Premier League: 4 FanDuel Value Plays for Matchweek 4
With three games out of the way, things are starting to settle down in the Premier League. New signings are getting acclimated to their new teams, and stars are nearing full fitness after a summer of international action.
We already covered some high-priced players who are worth the large investment for Matchweek 4, but let’s shift to some low-cost assets who could deliver with solid production, highlighting one value play at each position.
The Premier League features a 10-match schedule for Matchweek 4, giving us a slew of options.
Andre Gray, Burnley
Price: £7.5 million
Gray has been a DFS landmine in two of Burnley's three matches, but he was a stud in the other, netting a sweet goal and totaling 30.75 FanDuel points in a 2-0 upset of Liverpool.
Gray is averaging 2.0 shots per game, and he was a huge reason Burnley earned promotion into the Premier League for this year. In the Championship last season, Gray scored 23 goals and dished out 8 assists. He's the Clarets' key cog.
Burnley gets a nice home matchup against Hull City, another newly-promoted club. The matchup should give Burnley a chance to go forward more than they have in their first three games. Hull is allowing a league-high 23.3 shots per game, and the odds on bet365.com give Gray the best chance to score of any player in the match.
Gray could definitely put up a clunker if he doesn't score, but the matchup is ripe with upside.
Michail Antonio, West Ham
Price: £9.7 million
Antonio is a bit more expensive than our typical value play, but he's still a bargain as he's priced outside of the 15 most expensive midfielders.
With Dimitri Payet playing in a limited role in West Ham's first three games, Antonio filled the offensive void. He is averaging 24.75 FanDuel points through three matches, scoring a pair of goals. He is averaging 1.7 shots and 24.7 passes per contest.
Payet is expected back for this weekend's clash with Watford. In some ways, that dings Antonio's value a little bit, but in other aspects, it also helps him. With Payet in the side, the Hammers should be much more explosive in attack, and Payet's ability to deliver on-the-money crosses meshes well with Antonio's aerial talent. Both of Antonio's goals this season have been headers.
Watford has soaked up a ton of pressure defensively. The Hornets have possessed the ball just 41.8% of the time, the second-lowest mark in the Premier League. They are also allowing the fourth-most shots per match at 15.7. West Ham should light up the scoreboard as a favorite in a match with an over/under of 2.5, and Antonio has a chance to be a part of any Hammers' offensive explosion.
Curtis Davies, Hull City
Price: £7.6 million
Davies keeps putting up monster performances, but his price is only increasing in small increments. It's a beautiful thing.
We've been on Davies quite often this season, and there's no reason to stop now -- at least until his price starts aligning with his production. Through three matches, the Hull City back-liner is averaging 36.17 FanDuel points, tops for all defenders, and his worst single-game output this year is 32.75 FanDuel points. The dude is ballin' out.
WhoScored.com rates him as the Premier League's top player by a wide margin. It's really a perfect storm of events, similar to what happened with Christian Fuchs of Leicester City last year. Davies is really good, and he's playing for a team that is usually hunkered back in defense, giving him plenty of chances to rack up counting stats. He's definitely doing that, averaging 7.0 interceptions, 11.3 clearances, 3.3 blocks and 38.0 passes per match.
Admittedly, the matchup this week -- on the road against Burnley -- is not as great for Davies. It's decent in terms of Hull's chances to take three points and stay near the top of the table, but Davies, in all likelihood, won't have to do as much as he has in Hull's three other fixtures. Burnley has the lowest possession rate in the league (39.1%) and has attempted the fewest shots per match (6.3).
With that said, the game is at Burnley, and oddsmakers have the match pretty even. Even if the huge ceiling isn't there this week, it's very difficult to pass up on a cheap option who is playing this well.
Brad Guzan, Middlesbrough
Price: £6.1 million
This is a placeholder for whoever Middlesbrough decides to start at goalie. Whether it's Guzan or Victor Valdes (£6.2 million), Boro's goalie is in a good spot for their home clash with Crystal Palace.
Palace is attempting 16 shots per game and keeping the ball a solid amount with a 53.1% possession rate, so Middlesbrough's defense should be busy. Despite being on the front foot fairly often, the Eagles are only scoring one goal per match. Middlesbrough is allowing the seventh-most shots per game (14.3), but they've conceided just twice in three matches. That's the kind of stuff we want with our keepers -- lots of action but only a goal or two.
Guzan has started the past two games with Valdes injured, and he's played well, averaging 15.25 FanDuel points per match. Middlesbrough has taken four points from their last two matches -- a win over Sunderland and a tie with West Brom -- so they may elect to keep Guzan in the starting XI. Guzan kept a clean sheet in the deadlock with West Brom, his first shutout in over 18 Premier League contests.