NHL Betting Guide: Tuesday 5/9/23
With leans the past couple of days, it'll be nice to get full-unit bets down tonight. Luckily, these spots seem fully worth it.
How are we betting Tuesday's pair of contests?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Header links are to numberFire's betting model for each game. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Carolina Hurricanes at New Jersey Devils
Hurricanes ML (+130)
Sunday's 12-goal bonanza wasn't really a blowout or a shootout on paper. Expected goals (xGF) favored the Devils, 3.95 to 2.90, but that wasn't the lopsided four-goal margin in the box score.
Carolina tried to sneak in a rest day for Frederik Andersen and paid worse than they expected. Pyotr Kochetkov ceded 4 goals on 12 shots and was yanked. Andersen allowed four in relief, but he's been excellent as a starter this postseason. His 3.63 goals saved above expectation (GSAx) trail only Florida's Sergei Bobrovsky.
As a result, I do feel like this is a decent spot to turn back to the Canes. They still lead this series in xGF per 60 (3.82 to 3.01), and Andersen has outplayed both Akira Schmid (-1.50 GSAx) and Vitek Vanecek (-2.05 GSAx) in this series.
Right now, I'm not sure New Jersey has an answer in goal, and a home game in the NHL isn't as impactful as in other sports, so we shouldn't see this continuing trend of the home team posting blowout wins forever.
Dallas Stars at Seattle Kraken
Stars ML (-140)
Stars -1.5 (+168)
Surely, the slithery Kraken can't keep getting away with this, right?
Seattle is getting crushed -- again -- in xGF per 60 minutes this series. Dallas leads 3.59 to 2.35 in that category, and if you'd had told me that before the series, I'd have wondered if the Stars closed it out tonight.
That's because Jake Oettinger was a top-eight goaltender in GSAx (21.65) during the regular season, and Philipp Grubauer (4.94 GSAx) was totally forgettable. However, just like Colorado's Alexandar Georgiev last series against the Krak, Oettinger has tanked at the worst time.
He's posted -4.73 GSAx in this series, which is the worst mark of all second-round goalies. Grubauer (0.43 GSAx) has held serve on his end. That's been the difference. The great benefit of looking at GSAx is knowing exactly how much of the scoring is the goaltender's responsibility versus the defense. Right now, one of the best netminders in the sport isn't doing his part.
I will be flabbergasted if this trend continues as the Kraken, with a 3-1 lead if they win tonight, near the Western Conference Finals.