The Odds of All the Capitals' Playoff Collapses Will Make You Cry for Washington Fans

The Capitals lost another Game 7 after leading a series 3-1. How unlikely is their playoff history?

Look, I'm a Pittsburgh homer, so watching the Washington Capitals lose isn't the most devastating thing in the world to me.

But I'm also a decent human being. And I feel horrible for Capital fans.

After gaining a 3-1 series lead on the Rangers, last night's Game 7 loss can only be described as heartbreaking. It could also be described as normal for the Capitals franchise.

Washington has been to just one final, and they've never hoisted Lord Stanley's Cup. That's not just it though. Losing is one thing. Losing in tremendously sad fashion over and over again is another.

Over the last 30 years, the Capitals have been in the playoffs 23 times. In 10 of these 23 instances, they've been up at least two games on their opponent and lost.

That's not all. After last night's defeat, Washington has now lost five Game 7 matchups after leading a series 3-1.

To do something like this isn't just unlikely -- it's completely improbable. If we were to assume they had a 50/50 shot at every game they played, then when the Caps were up 3-1 in a series, they were sitting at 87.5% odds of winning that series. In turn, there's a 0.003% probability of losing five series like this after having a 3-1 lead in each of them.

In other words, the Capitals had a 99.997% chance of winning at least one of the five series. And they didn't.

For Washington fans' sanity, hopefully the Wizards can pull an anti-Capitals and come back in their series against the Hawks.