NHL Daily Fantasy Helper: Wednesday 3/8/23
NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.
Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters. Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com and DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.
Let's jump in and take a look at today's slate and some players to consider for your lineups.
Goalie to Target
Thatcher Demko ($7,400): The Vancouver Canucks are -230 home favorites and in a spot to come away with the win against the Anaheim Ducks, who are on the second night of a back-to-back. Demko is likely in net for the Cancuks, and despite a very mediocre year for him, he might be playing some of his best hockey lately. Over his last five starts, he has allowed three goals or fewer four times.
That is a level of production that could be extended tonight since the Ducks are one of the weakest offensive teams in the league. This season, the Ducks are scoring 2.09 goals and have a 50.88 Corsi For (Total Shot Attempts Created) per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, both of which are in the bottom five of the league. It's one of the easiest matchups a goalie could possibly have, and it puts Demko in a spot for the win.
High-Salaried Skaters
Elias Pettersson ($9,800): On top of having a bad offense, the Ducks also have a bad defense, which is actually getting worse. For the year, they are allowing 3.45 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is dead last in the league. Over the last month, they are allowing 3.63 goals in that situation, which is also the worst in the league. This presents opposing offenses with some serious upside, and that leads us directly to Pettersson tonight.
Pettersson skates on the top forward line and the top power-play for the Canucks, which allows him to reach for his fantasy ceiling every single night. That has been on full display recently as Pettersson is racking up the fantasy points every single night. Over the last 10 games, Pettersson has amassed 5 goals, 10 assists, 36 shots on goal, and 15 blocked shots.
He simply does it all for the Canucks, and with them rocking a slate-high 3.81 implied goal total, he will almost certainly be involved if they reach or exceed that mark.
Dylan Larkin ($7,100): Larkin and the Detroit Red Wings have a 3.27 implied goal total against the Chicago Blackhawks, which should be a spot for them to get back on track. The Red Wings are riding a six-game losing streak and need Larkin to drive their offense in this matchup.
He comes in with 7 NHL points, 24 shots on goal, and 5 blocked shots over his last 10 games while seeing time on the first forward line and the first power-play unit. Those are good -- but not great -- numbers for his role. Ideally, the shot volume would be a bit higher and give him a higher floor of points.
Hopefully, this matchup is one that can get him moving in the right direction. Over the last month, the Blackhawks have a 61.39 Corsi Against (Total Shot Attempts Allowed) per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the ninth-worst in the league. This is the type of matchup where we want to see as Larkin and the Red Wings pile on the offense tonight.
Value Skaters
Lukas Reichel ($3,000): We're dealing with a very small three-game slate, and that means finding value is a necessity. At the minimum salary, we have Lukas Reichel, the former first-round pick from the Blackhawks. He's been up and down between the AHL and the NHL this season, but he's back right now and has two NHL points over his last three games since being recalled.
I know, two points don't jump off the page, but he's been playing on the first forward line and the second power-play unit. That's a massive offensive role for any player -- let alone a player who is at the minimum salary. As noted above, the Red Wings are riding a six-game losing streak, so it's not as if their defense is a matchup to fear tonight.
Nino Niederreiter ($4,800): When it comes to offenses that are underproducing, the Winnipeg Jets might be at the top of the list. Over the last month, the Jets are scoring a meager 2.39 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the seventh-lowest in the league. However, if we look at their expected goals scored (xGF), they are up at 2.97 Goals, which is good for the ninth-best in the league.
They simply aren't finding the back of the night but are still doing the little things right that put them in a spot to score. They are due for some positive regression, and that makes them very intriguing from a fantasy perspective.
Since being traded to the Jets, Niederreiter has played four games that have led to three NHL points and nine shots on goal. He's up on the first forward line and the first power-play unit -- all while being under $5K tonight.
