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Win Odds vs. Vegas Lines: Finding World Cup Diamonds in the Rough

The numberFire algorithms have pulled out favorites to win the World Cup, but where are there differences with Vegas?

A month ago, I took a punt on Portugal to win the World Cup at 33/1. I’m no high roller - I don’t even want to mention what a “unit” is in my world. But I made a bet that I typically make - small stakes, long odds, but a decent payout if my horse comes in.

The Portugal pick was made on heart alone, with no real deep diagnosis aside from my personal knowledge of the game. I enjoyed Portugal for the Euro Cup in ’04, lived many years in a portuguese community, and threw down on the based on the possibility of the tournaments best player (Ronaldo) carrying his team to the title.

I should have been more objective with my decision, that's for sure. So in turn, I decided to help all of you out. I took a more in-depth look at the Vegas World Cup odds, and compared them to the numberFire win odds to see where the real value lies in betting on a World Cup winner. Here's what I found.

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