NHL Daily Fantasy Helper: Tuesday 3/7/23
NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.
Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters. Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com and DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.
Let's jump in and take a look at today's slate and some players to consider for your lineups.
Goalie to Target
Andrei Vasilevskiy ($8,000): The Tampa Bay Lightning are struggling right now, and they simply need a win. A five-game losing streak is borderline shocking for one of the most consistent teams in the league over the past five yearsbut that is where we find Tampa, who still come in as -295 home favorites against the Philadelphia Flyers, tonight.
This line speaks more to the state of the Flyers' lineup, which has been downright awful over the last month. During that time, they are scoring 1.65 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the second-worst in the league. They are also allowing 2.88 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is good for the 11th worst in the league. This is a very clear bounce-back spot for the Lightning, putting Vasilevskiy in a spot to pick up the win.
High-Salaried Skaters
Nathan MacKinnon ($10,400): Another team trying to snap a losing streak would be the Colorado Avalanche, who have a slate-high 4.09 implied goal total against the San Jose Sharks. A three-game losing streak for the Avalanche has seen them slip in the standings, but this is a winnable matchup for them to get back on track.
The Sharks come in allowing 3.07 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations over the last month, which is the fifth-worst in the league. They're also sporting a 58.48 Corsi Against (Total Shot Attempts Allowed) in the same situations, which is the 11th-worst mark in the league. They are a bottom-tier defense, and this should lead to another multi-point performance from MacKinnon.
Over the last 10 games, MacKinnon has 16 NHL points, 53 shots on goal, and 6 blocked shots. He has immense fantasy upside in this matchup and will continue to be an elite option in all formats.
Jake Guentzel ($6,700): Guentzel is going to score a goal tonight; sorry for the spoilers. That is my take for tonight, and there's plenty to back it up. Guentzel has been a borderline elite goal-scorer for a few seasons, and we've come to expect a certain level of production from him. He plays on the first forward line and the first power-play unit for the Pittsburgh Penguins, which puts him in a great spot to produce.
Tonight, they're going up against the Columbus Blue Jackets, which gives the Penguins a very strong 4.03 implied goal total. This season, the Blue Jackets are allowing 3.06 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the fourth-worst in the league. They also have a 64.46 Corsi Against, which is the second-worst in the league.
Over his last six games, Guentzel has 20 shots on goal but no goals. A high volume of shots, a priority offensive role, and an elite matchup should put him in a spot for some positive regression to find the back of the net.
Value Skaters
Jared McCann ($5,800): McCann has 30 goals this season for the Seattle Kraken and is still under $6K. He's on the first forward line and the second power-play unit, coming in with 11 NHL points and 31 shots on goal over his last 10 games. That type of offensive production should make their players very popular tonight given their soft matchup.
This season, the Kraken are scoring 3.09 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the second-best in the league. The Kraken rocking a 4.03 implied goal total tonight against the Anaheim Ducks, who are allowing a league-worst 3.45 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations this season.
Alex Killorn ($4,700): Killorn has been sneaky consistent for the Lightning lately with 7 NHL points, 15 shots on goal, and 6 blocked shots in his last 10 games. Those aren't massive numbers, but Killorn is under $5K while playing on the second forward line and the first power-play unit. That is an awesome role to have for a team that's sporting a 3.68 implied goal total tonight against the lowly Flyers.
