3 FanDuel Premier League Under-the-Radar Plays for Matchweek 28
If you have played daily fantasy sports for a while, you know the importance of being contrarian in large-field tournaments. Recognizing which players are going to be owned by the masses and finding others who you think have a similar point projection but will come at much lower ownership can really separate yourself from your opponents.
The same goes for DFS Premier League. Even though the large-field tournaments aren't quite as large as they are for other sports, there is still value in identifying quality under-the-radar plays.
This article will discuss FanDuel's main Saturday slate, which starts at 10:00 a.m. EST and features six matches.
|Saturday, February 24th|
|West Ham United at Liverpool|
|Southampton at Burnley
|Swansea City at Brighton & Hove Albion|
|Huddersfield Town at West Bromwich Albion|
|Newcastle at Bournemouth|
|Everton at Watford|
Matchweek 28 presents a rare slate with only one elite side in action. That side is Liverpool, and they are the largest favorites on the slate by a wide margin. They are 2.0-goal favorites at home over West Ham, and their implied goal total of 2.75 goals is more than a full goal above the next closest side. While West Ham have been in excellent form, losing only 2 of their previous 11 matches, Liverpool should continue their dominance at home, where they are undefeated in their last 15 matches.
Liverpool's expected success will lead to very high levels of ownership for their attacking trio of Roberto Firmino, Sadio Mane, and Mohamed Salah. Due to the lack of other elite options, even some of the Reds' midfielders who are usually under-owned, such as Emre Can, may carry heavy ownership. With the remaining five matches presenting numerous lower-priced options, it won't be difficult to roster multiple Liverpool players. The most unique way to gain Liverpool exposure might be to opt for only a single piece of their attack, such as Salah, and try to outscore the other pieces with lesser owned players from the other five matches.
Elsewhere, Bournemouth, Brighton, Watford, and West Ham are all 0.5-goal home favorites. Southampton are the slightest of favorites in a pick 'em against Burnley, making them the only road favorites on the slate. All of these matches are projected to be close, which should spread out ownership across the numerous options.
With that in mind, here are three under-the-radar players to consider for Matchweek 28.
FanDuel Salary: $8,000
With their stunning destruction of Chelsea in Matchweek 26 still in the public's mind, Watford should command decent interest this weekend. In the past, interest in Watford would have meant increased ownership for Richarilson, but with the recent arrival of Gerard Deulofeu, Richarlison should go overlooked. His recent form isn't great as he hasn't scored in the Premier League since mid November, but the Brazilian is still tied for the third-highest goal scoring odds on the slate for anyone not on Liverpool.
While Deulofeu will be viewed as a cheaper, flashier alternative to Richarlison, his arrival raises the level of the entire Watford attack and should increase all of their production. Richarlison's recent slump certainly isn't for lack of trying, as he has 11 shots over his last five matches. Earlier in the season, when he was finding the back of the net, he had one of the better stretches by a forward this season, producing more than 30 FanDuel points four times in seven matches.
Everton's away form is heavily influenced by their recent defeats to Arsenal and Tottenham by a combined score of 10-1. That said, they have been miserable on the road all season, allowing 28 goals in 13 matches, the third-most in the Premier League. They also allow opponents the third-most shots per game in the Premier league at 16.6. Watford have been average at home this season, but they have been in good scoring form recently, bagging 11 goals in their last six matches. Everton's road struggles should provide Watford numerous chances in the final third, and Richarlison has the chance to benefit at low ownership.
Jose Izquierdo, Brighton & Hove Albion
FanDuel Salary: $7,500
As was the case when they hosted West Ham earlier this month, Brighton are worth targeting at home. Against West Ham, it was Pascal Gross who produced the most FanDuel points, but Izquierdo also got on the scoresheet in that match. He followed up that outing with another goal against Stoke the following week, which led to 40.75 FanDuel points. Brighton are now undefeated in their last five matches, which may go overlooked due to the increased attention Swansea City's turnaround has been receiving.
While Swansea City have been strong defensively since Carlos Carvalhal's arrival, allowing only six goals in seven matches, Izquierdo's ability, as evidenced by this goal against West Ham, makes him a threat to score against any back line.
On a slate where goals may be limited, Izquierdo has the ability to produce magic, and he certainly isn't scared to try with seven total shots over his last two matches.
Brighton have been a decisively better side at home this season, where they have scored 21 goals in all competitions, compared to only 8 on the road. At home, Izquierdo averages 1.9 shots per match, compared to 1.2 per match on the road. Both Swansea and Brighton come into this clash in good form, but ownership should be higher on Swansea City due to their recent high-profile victories over Liverpool and Arsenal. This weekend, Izquierdo offers upside at a cheap salary and likely low ownership.
Johann Berg Gudmundsson, Burnley
FanDuel Salary: $7,500
Due to his recent production and incredibly low salary of only $7,000, Southampton's James Ward-Prowse should be a popular value option this weekend. This should lower ownership on Burnley as a whole in large-field tournaments, which will likely allow Gudmundsson to fly under the radar. Despite Burnley's recent struggles, Gudmundsson has done well with FanDuel points totals of 28, 40.75, 3.5, and 20.5 in his last four matches.
Both Southampton and Burnley come into this match in poor form, with Burnley winless in their last 11 matches and Southampton having only a single win since November. However, the last time Burnley played at home they produced a 1-1 draw against Manchester City, which should provide some much needed confidence. Southampton have kept only one clean sheet in their past 16 Premier League matches, and that could help a Burnley side that has struggled to score at home recently with just four goals in their last six home matches.
However, that home form looks worse than it is, as their last four home matches have been against Manchester City, Manchester United, Liverpool, and Tottenham. In their last four home matches against non-elite sides, they have four wins, outscoring their opponents by a combined score of 5-0. Burnley could surprise this weekend, and if they do, Gudmundsson stands to benefit the most. He has a monopoly on corners, and with seven chances created over the last two matches, he should be heavily involved in the final third.