NHL Daily Fantasy Helper: Monday 1/23/23
NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.
Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters. Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com and DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.
Let's jump in and take a look at today's slate and some players to consider for your lineups.
Goalie to Target
Igor Shesterkin ($8,200): The New York Rangers are -152 home favorites against the Florida Panthers and will likely have Shesterkin in net. This matchup ultimately comes down to a few things that point in the Rangers' favor. First off, the Rangers are super strong on defense and in net, allowing 1.76 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations over the past two weeks, which is the fourth-best in the league.
The Rangers' offense is also due for some major positive regression since they are only 1.00 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations over the past two weeks, but if we look at their expected goals scored (xGF), they should be at 2.73. The Panthers will have third-string goalie, Alex Lyon, in net tonight, which should benefit the Rangers' offense and power to Shesterkin to a win.
Jason Robertson ($9,900): The Dallas Stars have a 3.61 implied goal total tonight and a soft matchup against the Buffalo Sabres, which could put things in a spot for a very high-scoring game. With a total of 6.5, we are expecting plenty of scoring tonight, and if that is the case for the Stars, Robertson is likely going to be involved.
Over his last 10 games, Robertson has 10 NHL points, 38 shots on goal, and 3 blocked shots. The high shot volume is awesome to see and gives him a solid floor of fantasy points on a nightly basis. His role on the first forward line and the first power-play unit will give him access to a high ceiling.
The Sabres are struggling on defense right now, allowing 3.31 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations over the past two weeks (seventh-worst in the league).
Elias Lindholm ($6,900): Lindholm and the Calgary Flames have a slate-high 4.14 implied goal total tonight against the Columbus Blue Jackets -- a team with their eyes set on the draft. The Blue Jackets have been among the worst defenses all season and come in allowing a 63.28 Corsi Against (Total Shot Attempts Allowed) and 3.33 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, both of which are the second-worst in the league.
This allows opposing teams to regularly hit their fantasy ceiling, making the Flames' skaters a very appealing option tonight. Lindholm is seeing time on the first forward line and the first power-play unit, which has allowed him to rack up 9 NHL points, 21 shots, and 7 blocked shots in his last 10 games.
Filip Chytil ($5,000): As noted above, the Rangers are due for some serious positive offensive regression soon, and we can look to capture that via some of their value options. They have a 3.50 implied goal total against the Panthers, who -- as mentioned -- are rolling out their third-string goalie tonight.
Chytil is on the third forward line and the second power-play unit, coming in with 7 NHL points, 25 shots on goal, and 6 blocked shots in his last 10 games. That is strong point-per-dollar production for a depth player.
Michael Bunting ($5,800): The Toronto Maple Leafs have a 3.53 implied goal total against the New York Islanders, a team due for some regression on defense. Over the last two weeks, the Islanders have only 1.93 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the seventh-best in the league. That is certainly good but if we look at their Expected Goals Against (xGA), that is all the way up at 3.06 goals, which would be the fifth-worst in the league.
That is a serious differential, and the floodgates are going to open soon against them. This gives opposing players some value, and that could mean Bunting tonight. He's on the first forward line and the second power-play unit with 7 NHL points and 20 shots on goal over his last 10 games.