NHL Daily Fantasy Helper: Thursday 3/16/23
NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.
Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters. Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com and DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.
Let's jump in and take a look at today's slate and some players to consider for your lineups.
Goalie to Target
Sergei Bobrovsky ($7,600): The Florida Panthers are massive -365 home favorites against the Montreal Canadiens, putting Bobrovsky in a spot for an easy win. As usual, I like to target the differential between the moneyline and the goalies' salary when there is a big discrepancy -- as we see tonight with Bobrovsky.
That moneyline puts the Panthers as the largest favorites on the slate, yet Bobrovsky is the 12th-highest-salaried goalie on the slate. That simply doesn't add up and with how well the Panthers have been playing on defense, and we want the best win equity we can get. Over the last month, the Panthers are allowing just 1.78 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the second-best in the league.
That has led to Bobrovsky allowing three goals or fewer in 8 of his last 10 games, which is a level he should be able to replicate tonight against the Habs.
Aleksander Barkov ($7,900): With the Panthers being such heavy moneyline favorites (-365), we see them rocking a slate-high 4.06 implied goal total tonight. That shouldn't be a surprise since the Canadiens are allowing 3.28 goals and a 67.81 Corsi Against (Total Shot Attempts Allowed) per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, both of which are in the bottom six of the league over the last month.
They've been a terrible defense all season, and nothing has changed over the last month, so we're going to continue to target them whenever they are on the slate. Over that same time frame, the Panthers are scoring 2.79 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is 15th in the league, but they're actually underproducing goals.
If we look at their Corsi For (Total Shot Attempts Created) per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, they are up at 73.68, which tops the league over the last month. They are producing the most shot attempts but only scoring the 15th-most goals. That doesn't add up. If we look at their expected goals scored (xGF), they should be up at 3.54 goals, which would be...drumroll, please...the best in the league. Shocking how that works; the team taking the most shot attempts should be scoring the most goals.
They're on the verge of an offensive breakout, and with this matchup against the Canadiens, we could see the floodgates open tonight. This is where Barkov comes into the fold with his role on the top forward line and the first power-play unit. He has a modest 8 NHL points and 28 shots on goal over his last 10 games, but with the offense due for some positive regression, those should start trending up tonight.
Viktor Arvidsson ($6,000): Here's the thing -- Viktor Arvidsson is going to score a goal tonight. As usual, there's plenty to support this claim, so let's dive in. First off, the Los Angeles Kings have a juicy 3.96 implied goal total against the Columbus Blue Jackets, which puts them in a great spot. This season, the Blue Jackets are allowing 3.13 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the third-worst in the league.
This matchup is perfect for the Kings' offense, which has turned things up to a new level and is scoring the eighth-most (3.02) Goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations over the last month.
When it comes to Arvidsson, he is on the second forward line and the second power-play with a role as a primary shooter. He hasn't scored a goal in his last seven games, but in that time, he has 4 assists and a whopping 41 shots on goal. Over five shots on goal per game are what dreams are made of and Arvidsson -- somehow -- hasn't been able to find the back of the net. With this favorable matchup, Arvidsson should be able to finally find it.
Elias Pettersson ($9,700): Petterson is an elite offensive player, and with the Vancouver Canucks carrying a 3.49 implied goal total against the Arizona Coyotes, it won't be a surprise to see him rack up the fantasy points tonight. Over his last 10 games, he has 12 NHL points, 31 shots on goal, and 13 blocked shots. We're getting production from him every single night, and that won't be stopping with this matchup.
This season, the Coyotes are allowing 2.75 goals and a 61.15 Corsi Against per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, both of which are in the bottom 10 of the league. Pettersson is on the top forward line and the first power-play unit, which will put him in a spot for plenty of chances on offense tonight.
Jordan Eberle ($5,300): The Seattle Kraken have a 3.59 implied goal total and are looking to end a three-game losing streak against the lowly San Jose Sharks. The Kraken are in the midst of a very tight race for a Wild Card spot in the Western Conference, and this is a clear get-right spot for them.
Over the last month, the Sharks are allowing 3.77 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the worst in the league. On the flip side, the Kraken are scoring 2.82 goals in the same situations, putting them at 14th in the league. This is a plus matchup for them to right the ship, which means we want to target their top offensive options.
Eberle is on the first forward line and the second power-play unit, coming in with 7 NHL points and 23 shots on goal over his last 10 games.
Wyatt Johnston ($4,900): In non-breaking news, the Edmonton Oilers are still struggling on defense. Over the last month, they are allowing 3.15 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the eighth-worst in the league. Add in the fact the Stars are right behind them at 3.08 goals allowed, and it's no surprise to see a 6.5 over/under tonight.
We want some exposure to this game, and Johnston is a solid value option to do so. Over his last 10 games, he has had 9 NHL points and 22 shots on goal while skating on the second forward line and the second power-play unit.