Premier League Betting Guide for Matchweek 4
We are only three weeks into this EPL season, and everyone but Liverpool has already dropped points. Hopefully this means we are in store for a balanced title race compared to what we saw last season.
Using FanDuel Sportsbook as the source for lines, let's take a look at some bets you should zero in on this week.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers.
Southampton vs Manchester United
Southampton +1 (no push) -125
Manchester United are clearly the better side in this matchup but not by as large of a margin as one would think. United have struggled mightily in their last two games this season, with a 1-1 draw to Wolves and then a shocking 2-1 defeat at the hands of Crystal Palace.
Even dating back to last season, United were vulnerable away from home with a 9W-3D-7L record (47%) win rate. While this was the fourth best away record in the league last season, it still shows how difficult it is to get three points away from home in this league.
Southampton were not a dominant home team last year by any stretch, but their 5-8-6 record was still good enough for a 68% win/draw rate. Their only home game of this season was a nail-biting 2-1 loss to defending European Champions, Liverpool.
Of course, Manchester United are still a good side, but this is not the same United team that was led by Sir Alex Ferguson several seasons ago. Southampton should be able to muster up at least one point in this matchup.
Leicester vs Bournemouth
Leicester to win -155
Obviously it is a small sample since we are only three games into the season, but Leicester City currently ranks fifth in the EPL in total WhoScored.com rating, while Bournemouth ranks 17th in the same category.
To that end, these teams have one common opponent so far this season (Sheffield United), and Leicester earned a 2-1 victory away from home, while Bournemouth settled for a 1-1 tie at home.
Bournemouth's struggles, especially on the road, date back to last season, where they were a putrid 5-1-13 for just a 32% win/draw rate.
Leicester were 7 points and 17 goals better than Bournemouth last season, and they should be able to get all three points this weekend, especially when we look at Bournemouth's home/away splits from last season.
Manchester City vs Brighton
Under 3.5 Goals +100
Only 10 of Brighton's 38 games went over 3.5 goals last season, which constitutes just 26% of their games. Of course, City are one of the strongest sides in the EPL, so this matchup is a bit unique, but even against the top-four last seasons, only one of Brighton's eight games had over 3.5 goals.
Looking at the reverse, despite Manchester City's complete dominance in the league last season, only three of their eight games against bottom-four teams had over 3.5 goals. Yes, City are scoring a lot, but their opponents are unlikely to score and contribute to the over in such lopsided matchups.
The total of 3.5 is too high here, and despite City's likely dominance, it is unlikely we see more than three goals in this game.