2 FanDuel Premier League Matches to Target in Matchweek 38
This Sunday spells the end of the Premier League season with all 20 teams in action at the same time, providing the most competitive FanDuel slate of the season. Every race except for the European spots is over, which is sure to complicate matters as teams shuffle lineups.
|Sunday, May 21st|
|Bournemouth at Leicester City|
|Tottenham at Hull City|
|West Ham at Burnley|
|Manchester City at Watford|
|Everton at Arsenal|
|Stoke City at Southampton|
|Crystal Palace at Manchester United|
|Middlesbrough at Liverpool|
|West Brom at Swansea|
|Sunderland at Chelsea|
Recent slates have been full of low over/under totals, but this slate is loaded with matches with at least a three-goal over/under. Perhaps that is to be expected as teams tinker with lineups, allow veterans playing time, and go for the remaining European spots. Regardless, it should make for fun viewing if the prediction for goals holds up.
With a 10-game slate, let's see where to point your gaze.
Swansea City vs. West Bromwich Albion
There are two main reasons to target this match. The first is that not many people will look to the Liberty Stadium to fill up their lineups. The second is that there is going to be value across the board as both teams will continue in the Premier League next year and have nothing to play for on the final matchday.
The reverse fixture earlier this season was a 3-1 West Brom victory with Salomon Rondon scoring a hat trick of headers. Rondon scored in the previous encounter with Swansea to give him four goals in the last two matches. If he can recover from a hamstring issue, Rondon will face a defense that has three clean sheets in their last four games and secured safety last week.
GOAL! Manchester City 3 (Jesus 27, De Bruyne 29, Toure 57) Albion 1 (Robson-Kanu 87)#MCIWBA #WBA pic.twitter.com/lNrvLJdSCx
— West Bromwich Albion (@WBA) May 16, 2017
If not, he will be replaced by Hal Robson-Kanu, who scored a goal after coming on against Manchester City. He is just $6,200 on FanDuel this week and joins plenty of other expected West Brom starters at or under $6,200. Three of the four likely starters on defense are below that threshold, including left back Marc Wilson at $4,800. Rondon, Ben Foster, Craig Dawson, and Chris Brunt are the only potential starters above that number.
For the Swans, this match could mark a personal milestone for Gylfi Sigurdsson. He has been their leader all year long and has a chance to be the first Swansea player with double-figure goals and assists in a Premier League season if he can find the back of the net just once. He will likely go for free kicks from further distances and take more chances with Swansea's place in the league secured. As expected, Sigurdsson is the most expensive player in this match at $10,600.
Ki Sung-yueng can provide value on the right side of the midfield at just $5,200. He has double-digit results in four of the last five matches, but was subbed off with 25 minutes to play this past week.
WhoScored is predicting a 3-1 Swansea victory and three of the top five final score odds predictions include both teams scoring. The teams have nothing to lose, so why not leave it all out on the pitch?
Watford vs. Manchester City
Watford do not have much to play for, but they are unbeaten in their last three Premier League season finales, all at Vicarage Road. They have also lost their last five games, so it would be nice to go out on the winning end.
City have a lot to play for sitting in third place with a berth in the Champions League group stages on the line. They also come in with a three-game winning streak that has seen them fire 10 goals behind the opposition keeper, which explains the posted 3.5-goal over/under.
The City lineup should be at full strength as they look to secure their place in the table. Pablo Zabaleta will be moving on from City next year and could get the sentimental start at right back. He is only $5,400 this week.
#ThrowbackThursday to an incredible final ten minutes at Vicarage Road last season! #tbt #mcfc pic.twitter.com/DHhkEiPQoG
— Manchester City (@ManCity) May 18, 2017
Sergio Aguero, Kevin De Bruyne, and the rest of the Manchester City front five should feast on a depleted Watford defense. In Walter Mazzarri's final match at the helm, Watford will have to deal with injuries to Miguel Britos and Christian Kabasele as well as a red card for Sebastian Prodl. Four of the City front five are priced above $9,000, but they should see plenty of the ball.
That does imply value for the Watford defenders that manage to find their way on the field Sunday. Adrian Mariappa has averaged over 19 points per game in his seven appearances. His price has risen to $5,900. Jose Holebas is at $6,200 and has 11 clearances over his last 3 matches.
Odds are that Manchester City wins big, so it makes sense to target their biggest offensive threats. However, there is value as Watford could put 10 men behind the ball with plenty of chances to rack up defensive action points while looking to counter with Stefano Okako.
Given the bigger slate, it should be pointed out that Chelsea, Liverpool, and Tottenham are all in good spots to have offensive outbursts. Chelsea will get their trophy at Stamford Bridge on Sunday, so they will try to put on a good show for the home crowd. Their matchup with Sunderland and Arsenal hosting Everton round out the games with a 3.5-goal over/under.
With not much on the line in many games Sunday, it goes without saying to check the team sheets around 9am ET. Good luck as another Premier League season comes to a close.