FanDuel Premier League Matches to Target in Matchweek 11
A third of the Premier League season is over as teams play their 11th fixture prior to another week off. Before the break, FanDuel will feature a five-game main slate.
|Saturday, November 4th|
|West Brom at Huddersfield|
|Burnley at Southampton|
|Bournemouth at Newcastle United|
|Brighton at Swansea City|
|Liverpool at West Ham|
There is only one match that has an over/under above 2.5 goals. In fact, three of the matches sit at a meager 2.0-goal total. The numbers point not to great defense but to a lack of scoring by many sides on the slate. Six of the teams on the slate have yet to hit double figures in goals scored through 10 matches.
Nailing the right games on a smaller slate is highly important, so let's get to it.
Swansea City vs. Brighton
Among lackluster fixtures, this one may be lowest on the list. However, there is some intrigue -- with total opposites expected to start at striker for these squads and Swansea's poor home record.
Swansea's Tammy Abraham has been involved in 71% of his team's goals, the highest ratio in the league. Abraham is a 20-year-old forward who has scored four goals and won two Man of the Match awards so far this season. He averages under two shots per match, but he has shown a great finishing touch and also gets fouled often.
For Brighton, the danger man -- and one of the top values this week -- is 34-year-old Glenn Murray. Murray has scored three goals in his last two games. Murray is more of a workhorse who does not mind putting in a defensive shift. He averages less than one shot per match, but Murray does lead the league in the last two weeks with five shots on target.
Murray will be joined up top by Pascal Gross, who is a threat on set pieces and has contributed to 70% of his team's goals. Gross has created 11 chances over the last four games. He will cost $8,000 this week, which is one of the higher price tags on this smaller slate.
Less than 2 months ago, Pascal Groß became a part of @OfficialBHAFC's history, netting their first ever @premierleague goal
— Premier League USA (@PLinUSA) October 27, 2017
Brighton have lost four of their last five against Swansea, but the Swans already fell to one of the newly-promoted sides at home. Swansea have lost three of their last four home matches and have not looked comfortable at Liberty Stadium. Brighton won their last away game, and their confidence seems to be growing. Swansea are also dealing with injuries to six possible contributors.
Despite Abraham and Gross being among the top-priced players on the slate, the majority of expected starters in this match are priced at or below $6,500. They should provide a lot of value in a match that has an uncertain feel with teams that both have negative goal differentials.
It is also worth noting that four of the top five points-per-game players in this match are defenders. Since neither team has owned possession on average this season, it could be a back-and-forth fixture, providing value in defensive actions for both squads.
West Ham vs. Liverpool
Liverpool is coming off a Champions League victory in which they were stymied in the first half but showed the patience needed to get the victory with a trio of second-half goals. There may be some tired legs on the field on Saturday to go with the extensive injury list, so it's imperative to check the Reds' starting XI.
Mohamed Salah, one of this week's highest-priced players, scored just after halftime in the UCL match. Emre Can and Daniel Sturridge added the other tallies against Maribor to finish with a 3-0 scoreline that was not indicative of the gritty nature of the match.
🔧 L'excellente construction de Liverpool sur le but d'Emre Can ! #LIVMAR pic.twitter.com/m9wG6VP9mK
— Pierre Caron (@PierreCaron31) November 1, 2017
Georginio Wijnaldum and Philippe Coutinho are the two biggest names who look unlikely to play on Saturday. Jordan Henderson replaced Wijnaldum against Maribor and should start on Saturday. Henderson averages close to 20 FanDuel points per game and will cost $8,000. Joe Gomez and Simon Mignolet were rested in the midweek match and should be in the starting XI on Saturday.
West Ham are dealing with their own injuries and suspensions, many of them on defense. Given Liverpool's average possession is a touch more than 57%, the West Ham defense should be busy and have a chance to pick up plenty of defensive-action points.
There could be some budget options, but there is a caveat. Angelo Ogbonna is $5,000 while Arthur Masuaku is $4,000, but they may be the Hammers' only players listed at defenders on FanDuel who are actually playing in the back line. Declan Rice and Cheikhou Kouyate may be on the team sheet in a back three on Saturday. Rice is not available for selection, and Kouyate is listed as a midfielder on FanDuel.
Liverpool have given up the most goals among the top-seven sides, so it may be worth the risk to field a West Ham striker. It would be wise to wait for the team sheet as the striker role is still up for grabs, although Chicharito and Andre Ayew both scored last week.
Douglas Smith is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Douglas Smith also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username aquemini03. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.