NHL Daily Fantasy Helper: Tuesday 2/21/23
NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.
Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters. Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com and DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.
Let's jump in and take a look at today's slate and some players to consider for your lineups.
Goalie to Target
Andrei Vasilevskiy ($8,900): The Tampa Bay Lightning are massive -550 home favorites against the Anaheim Ducks, giving Vasilevskiy the highest win equity of the night. The Lightning are back at home and enter on a two-game losing streak, which they should be able to break tonight against the lowly Ducks. Ultimately, the Lightning will be in a spot to win via their offense -- and the very weak defense on the other side.
Over the last three weeks, the Ducks are allowing a staggering 4.54 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the worst in the league. Compare that to their season-long rate of 3.59 goals allowed per 60, and they've managed to get even worse as the season has gone on. This should put the Lightning in a spot to pour in goals, bounce back after the losses, and hand Vasilevskiy a win.
Jack Hughes ($10,000): Jack is back. After missing several games due to an upper-body injury, Hughes returned on Saturday and already has two NHL points and eight shots on goals in his first two games back. That is the level of production we have been accustomed to seeing from Hughes this season, who returned to his spot on the second forward line and the first power-play unit.
The New Jersey Devils come in with a sizable 4.14 implied goal total against the Montreal Canadiens, which is a mark they could easily pass tonight. This season, the Devils are scoring 2.92 goals and have a 62.97 Corsi For (Total Shot Attempts Created) per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, both of which are the fourth-best in the league.
They have been one of the best offenses in the league, and that shouldn't be slowing down against the Canadiens, who are allowing 3.05 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations over the last three weeks (eighth-worst in the league).
Brayden Point ($8,100): With the Lightning being -550 home favorites, we see them carrying a slate-high 4.35 implied goal total against the Ducks. The Lightning offense has been good -- not great -- in recent weeks, but with a horrible defense on the other side, this could be a spot for them to turn the corner.
In the last three weeks, the Lightning are scoring 2.45 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is 21st in the league. That's truly nothing notable, but if we look at their expected goals scored (xGF) during that same time, they are up at 3.10, which would be the sixth-best in the league.
They are generating chances on offense but not scoring a ton, putting them in a spot for some positive regression. With Point on the first forward line and the first power-play unit, he should be firmly in the mix when it comes to Tampa scoring goals tonight. Over his last 10 games, he has 11 NHL points, 31 shots on goal, and 7 blocked shots.
Tyson Barrie ($5,500): The Edmonton Oilers desperately need a win against the Philadelphia Flyers tonight. The Oilers have dropped four straight games and are starting to see their playoff position slide, but they can look to right the ship tonight with a 4.34 implied goal total.
Barrie offers a way to get exposure to Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl since he skates on the first power-play unit with them. Barrie comes in with 6 NHL points, 13 shots on goal, and 12 blocked shots over his last 10 games, bringing a solid level of consistency and point-per-dollar production to your lineups.
Ryan O'Reilly ($4,700): The Toronto Maple Leafs made a trade for O'Reilly the other day and put him right into a primary offensive role. In his first game, O'Reilly skated on the second forward line and the second power-play unit, which is a great role to have in a powerful offense.
The Leafs have a 3.62 implied goal total against the Buffalo Sabres, who are allowing the third-most (4.03) Goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations over the last three weeks. This is a great matchup for O'Reilly to grab his first point as a Maple Leaf.