55.6% at home against Newcastle. Sheffield United round out the slate as slight home favorites in a pick'em against Burnley.
With seven games on the slate and four elite sides in action, ownership is unlikely to be highly concentrated on a single team. Even as massive home favorites, Manchester City will likely carry less ownership than they usually would -- and maybe less ownership than they should -- due to the presence of three other big-six sides in decent situations. Arsenal has been struggling, but both Chelsea and Liverpool come into this weekend in good form despite their midweek results in the League Cup.
With that in mind, here are three players to consider this weekend -- especially for tournament formats -- who may fly under the radar.
Sébastien Haller, MID/FWD, West Ham
FanDuel Salary: $18
As is usually the case when there are a plethora of big-six sides on a slate, high-priced options from lesser teams should go overlooked in favor of the stars from those elite sides. At a price of $18, Haller is surrounded by names like Mason Mount ($18), Bernardo Silva ($18), Roberto Firmino ($17), and Willian ($17). Earlier in the season, some of those big-name studs were struggling, and Haller was out producing them. But a dip in production creates a situation where he is likely to go under-owned this weekend.
Haller is averaging 19.7 FanDuel points per match but has produced FanDuel point totals of 9.3 and 7.3 in his last two matches. Before that, he had back-to-back games of 20-plus points, and he is set up for a return to those levels this weekend. At 1.65 implied goals, West Ham has the second-highest implied total of any non-big-six side on the slate, behind only Brighton (1.8 goals). Haller has the third-best odds to score of any player on a non-big-six side and has better odds than numerous players who are likely to carry more ownership than him, such as Mount, Teemu Pukki ($16), and Christian Pulisic ($16).
West Ham is only averaging one goal per match over their last six matches, but that should change this weekend against a Newcastle side that has been terrible on the road. Newcastle has conceded the second most away goals in the league this season, behind only Watford, and they allow an average of 2.4 goals per away match. To be fair to Newcastle, their away schedule has been brutal -- they have faced Tottenham, Leicester City, Chelsea, and Liverpool on the road -- but they also conceded three goals to Norwich City. Newcastle likely isn't as bad as their away record shows, but they are still vulnerable, and West Ham is in a decent spot this weekend.
Lys Mousset, MID/FWD, Sheffield United
FanDuel Salary: $16
Mousset is another player likely to go overlooked because of the names surrounding him in his price range. Coming off his hat-trick, Christian Pulisic is likely to be heavily owned, as is the red-hot Neal Maupay ($16), and the ever-popular Teemu Pukki ($16) will also soak up some ownership in this range.
Mousset's main issue has been his playing time -- he simply hasn't received consistent minutes. He has just one start this season and is averaging 28.3 minutes played per appearance, which makes it even more impressive that he has scored three goals this campaign. He has goals in back-to-back games and may push for his second start of the season this weekend and possibly for a longer run. Mousset is the only player to score a goal for Sheffield in their last four games, and his playing time should start to reflect his production.
Through five games, Burnley has yet to record an away win this season. They've conceded eight goals in those matches despite facing a relatively soft road schedule of Arsenal, Wolves, Brighton, Aston Villa, and Leicester City. They haven't kept a single clean sheet, which bodes well for a Sheffield side that has struggled to score but is coming off a victory over Arsenal. Mousset should be extremely low owned this weekend, and if he starts, he is well worth consideration in large-field tournaments.
Dan Burn, DEF, Brighton
FanDuel Salary: $12
Brighton's attacking options are likely to carry decent ownership in an excellent spot at home against Norwich City, but their defenders should go overlooked. While Brighton's defenders won't have as many defensive opportunities in this match, they should have every chance to get forward against a Norwich side that has conceded 24 goals already this season.
Following Brighton's three-goal performance against Everton, much of the attention will probably be on Brighton's attacking options, but their defenders have been productive, as well. Burn in particular has been excellent, producing double-digit FanDuel points in eight of his 10 matches this season, including all of his last five. He has been involved on both ends of the pitch, with two chances created in two of his last three matches. He has also been more productive at home, with his top performances on the year coming against Tottenham and West Ham while playing at home.
This weekend, Brighton has the same implied goals total (1.8 goals) as Arsenal, and the same implied goals allowed (1.1) as Chelsea. They are in a great spot, but unlike the elite sides, their defenders aren't at the top end of the salary range. Burn provides salary relief, a strong floor, and sneaky upside in a game Brighton should control.