NHL Daily Fantasy Helper: Wednesday 4/12/23
NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.
Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters. Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com and DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.
Let's jump in and take a look at today's slate and some players to consider for your lineups.
Goalie to Target
Ilya Sorokin ($8,500): I am not being hyperbolic when I say this is a literal must-win game for the New York Islanders. If they win this game, they are in the playoffs; if they lose, they are out. It's as simple as that and it comes down to their best player, Ilya Sorokin. He has been one of the best goalies in the league this year -- as shown by his 39.2 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx), which is the third-best in the league.
The Isles are big -385 home favorites against the Montreal Canadiens, making this the most ideal matchup you could possibly ask for. Over the last two weeks, the Canadiens are scoring 1.27 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the absolute worst mark in the NHL. They have an elite goalie against the actual worst offense in recent weeks. I don't say this often, but Sorokin has legitimate shutout potential tonight.
High Salaried Skaters
Brock Nelson ($6,700): The Islanders have a 3.52 implied goal total tonight and, obviously, need to find the offense against the lowly Canadiens. Over the last two weeks, the Canadiens are allowing 3.31 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, putting them as the eighth-worst team in the league. This is a big plus matchup for the Islanders since over that same time, they are only scoring 2.30 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations (22nd in the league).
Nelson has the most NHL points (73) on the Isles this season and enters with 8 of such in his last 10 games along with 16 shots on goal. He's skating on the second forward line and the first power-play unit, putting him in a spot to jump on this weak Canadiens' defense.
It's do-or-die time for the Islanders, and if their best offensive player doesn't contribute, they likely don't stand a chance tonight.
Jason Robertson ($9,800): The Dallas Stars have clinched a playoff spot in the Western Conference but can still move up in the standings to secure the top seed in the Central Division. Having home-ice advantage is always something teams are aiming for, and that puts the Stars near the top of the list in terms of motivation.
The matchup against the St. Louis Blues has a 6.5-goal total, which is a good indication we could be seeing plenty of scoring tonight. That won't be anything new for these teams. Over the last two weeks, both teams are in the top 12 of the league for the most goals scored per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, giving us a strong game environment to attack.
Robertson is on the top forward line and the top power-play unit, coming in with 18 NHL points, 34 shots on goal, and 5 blocked shots over his last 10 games. It's not a stretch to say he is the clear top option on a small, three-game slate.
Value Skaters
Andrew Mangiapane ($4,500): With the Calgary Flames are San Jose Sharks both eliminated from the playoffs, it could open things up for a free-flowing, offensive-minded game tonight. The Flames were fighting for a playoff spot until just two days ago, which led to slower, lower-scoring games. They are now out of the race, which, hopefully, gives them more freedom on the offensive end to post a big game to close out the season.
Over the last two weeks, the Sharks are allowing a whopping 4.05 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the third-worst in the league. They've been a horrible defense all season, and we have just a few final chances to attack them, so we can't pass that up. Mangiapane offers some good value with his role on the second forward line and the first power-play unit, which has allowed him to rack up 8 NHL points and 23 shots on goal over his last 10 games.
Steven Lorentz ($3,700): On the other side of the Flames, we have Lorentz for the Sharks. He's playing a rather large offensive role given his affordable salary.
Lorentz is now up on the second forward line and the first power-play unit all while being under $4K. That's not a role we often see for a player at that salary, and given the roster constraints of a small three-game slate, he is looking like a key value option.
That role has led to Lorentz being decently productive with 3 NHL points, 20 shots on goal, and 8 blocked shots in his last 10 games.
