NHL Betting Guide: Monday 3/6/23

Can Jacob Markstrom turn things around tonight for Calgary, or will the red-hot Stars torch the goaltender in Dallas?

numberFire's model isn't showing a ton of value on Monday's short slate, but it's best bet is a dandy.

When looking at the six games, which spot stands above the rest?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Calgary Flames at Dallas Stars

Stars ML (-132) - 3 Stars

This game is a beautiful showcase of how impactful goaltending can be.

Since January 1st, the Flames' skaters have been performing as well as anyone. They're sixth in expected goals scored (xGF) per 60 minutes, and they're first in expected goals allowed (xGA) per 60 minutes. That's a Stanley Cup contender if the goalie situation is right.

Dallas can boast the same. While they're just 12th in xGF per 60, they're just behind Calgary and sit 2nd in xGA per 60 minutes. Their offense is actually generating fewer chances, but they've amassed an 11-7-7 record in this period to Calgary's 9-10-6 record. How?

Simply, it's the goaltending. In terms of goals saved above expectation (GSAx), Dallas' Jake Oettinger is the fifth-best goalie in hockey (22.79 GSAx), and Calgary's Jacob Markstrom (-1.13 GSAx) has been a net negative in the crease.

Overall, our model believes Dallas wins 67.8% of the time tonight. Against these 56.9% implied odds, this is numberFire's best bet of the day, and I'm fully behind this one, too.