NHL Betting Guide: Monday 3/13/23
Monday's three-game slate has just one game showing a multi-star recommendation bet of any kind.
Where is it? Well, if you were watching late-night action on Saturday, it might feel like a repeat episode late Monday, too.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Dallas Stars at Seattle Kraken
Stars ML (-130) - 2 Stars
The Stars and Kraken just battled in Seattle on Saturday night. Dallas won a 4-3 overtime thriller.
Entering the second game of this mini "baseball series," why should we back them tonight at these shorter odds coming off such a close contest? Well, they did win the behind-the-scenes battle, too. Expected goals (xGF) were 2.43 to 2.13 in Dallas' favor a couple of nights ago.
Plus, the Stars have the long-term form over Seattle, and their goaltending is better. Dallas' expected-goals-for rate (xGF) is 58.7% since February 1st, which is the second-best rate in hockey. Seattle is just 12th (51.4%).
The goaltending gap is even wider. Seattle's Philipp Grubauer has had an odd year posting a modest 5.92 goals saved above expectation (GSAx), but Dallas' Jake Oettinger is running with the league leaders at 18.13 GSAx.
With rest obviously equal, our model thinks the Stars win this one 62.8% of the time. That's enough of a buffer to bet these 56.5% implied odds.