NHL Betting Guide: Monday 5/15/23

Game 7 tonight brings all the pressure and a chance to move onto the Western Conference finals. What is the best way to approach tonight's game?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Header links are to numberFire's betting model for each game. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Seattle Kraken at Dallas Stars

Under 5.5 (+104)

Win or go home. It's as simple as that for Game 7 between the Seattle Kraken and Dallas Stars.

While this series has featured plenty of scoring through the first six games, under 5.5 total goals is the spot to find the best value tonight. This is not for the faint of heart as we've seen six or more goals in all six of the games so far, including multiple games with nine goals.

That scoring has partially come due to the offenses overperforming and the defenses -- mainly Dallas' -- underperforming in the playoffs.

To this point in the playoffs, the Stars have scored a total of 45 goals while amassing 41.67 Expected Goals Scored. It's the same story for the Kraken, who have scored 43 Goals from 33.88 Expected Goals Scored. These are two offenses that have gotten every bounce and deflection in their favor so far.

When it comes to the defenses, the Kraken have held the line with 43 goals allowed and 44.57 Expected Goals Allowed. No major differential there. But the story is vastly different for the Stars. In the playoffs, the Stars have allowed 39 goals with only 31.98 Expected Goals Allowed.

These are two offenses that are due for some negative regression on the scoring front, while Dallas is due for some positive regression on defense. Scoring has been the trend to this point in the series, but defense is the name of Game 7 tonight.