NHL Betting Guide: Wednesday 3/1/23
As someone who looks at goaltending metrics daily, the splash of the NHL trade deadline came yesterday in the move we were all waiting for. Of course, I'm talking about Jonathan Quick. You thought I meant Patrick Kane?
Our old friend whom we fade religiously is now a Blue Jacket, giving Columbus two of the four worse goalies in terms of goals saved above expectation (GSAx). That's a major commitment to the Conor Bedard sweepstakes.
On to today's bets.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Toronto Maple Leafs at Edmonton Oilers
Oilers ML (+112) - 2 Stars
One day, the Oilers will put their peripherals to paper, but the squad representing the Los Angeles Angels on skates can't seem to shake that label.
Edmonton has posted the fourth-most expected goals scored (xGF) and third-fewest expected goals allowed (xGA) per 60 minutes since January 1st. In that realm, they're around Calgary as the best-skating squad since the calendar turned.
Unlike the Flames, their problems aren't even in goal. Stuart Skinner is a sporty 11th in GSAx (11.99), which doesn't even leave the Oilers at a massive disadvantage tonight versus Toronto's Ilya Samsonov (14.65 GSAx).
The Leafs haven't quite been as good, but they're winning more in line with their peripheral data. Toronto is eighth in xGF per 60 minutes, and they're sixth in xGA per 60 minutes.
Edmonton has still been the better squad when you wrap it all together, and they're at home and rested. numberFire's model believes they win 55.2% of the time versus these 47.2% implied odds.
Arizona Coyotes at Dallas Stars
Coyotes +1.5 (+118) - 2 Stars
My intro focused on a team nosediving for Conor Bedard. The red-hot Coyotes are playing their way away from him.
Arizona has covered the spread in 9 of their last 11 contests, including a 4-1 win last night over Chicago. The Coyotes don't have many advantages, but one is their sensational goaltending tandem, which significantly reduces their decline on a back-to-back. Both tonight's starter, Connor Ingram (8.33 GSAx), and Karel Vejmelka (9.65 GSAx) have been top-20 performers this season.
Arizona will have a hard task to win tonight, but in a low-scoring game with a 5.5-goal total, I can bite on the notion they cover another spread. After all, Dallas has lost its last three home games to Vancouver, Chicago, and Columbus, while ceding at least four goals in each contest.
It's kind of hard to trust their xGA-per-60-minutes rate (2.70) in that case. The stellar Jake Oettinger (23.12 GSAx) was also the netminder in two of those three, so it's plausible it's an individual level of focus lost against these bad teams, and Arizona is another such squad.
Overall, our model believes the Yotes cover 52.6% of the time versus these 45.9% implied odds, and that value gap will only get larger if Dallas turns to backup goaltender Scott Wedgewood (1.74 GSAx).
