2 FanDuel Premier League Under-the-Radar Plays for Matchweek 10
If you have played daily fantasy sports for a while, you know the importance of being contrarian in large-field tournaments. Recognizing which players are going to be owned by the masses and finding others who you think have a similar point projection but will come at much lower ownership can really separate yourself from your opponents.
The same goes for DFS Premier League. Even though the large-field tournaments aren't quite as large as they are for other sports, there is still value in identifying quality under-the-radar plays.
This article will discuss FanDuel's main Saturday slate, which starts at 10:00 a.m. EST and features four matches.
|Saturday, October 26th
|Everton at Brighton|
|Bournemouth at Watford|
|Sheffield United at West Ham|
|Chelsea at Burnley|
The tenth main slate of the season is a smaller one and features a single big-six side in Chelsea. Chelsea is the largest favorite on the slate with an implied win probability of 58.3% on the road against Burnley. Outside of Chelsea, there are no clear favorites. Watford and West Ham are slight home favorites against Bournemouth and Sheffield United, respectively, and Everton is a road favorite in a pick'em against Brighton.
Chelsea comes into this one in great form. After a slow start to the season, they have now won six in a row across all competitions, including a victory over Ajax in the Champions League on Wednesday. Their impressive form and the lack of other elite options on the slate will likely lead to sky-high ownership levels. However, coming off the emotional high of an impressive mid-week result and traveling on the road to face Burnley has all the making of a trap game for Chelsea.
Chelsea may be the largest favorite on the slate, but their implied goal total of 1.86 goals is only .17 goals above both West Ham and Watford. Completely fading Chelsea in favor of stars from Watford and West Ham is a good way to create a lineup with lower ownership and similar upside.
With that in mind, here are two players to consider this weekend -- especially for tournament formats -- who may fly under the radar.
Dominic Solanke, MID/FWD, Bournemouth
FanDuel Salary: $10
Their recent results might not inspire confidence, but Bournemouth has the seventh-most goals scored in the Premier League with 13 -- tied with Arsenal and 3 more than Manchester United. They are averaging 1.5 goals per away game this season and have secured as many points in four away games this season as they have in five home matches. Their 1.45 implied goals are the fourth-most on the slate and the most of any underdog.
Watford is coming off a surprise draw against Tottenham and is moving, slowly, in the right direction after a miserable start to the season, but they are still a defense to target. Their high implied goal total, combined with their defensive struggles, sets the stage for what could be a back and forth match with opportunity for both sides.
Solanke hasn't made his mark yet this season but has started five matches in a row for Bournemouth. In those matches, he has taken eight shots, put two on goal and created two chances. On a larger slate, Solanke wouldn't be worth a look, but with limited options, his role on a team with the fourth-highest implied goal total is worth consideration for large-field tournaments.
Pascal Gross, MID/FWD, Brighton
FanDuel Salary: $10
Pascal Gross is grossly mispriced on this weekend's slate. Gross has been the engine in the center of Brighton's attack this season and has produced double-digit FanDuel points in five of his seven starts. Over his last three games, he is averaging 19.2 FanDuel points, 2.66 shots, and 3.33 chances created per game while playing the full 90 minutes in all three contests. His role in dead ball situations gives him a high weekly floor of involvement, and playing at home on a short slate, he is simply too cheap for his situation on this slate.
Brighton hasn't been good this season, but their most recent home match was a three-goal victory over a struggling Tottenham side. Everton is the second-worst road team in the Premier League this season, with just one point taken from four matches. They are allowing an average of 1.5 goals per away match after playing a soft schedule of Crystal Palace, Aston Villa, Bournemouth, and Burnley.
At a discounted price on a short slate, Gross should carry decent ownership this weekend, but it is unlikely to be as high as it should be given his high floor and upside in this contest. His price simply doesn't match his current role, especially playing at home in a closely contested match.